The local implications of a macrostrategy on the villagers and the environment

13 Nature subcontracted mankind for temporary management stipulating a rigor that does not 14 disregard the smallest details because this is where the difference between perfection and 15 riskiness lies, which inevitably leads to disasters. It establishes binding general rules and 16 local imperatives to be fulfilled otherwise it takes back the reins. For this reason, anthropic 17 macrostrategies must frame their priorities and objectives according to a sustainable social- 18 ecosystem. Here, we evaluate the environmental effect of the triggered landuse change of the 19 metropolis-portuary-industrial park of Tangier (Strait of Gibraltar) on ecosystem services 20 (i.e. vegetation and water) and anticipate their interactions with indigenous villagers. We 21 established a multifactorial analysis including long-term (1985-2021) land-use dynamic 22 assessment, 16-years pixel-based Mann-Kendall phenological trend, EPM soil erosion 23 modelling and assessment of the total volumes of the detached soil, and an NDVI/NDWI 24 monthly drought monitoring. Later, we compared is likely to worsen natural weaknesses, which are already at the origin of a massive potential loss of soil estimated at 1.2 kg/m²/year. We correlated the negative phenological trend with 29 the lane of the roads and infrastructure and we observed that severe drought episodes are 30 long, frequent and at short intra and interannual intervals. We found a statistically significant 31 association between the low level of education and the rural seclusion with the environmental 32 degradation and the unavailability of water which can evoke serious risks. We anticipate the 33 urgent need for an inclusive reform that implements a behavioral culture, encourages 34 education, and creates social facilitation to build an upward spiral that produces better 35 conditions and more opportunities for the rural society. Broadly, Managers should integrate 36 scientific instructions to master the details and continuously improve macrostrategies to 37 achieve integral and lasting success. 38


41
Economic and social development results in positive changes at various levels, which create wealth and lead to 42 the improvement of well-being. Achieving this much desired goal requires the creation of long-term macro-43 strategies where influencing factors intersect in a complex and unpredictable way. These unforeseen events, often 44 qualified as "surmountable", can locally trigger unprecedented mutations likely to be accentuated in the presence 45 of structural vulnerabilities and the systematic recurrence of extreme climatic phenomena. 46 interactions are very few despite being a pivotal framework for understanding, predicting, and neutralizing 56 negative impacts on the environment and population, and building resilience (He and Silliman, 2019; Viccaro et 57 al., 2019). 58 The contribution of this paper lies in the fact that it tackles a multifactorial analysis to understand the implications 59 of a major North African port-industrial strategic project on the environment and the surrounding rural population. 60 The objective was to evaluate the environmental impact of the triggered land-use change on ecosystem services 61 (i.e. vegetation and water) and anticipate their interactions with indigenous villagers. 62 The specific objectives of the environmental assessment were (i) to examine the pattern of cover changes based 63 on temporal landuse dynamics based on long-term high-resolution images  We have approached this research to help straighten out the course of this core project, make it inclusive of the 73 Sustainable Development Goals, and help build social resilience. 74 response is slow, mainly torrential with peaks closely related to precipitation. Drainage density evokes a dominant 112 permeable geological material and/or dense vegetative cover with moderate relief. The hypsometric integral is a 113 function of the degree of dissection of the watershed and the relative age of the relief. In our case, it indicates that 114 the watershed has reached the stage of maturity which means from a geomorphic point of view a great susceptibility 115 to produce debris flows and that the solid content of the gully is abundant ( Table 1). These observations suggest 116 vulnerability to small-scale geohazards, such as flash floods, debris flows, shallow landslides, and slow extensive 117 landslides, which can converge into a single large-scale disaster. 118 Geologically, the watershed includes Flysch structures (Melloussa, Beni Ider, and Tisirene units) formed by more 119 or less thick sandstone beds interspersed with compact clays (Salhi et al., 2020a). These structures, which favour 120 erosion and landslides, dominate over 79% of the overall surface against 18% for the Tangier unit (composed of 121 impermeable clays) and Quaternary deposits downstream and around the main tributaries (3%). 122 The watershed gives rise to 15 scattered villages, divided between five rural communes (Melloussa, Ksar Seghir, 123 Bahraouiyin, Anjra, and Jouamaa) which belong to the province of Fahs-Anjra. It includes a weekly rural market 124 (Melloussa) and is neighboring by several, the most important of which are those of Ksar Seghir and Khemis 125 Anjra. The population in the basin increased from 10,389 to a 13,881 between 1994 and 2014, with an annual 126 growth rate of 1.38%, while the number of families increased in the same period from 2,035 to 3,117. 127

