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Article
Jonathan Goyette
University of sherbrooke
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7135-4709
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Using data on 172 countries from 1946 until 2014, this paper examines how time-wise variations in temperature at the country level interacted with cross-country variations in agricultural potential impact the incidence of civil conflicts. In the analysis, countries exhibiting high agricultural potential act as a control group for countries with a lower agricultural potential and variations in temperature act as a treatment from one period to the next. This allows identifying the causal impact of the interaction on conflict incidence. We find that deviations in annual or decennial temperature are conducive to a higher probability of being in conflict in countries with lower agricultural potential. The findings have important policy implications to predict, avoid or mitigate conflicts related to climate change.
Keywords
agricultural potential, civil conflict, climate change
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- SupplementaryMaterialanonym.pdf
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A new preprint design is coming!
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Article
Jonathan Goyette
University of sherbrooke
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7135-4709
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
View the published article at Ecological Economics.
Version 1
Posted 09 Oct, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Ecological Economics.
Using data on 172 countries from 1946 until 2014, this paper examines how time-wise variations in temperature at the country level interacted with cross-country variations in agricultural potential impact the incidence of civil conflicts. In the analysis, countries exhibiting high agricultural potential act as a control group for countries with a lower agricultural potential and variations in temperature act as a treatment from one period to the next. This allows identifying the causal impact of the interaction on conflict incidence. We find that deviations in annual or decennial temperature are conducive to a higher probability of being in conflict in countries with lower agricultural potential. The findings have important policy implications to predict, avoid or mitigate conflicts related to climate change.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- SupplementaryMaterialanonym.pdf
Supplementary material
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