Implication of Coal Expansion and Regional Energy Trading Center to Climate Goal: Dual Sustainability Analysis

14 This current study seeks to investigate the policy implication of Turkey’s recent energy policies 15 on its sustainable development. This study uses Turkey’s country-specific data and series of 1974 16 to 2018 for effective investigation and justification of the findings of this study with emphasis on 17 both short run and long run implications. Three models were fitted to achieve study objectives to 18 accommodate both environmental sustainability and economic impacts. Ecological footprint was 19 considered better measure and used as proxy for the environment related model. In summary, with 20 environment models, the selected series (per capita GDP, Industrialization, agriculture, coal as a 21 single energy use and mixed energy use) except per capita GDP 2 were found positively and 22 significantly related to ecological footprint both in short run and long run which translates to poor 23 performance of Turkey’s environment. Also, using economic growth model, the selected series 24 (Industrialization, energy use and agriculture) were all confirmed positively and significantly 25 related to the economic growth (per capita GDP). Additionally, Environmental Kuznets Curve 26 (EKC) was established for Turkey’s environment and economic performance. Furthermore, using 27 Granger causality as robust check to these findings, a nexus was found among the series confirming 28 the validity of the cointegration (short and long run policies) estimations and results. In congruence 29 with literature and hypotheses, the results from cointegration estimation shows that the twin 30 polices may be good to the economic performance but will spark off adverse effect on 31 environment.

and it is forecasted that Turkey is driving towards becoming one of the 10 largest economies 47 globally in the year 2023 (Yavuz ,2013;Monje, 2008). 48 Turkey is on the path of both industrial expansion and sustenance of the trend in industry and 49 economic development. Following the industrial expansion and businesses boom in Turkey, 50 energy remains a very significant factor in fostering the prosperity, economic growth and 51 development of the country. Turkey's demand for energy is overwhelming which is forecasted to 52 be on increasing trend even in the future (Ediger, 2011). The country's demand for energy is far 53 greater than its supply. In Turkey's 11 th development plan, it is remarked that the country's primary 54 energy demand is expected to increase to 18 percent by 2023 beyond 2018 levels. Turkey's energy 55 demand has been on the increase for some decades because of its rapid industrial development 56 with innovational plans (Kilic and Kaya, 2007). This has exposed Turkey into high importation of 57 two major energy sources (Natural gas and Oil) for sustenance of energy generation in the country. 58 In a way to minimize import of primary energy especially, hard coal and natural gas, Turkey's    Recently, Turkish government has commenced the process of limiting its over dependency on gas  proven to be the highest source of energy to Turkey, rather, it is geared towards mitigating the 97 dependency rate on import of natural gas. Because of Turkish strategic location and the perceived 98 increase on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) globally, the country is seriously working towards 99 making the most benefit of the situation. This is in line with Turkish eagerness to become a gas 100 trading hub considering its strategic position among many countries both in Europe and Asia. This, 101 they plan to achieve by developing both storage and regasification capacities in 2023.

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However, with the trend of economic expansion via industrial performance and business boom 103 leading to great stake in energy consumption and security, many energy economist and 5 environmentalists around the globe are worried as to environment and climate implication of both 105 industrial revolution and the twin policies (coal expansion and natural gas maximization via gas 106 market liberalization) of Turkish authorities. Following the path of industrialization has its 107 environmental cost, just like any other industrialized economies, Turkey has had to pay an 108 environmental price for its industrialization and economic growth expansion. The twin energy 109 policies (coal expansion and gas maximization) of Turkey for energy security through fossil fuels polluted air, soil to water stressed. Coal production is associated with production of high amount 125 of toxic ashes which are capable of polluting both the air and soil (Waldman and Caliskan, 2017).

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Powering of coal plant is water intensive project due to the application of wet cooling towers, and 127 this increases the water intake for electricity generation (El-Khozondar, 2017). This has some 128 economic implications when its impact is considered negative on the agriculture and food products 129 via global warming and shortage of water through water stress (Dudu and Çakmak, 2018). In sum, 130 Turkey's environment and climate is fast changing, and the effect will be felt across the country 6 6 because of the industrial expansion following the economic performance of Tukey the current 136 study seeks to research the impact of the current economic performance through industry on the 137 environment performance of Turkey. This is done by testing EKC for the case of Turkey by 138 applying a non-linear and historical pattern of economic growth (economic growth and squared 139 economic growth) and industry in the model for more and valid findings on the policy implication      The result did not support the EKC in the selected countries.   The rest of this current study is structured as follows: the second section gives a detailed theoretical 227 background of the study. The third, fourth and fifth sections analyze the methodology, empirical 228 analyses and conclusion of the paper, respectively.

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The above equations are re-specified in an estimable econometrics and empirical forms as follows: All the variables have been defined as they first appeared in Eq.  Table 1

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The empirical methods employed in this research are descriptive statistics, unit root testing, 328 structural break test, optimal lag selection, cointegration test, and causality analysis. of the data and the variables which is relatively higher than the variable that is not normal, author 342 considers linear scientific approach the best method for estimates and analyses of this study.      = ∅ + 1 −1 + 2 −1 + 3 2 −1 + 4 −1 + 5 −1 +

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The variables in equations (10)  (12) have been defined in the previous equations above. The    Table 7 Fig.8 CUSUM residual graphical plot for model 3 in Table 8 Fig.5 CUSUM 2 residual graphical plot for model 1 in Table 6 Fig.7 CUSUM 2 residual graphical plot for model 1 in Table 7 Fig.9 CUSUM 2 residual graphical plot for model 1 in The results displayed in the table above shows a unidirectional causal relationship between the