Soil erosion modelling 129
The modelling of soil erosion is evaluated based on the Erosion Potential Model (EPM) which considers four 130 factors that depend on geology and soils, topography, climate factors (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and landuse 131 (Gavrilovic, 1988). The coefficient of erosion and sediment yield (Z) is assessed according to equation 1: 132 where Y is the coefficient of the rock and soil resistance to the erosion which vary between 0.25 and 2, Xa is the 133 landuse coefficient which vary between 0.05 and 1, Ψ is the coefficient of the observed erosion process which vary 134 between 0.1 and 1, and Ja is the average slope gradient (%) of the watershed calculated directly from the digital 135 elevation model (Aster GDEM V2 in our case). The assessment of the coefficient of the rock and soil resistance to erosion used the available data from the Geological Service of Morocco and partial data of the Moroccan Soil 137 Map Database (Fertimap). 138 The analysis of high-resolution satellite acquisitions (Sentinel 2) in 2019 (10 m) was completed by fieldwork to 139 identify the patterns and consequences of erosion. These consequences are damage caused by major erosion events 140 and sedimentation near tributaries. Land use was divided into five classes (built, barren, rangelands, forests and 141 mixed / irrigated rainfed agriculture) according to a classification system approved beforehand (Farhan and 142 Nawaiseh, 2015). 143 The assessment of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was directly extracted for the entire study 144 area from the EOS Land viewer API according to the following specifications: 145 − Sensor: Sentinel-2 L2A 146 − Acquisition data: June, 6 th 2019 147 − Cloud cover: 0% 148 − Solar elevation: 72% 149 The pluviometric data was extracted from the spatialization of regional copious (53 stations) long-term (i.e.  (Tangestani, 2006). Later, the total annual volume of detached soil (Wa in m 3 /year) was estimated 155 according to equation 2 (Gavrilovic, 1988): 156 Where Pa is the average annual precipitation (mm), and T is a temperature coefficient calculated based on the 157 average annual temperature (T0 in °C) according to equation 3: 158 Afterwards, the annual great integral value of each of the 16 years was evaluated at the pixel level to calculate the 170 spatiotemporal trends of the phenological metrics based on the standardized Mann-Kendall (Kendall, 1975;Mann, 171 1945) and the Sen's slope tests (Sen, 1968) with a p-value considered significant at a confidence level of 0.05. The 172 test outputs were classified as negative trend, positive or non-significant (Salhi et al., 2020b). 173

Landuse dynamics 174
The landuse temporal analysis uses the "Landviewer" cloud service which provides access to satellite data and 175 rapid analyzes. This 'Earth Observing System (EOS) Data Analytics' service allows ready to use historical Sentinel 176 and Landsat scenes (among others) to monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics for large periods (between 1985 and 177 2021 in our case) ( Table 2). The choice of scenes was influenced by cloud cover and scene quality (for instance, 178  210 We developed this research in a watershed that reflects the general rural conditions in Northern Morocco, known 211 for its natural and cultural richness and diversity but which constitutes a focal point of rural abandonment and 212 international migratory flows. The coastal aspect and the situation halfway between attractive towns and a large 213 strategic port strongly influence the living conditions and the perception of the villagers of a rapidly changing 214 territory. 215

