The Late Holocene evolution of Ástjörn
We selected AST-P2-18 as master core for this study owing to its greater (450 cm) length and recovery of surface sediments (see “Coring” under “Methods”). Investigation of a processed GPR profile across our coring site reveals a sharp facies change from continuous reflectors to reflection-free at 5 m sediment depth (Fig. 2D). This transition marks the sediment-bedrock boundary 33, and suggests that we retrieved the entire infill of Ástjörn. Field observations support this notion as bouncing of the hammer weights during coring suggested that an impenetrable surface was reached 34. Based on this evidence, we claim that the lake sits in an overdeepened bedrock basin – likely an extension of the paleoflood channel to the South (Fig. 3B; see “Setting”). Visual logging and multi-proxy stratigraphic analysis of core AST-P2-18 reveal 9 (numbered from the top) units that comprise 4 facies (Fig. 6): peat beds, organic lacustrine sediment, minerogenic slackwater deposits and intercalated overbank sediments.
First, the peat deposits of units 9 (base-440 cm) and 3 (212 − 178 cm) whose organic character is reflected by exceptionally high (45–100%) Loss on Ignition (LOI) percentages (Fig. 6). As evidenced by the widespread occurrence of roots and stems in both deposits, a boggy woodland occupied Ástjörn at the time of deposition. Unit 3 is bracketed by 14C ages that suggest rapid accumulation of up to 0.5 cm/yr (Fig. 5): similar growth rates have been reported for other Late Holocene sub-Arctic peatlands 35, 36. Because of the sharp contacts with adjoining facies (Fig. 6), we hypothesize that abrupt reorganizations in sub-surface drainage of the basin allowed these conditions. As demonstrated by 37, single floods can extensively modify the surface profile of Icelandic floodplains like the Axarfjörður sandur that borders Ástjörn (Fig. 3A). We note that material retrieved in our core catcher shows that unit 9 contains an additional ~ 10 cm of sediments, which minimizes the likelihood that this peat horizon was redeposited 7, and strengthens our confidence in the accuracy of the reported basal age of 4418–4589 cal. yr BP (see “Core chronology” and Supplementary Table 1).
Second, the dark-colored and coarse-textured clastic sediments of units 8 (440 − 342 cm) and 4 (248 − 212 cm). Closer examination of CT imagery reveals intercalated, laterally discontinuous organic horizons that consist of lumps of peat and fragments of roots or stems (Fig. 6). The thickest of these max. 2 cm lenses are captured by LOI peaks and Titanium (Ti) minima. The observed alternations have also been reported in similar channel-marginal basins up-stream 38, and are attributed to overspill flood deposition in line with evidence from other bedrock river canyons7. Under such circumstances, clastic sediments settle from suspension in overbank flows during discharge peaks, while light organics settle on top as the water recedes. Often, this dateable material is eroded from older deposits 39, which may explain the outlying age LuS 15023 in unit 8 (Supplementary Table 1 and Fig. 5). Based on the parallel orientation of separate sediment beds and the fine sand-dominated size distribution of particles (Figs. 6 and 7C), we argue that both units were deposited in the lower flow regime of seasonal floods. This interpretation is supported by the near-identical grain size distribution of catchment samples from a seasonally-flooded channel on the adjacent Axarfjörður sandur (Figs. 2A and 7C). The absence of buried soils and high accumulation rates also hint at frequent inundation.
Third, distinctly colored units 7 (342-304.5 cm), 5 (257.5–248 cm) and 2 (178 − 89.5 cm) that range from dark brown at their base to beige towards the top (Fig. 6). The uniformly dense (DBD; max. 1.2 g/cm3) and minerogenic character of these sediments, reflected by high (~ 1.4) Total Scatter Normalized (TSN) Ti ratios and low LOI (~ 2%), notably set them apart from the seasonal flood deposits of AST-P2-18. In addition, mean grain size data reveal a distinct normal grading from basal fine sands to upward-fining coarse silt-dominated caps in each unit (Fig. 6). In similar settings, such sequences characterize geologically instantaneous slackwater deposition during flood events 40, 41: sand first settles from inundating currents as flow velocity drops while the finer silts only fall out of suspension when waters pond. As discussed before, light organic detritus settles last and 14C ages from this flood-eroded material may be older than the time of deposition. This could explain the anomalous ages of samples LuS 14881(unit 7), LuS 14877 (unit 2) and LuS 15020 (unit 2), justifying our decision to identify them as outliers (Supplementary Table 1 and “Core chronology”).
Finally, the light brown-colored sediments of units 6 (304.5-257.5 cm) and 1 (89.5-0 cm). Elevated (10–15%) LOI values and high scattering ratios demonstrate a high organic content, while low (~ 1) TSN Ti ratios suggest minimal minerogenic input. The mean grain size (~ 30 µm) of clastic sedimentation falls in the medium silt fraction, which is considerably finer than other core facies (Fig. 6). With the notable exception of the dark visible ash layers targeted for tephra analysis (see “Methods”), all measured parameters and core photos show that both units are structureless (massive) and homogeneous. Based on this sediment signature and its overlap with modern deposition, we argue that units 1 and 6 were laid down when the Ástjörn basin was occupied by a lake that did not receive clastic material from the river or sandur. By deriving comparatively low accumulation rates, the presented chronology also indicates slow background sedimentation during these intervals (Fig. 5). Minerogenic input that entered the lake during these quiescent phases was likely wind-blown: their medium silt-dominated size distribution matches that of sediment sourced from nearby Dyngjusandur - Iceland’s largest source of dust 42 (Fig. 1). The katabatic southwesterly winds that prevail during the snow-free summer season frequently blow large plumes across Ástjörn 32.
