This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research
Rozita Moayedfar
University of Isfahan
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5996-9380
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Investigation of the temperature over a 100-year period shows that the Earth's temperature has increased by 0.7 °C since 1800, and that the average global temperature is likely to increase between 1.8 and 6.4 °C in 2100. Even with significant advances in ways to prevent temperature increase, 3 °C temperature increase or more is likely to occur in the present century. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes predicts climate changes; especially rising temperature will pose challenges for the Mena region throughout the 21st century. Therefore, the main objective of the present study is to assess implementation of policies to exclude and reform fossil fuel subsidies in order to control temperature increase and the effect of implementing these policies on economic variables (GDP, per capita consumption, capital accumulation, and employment). The countries of the Mena region are up to the time horizon of 2100. For this purpose, the dynamic Regional Integrated Climate -Economy Model (RICE) was used. The results show that in the long run (until the end of the 21st century) if no policy is implemented to prevent temperature increase and subsidies for carbon continue, the average global temperature will reach 4.74 °C and if the policy If policy of exclusion of fossil fuel subsidies is applied, the average global temperature will increase by 4.49 °C, and if the policy of reforming fossil fuel subsidies (mark-up on carbon) is implemented, the average global temperature will increase by 4.24 °C. Also, the trend of parameters of GDP, per capita consumption, capital accumulation, employment and industrial carbon emissions have been assessed using different scenarios.
JEL Classification: Q54, D58, Q51, Q43
Keywords
Climate Change, Dynamic Integrated Regional Climate and Economic Model, Global Warming, Preventive Policies
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 24 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Learn more about our company.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research
Rozita Moayedfar
University of Isfahan
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5996-9380
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 24 Sep, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Investigation of the temperature over a 100-year period shows that the Earth's temperature has increased by 0.7 °C since 1800, and that the average global temperature is likely to increase between 1.8 and 6.4 °C in 2100. Even with significant advances in ways to prevent temperature increase, 3 °C temperature increase or more is likely to occur in the present century. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes predicts climate changes; especially rising temperature will pose challenges for the Mena region throughout the 21st century. Therefore, the main objective of the present study is to assess implementation of policies to exclude and reform fossil fuel subsidies in order to control temperature increase and the effect of implementing these policies on economic variables (GDP, per capita consumption, capital accumulation, and employment). The countries of the Mena region are up to the time horizon of 2100. For this purpose, the dynamic Regional Integrated Climate -Economy Model (RICE) was used. The results show that in the long run (until the end of the 21st century) if no policy is implemented to prevent temperature increase and subsidies for carbon continue, the average global temperature will reach 4.74 °C and if the policy If policy of exclusion of fossil fuel subsidies is applied, the average global temperature will increase by 4.49 °C, and if the policy of reforming fossil fuel subsidies (mark-up on carbon) is implemented, the average global temperature will increase by 4.24 °C. Also, the trend of parameters of GDP, per capita consumption, capital accumulation, employment and industrial carbon emissions have been assessed using different scenarios.
JEL Classification: Q54, D58, Q51, Q43
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
This preprint is available for download as a PDF.
Loading...