Countryside households' survey
The study was designed to understand the socio-economic indicators and drivers of transformation perceived by 216 the villagers. We conducted a household survey in 3 villages selected to be representative of the different 217 geographic elements and accessibility to basic infrastructure. A group of PhD investigators was guided by the key 218 informants interviewing households using semi-structured questionnaires. They were previously coached by an 219 expert on the methods of carrying out the survey, communicating the questions and interpreting the answers. Their 220 skills were tested and approved in a preparatory survey. 221 171 of households were selected according to the Cochran's corrected equation (equation 6), by means of stratified 222 random sampling proportional to size (Cochran, 1977). Certainly, households were updated on the purpose, 223 voluntariness, and anonymity of the survey.. 224 Where n0 is the sample size at a selected alpha level of 1.96 and a confidence level of 95%. 225 The questionnaire consisted of three sections: (i) basic household information, (ii) living conditions and (iii) 226 attitudes and opinions towards environmental quality and issues. The statistical interpretation included the 227 descriptive statistics and Chi-squared test (Chi²) at a significance level alpha of 0.05 based on the Xlstat add-in for 228 Microsoft Excel which allows complex statistical assessments. 229 Potential soil erosion shows severe erosion (7.5%) concentrated where there is infrastructure, abandoned quarries, 232 roads and railways while moderate erosion (10.9%) is scattered throughout the watershed (Fig. 2). The prevalent 233 erosion patterns are sheet erosion, elemental and generalized gullying. Excluding roads and infrastructure, the 234 watershed contains natural spaces with gentle slopes and scattered villages where the lowest rates are observed. 235

Results
The good news is that most of the watershed is subject to slight erosion (81.6%), hence the value of ending the 236 problem early. 237 Evidently, natural factors such as lithological fragility and climatic aggressiveness are active precursors of soil 238 erosion but anthropic intervention is preponderant in our case and is likely to aggravate the natural weaknesses. In In our case, the great integrals show a significant spatiotemporal vegetation variability in the study period (Fig. 3). The analysis of phenological trends (Fig. 4)  have not caused a clear trend so far but could be at risk of deterioration, given the fragility of the topsoils. 262 Long-term landuse dynamics (Fig. 5)  At a smaller time-scale (months), the changes between NDWI (water content) and NDVI (vegetation) are well 275 correlated both at the level of the corresponding mean curve as for the ranges (Fig. 6). It is observed that the 276 maximum NDWI curve barely reaches the threshold of 0.5 (attributable to water masses) for short periods (a few 277 weeks) and then oscillates below for the rest of the year. The NDVI follows this pattern and its average curve 278 barely exceeds the 0.6 threshold (dense vegetation) for one or two months and then decreases for the rest of the 279 year. 280 Indeed, severe drought events are frequent and at short intervals; this is the case of the droughts of February and 281 May 2016, the repercussions of which have been shown above. Immediately after reaching the corresponding 282 NDVI and NDWI thresholds, the rapid falls bear witness to the immediate and prolonged start of the dry season. 283

Households' perception 284
The survey results include information on households, living conditions and perception of the environment. The 285 results were described statistically and the association between variables were tested based on Chi² categorical test while the majority of them (74.1%) were of middle-aged. Families are often large (more than 6) or made of 3 up 288 to 5 members (47%). The heads of household are often married men who live in the same village of their birth. 289 Similar to the official data, the majority of respondents (93.1%) were illiterate or barely having primary education 290 (HCP, 2014)). It is also observed that the main activity is agriculture (27.2%) while the inactive are 15% mainly 291 because they have reached retirement age. The majority of respondents own their households, which increasingly 292 acquire the apparent urban character even though it is a rural area. Indeed, the increase in the percentage of 293 apparently urban households in rural areas is increasingly observed in northern Morocco. 294 Obviously, there is a significant association (p-value = 0.010) between low level of education and types of activity 295 that do not require a specific level of education. Significantly, 54.4% of farmers are illiterate and 45.6% have 296 reached primary school at most. All the women heads of households are unfortunately illiterate. 297 A significant association (p-value = 0.008) is also observed between confusion regarding the dangers of the forest 298 and low level of education, regardless of profession. The same observation is repeated when comparing the low 299 level of education and the favorable opinion on the use of pesticides (p-value = 0.005) and the use of fertilizers (p-300 value = 0.011). 301 Drinking water is mainly supplied by the public network (39%) and then by dug wells or by purchasing cistern 302 water while direct use of springs is very rare. In general, adults are responsible for bringing water to homes that 303 are not connected to the public water supply network. The electricity network covers the entire study area and 304 supplies almost 97% of households. 305 A strong association (p-value = 0.025) can also be observed between the sector of activity and the most frequent 306 places of mobility: farmers and housewives move more locally. 307 Shopping is the main driver of villagers' trips followed by work, and it should be noted that the most common trips 308 are made locally or in the immediate vicinity. The attractiveness of large cities appears (in ascending order) when 309 it comes to pursuing higher education, receiving certain administrative services not available in the immediate 310 vicinity, shopping in large markets or receiving health services. 311 infrastructures. Significantly, there is a close association between most urgent need and gender (p-value = 0.04) 314 on the one hand and sector of activity on the other; women and farmers express a greater need for drinking water. 315 When it comes to attitude and opinion towards the environment, all households dump sewage into septic tanks, 316 solid waste uncontrollably outdoor perceive the lack of intervention of municipal services in this regard. The lack 317 of water previously identified is combined with potential pollution problems in relation to direct discharges into 318 nature and the quantitative and qualitative deterioration during prolonged low-water periods. Besides, the use of 319 conventional fertilizers and pesticides is very widespread (93.3% and 66.7% respectively) which creates a risk of 320 pollution of natural waters. However, a small minority of respondents perceived at least once the pollution of 321 drinking water. The prevention of pollution is limited to unsystematic individual attempts by adding chlorine, 322 purification by tablets, or boiling water, while the majority (60.8%) are doing nothing to tackle the problem. The 323 low perception is accentuated when it comes to exposure to diseases linked to water pollution: only 1.1% answer 324 yes and all respondents cannot name a disease, except one of them. For farmers, the harvest is mostly traditional 325 for self-sufficiency. They claim not to be irrigated by wastewater directly, except that the flow of small rivers is 326 supported by polluted discharges especially in periods of low water. The same can be observed for the uncontrolled use of pesticides and fertilizers and its probable impacts on the 344 degradation of the environment and health: the villagers do not manage to link causes and their effects. 345 Undoubtedly, this constitutes a high risk on the health (by accumulation of pollutants, intoxication, etc.) of the 346 villagers because 90.5% consume their crops locally. However, almost all of them have never observed diseases 347 associated with the use of polluted water (drinkable and irrigation). The reason is obvious, they are unable to 348 identify any waterborne disease due to their low level of education and poor environmental culture. 349 The use of the forest without a license is quite widespread by the villagers, but they do not think this poses a risk. The urgent need for drinking water already expressed by the villagers is likely to have more serious repercussions, 363 given the recurrence of prolonged severe intra and interannual droughts. These latter will also affect the type and 364 productivity of crops knowing that the products are mainly intended for self-sufficiency (Lionboui et al., 2021). 365 After a severe drought, heavy rains will cause deep erosion of the soil weakened by its lithological texture, climatic 366 conditions and inappropriate human activity (Salhi et al., 2021b). The emergence of a water-vegetation crisis by 367 the conjunction of these factors will constitute an alienating agent for the stability of the population, which will 368 originate a downward socioeconomic spiral. 369 The phenological assessment shows a dominant but misleading growing trend. In reality, the growth is located far 370 from the areas pressed anthropically and where fields of agriculture have been established. What is worrying is 371 that the negative trend follows perfectly the areas of infrastructure and roads that already divide the watershed. 372 From this perspective, spatial segregation by future roads and infrastructure can reverse the dominant trend and 373 reduce agricultural areas which will consequently affect the living conditions of the villagers. 374 In theory, the macrostrategy should allow the creation of special privileges in its environment, allowing the local 375 community to create and invest in its talents. Unfortunately, the preparation did not take into account the rural 376 dimension in the hinterland which is languishing under the weight of the lack of education. As a consequence, the 377 prolonged cohabitation with social and material constraints and restrictions made the local villagers receptive to 378 their current situation and not aspiring to improve it neither near them nor to think of immigrating to nearby cities 379 or to the other side of the Mediterranean (unlike villagers in many parts of North Africa). This will not allow them 380 to be easily in tune with the strategic dynamic that surrounds them because they have simply got used to their life 381 and show no desire to change their reality or that of their families. 382

383
The circumstances surrounding any strategic project are important to its formation and success. Taking care of it 384 is essential for further development, especially as the fine details and disparities grow overtime to make the 385 difference between success and failure. 386 Of course, macrostrategies are operationalized to serve as a locomotive for national economies and a lever for 387 development, but this must be done with great care on environmental and societal balances, especially in the 388 vicinity of its projects. 389 The current success of the young Tangier project deserves to be celebrated, but what is also important at this level 390 is to invest in the achievement of a more inclusive development for an integral socio-ecosystem that can reverse 391 the current worrying societal equation, creating an upward spiral that produces better conditions and more 392 opportunities for a rural society that has the capacity to sustain and keep pace with success.