Following from the above, we argue that the Late Holocene evolution of Ástjörn was characterized by multiple sharp transitions between terrestrial, lacustrine and fluvial sedimentation (Figs. 5 and 6). Shortly after the onset of (peat) accumulation in the basin prior to 4.5 cal. ka BP (unit 9), seasonal overbank floods deposited a sequence of organic-minerogenic couplets (unit 8). The graded sandy-to-silty minerogenic sequence of unit 7 marks the first phase of slackwater deposition in Ástjörn. Following this event, organic lacustrine conditions similar to today prevailed (unit 6), until the basin was inundated again (unit 5). The subsequent two centuries were marked by rapid (~ 0.5 cm/yr) overbank accretion (unit 4) and peat accumulation (unit 3). A third and final flood deposited the massive slackwater deposit of unit 2, before lacustrine background sedimentation resumed until the present (unit 1).
Core chronology
All sampled radiocarbon (n = 10; Supplementary Table 1) and tephra (n = 4) age ties were included in our linearly interpolated Clam-generated chronology (Fig. 5) 43. 14C ages were calibrated with the Intcal13 curve 44. We eschewed a Bayesian approach as the abrupt shifts between stratigraphic units in core AST-P2-18 indicate highly variable sedimentation rates; this restricts the ability of such models to robustly parameterize accumulation rate priors 45. Based on visual correspondence between piston core AST-P2-18 and gravity core AST-G2-18 (see “Coring” under “Methods”), we argue that no sediments were lost during coring; we thus assigned a zero age (2018 CE) to the core top. Basal age LuS 14882 shows that the sediment infill of Ástjörn covers the Late Holocene (past 4.5 ka). A number of inverted 14C ages suggest contamination with reworked material: to avoid mixing carbon sources, we exclude all 14C ages derived from bulk organic material from our chronology (Supplementary Table 1).
Correlation of the analyzed tephra horizons AST 1–4 to known eruptions is therefore key to a correct identification of outliers. To do so, we characterized the major elements data (expressed as oxides) using the approaches described for Icelandic tephra by 46. Based on minimal tailing, a homogenous layer thickness and an angular shard morphology (Supplementary Fig. 1), we argue all four horizons derive from primary air fall. All data, except for a sub-population (n = 7) of shards in chemically bi-modal layer AST4 (Supplementary Fig. 3), reveal a tholeiitic basaltic composition (Supplementary Data): this restricts their provenance to Iceland’s North (NVZ), West (WVZ) or East (EVZ) volcanic zones (Fig. 1). To correlate our horizons to active volcanoes in those zones, we relied on key discriminatory bi-plots established by 47 and 48. These notably include TiO2 vs. MgO to distinguish between VAK (Veiðivötn-Bárðarbunga, Askja, Krafla) and TGK (Thordarhyrna, Grímsvötn, Kverkfjöll) sources, and K2O vs. FeO to (better) separate a Veiðivötn-Bárðarbunga provenance from other TGK edifices (Fig. 4). Based on this assessment and with the help of Reference Compositional Fields (RCFs) for tephra from each of the foregoing systems 47, 48, each tephra horizon could be attributed to particular volcanoes. Even more so, with the additional support from our calibrated radiocarbon ages, we correlate each marker to a specific eruption (Fig. 4).
Horizon AST1 consists of two populations: the largest and most homogeneous (1–1; n = 15) has a Veiðivötn-Bárðarbunga affinity (Fig. 4A). While a Reykjanes Volcanic Belt (RVB) provenance cannot be excluded based on geochemical evidence, this option is ruled out by our radiocarbon-based chronology. No explosive eruptions of this system have been recorded during the last millennium, when AST1 was deposited 49. Linear interpolation between the core top (2018 CE) and the rangefinder 14C age at the base of unit 1 (LuS 15020; Supplementary Table 1) yields a 180 cal. yr BP age for horizon AST1 (Fig. 5). This estimate is consistent with a well-dated regional marker from Bárðarbunga; the 233 cal. yr BP V-1717 tephra 50, which was dispersed to the North across our field area 51. This correlation is further supported by the near-identical geochemistry of reference material (Fig. 4B). We should note that the geochemistry of a 1477 CE eruption from the same system is near-identical; however, this age falls far outside the constraints provided by our 2018 CE core top zero age and subjacent 14C ages (Fig. 5). While minor (n = 9) sub-set AST 1–2 is mixed, most shards show a geochemical affinity with the TGK Grímsvötn and Kverkfjöll volcanoes (Supplementary Fig. 2B). We favor a correlation with the former as the latter has not erupted during historical times 52.. Following from the above, we assign the reported 233 cal. yr BP age of V-1717 to AST1 50.
With the exception of three higher silica (SiO2 ≥ 52 wt. %) outliers, the analyzed shards from horizon AST2 (n = 27) reveal a homogeneous geochemistry that matches the composition of the Kverkfjöll volcano (Fig. 4C). This edifice has the lowest eruption frequency of all TGK volcanoes, 1 per millennium during the investigated Late Holocene 52; this greatly aids source identification. To achieve this, we rely on tephra data from the afore-mentioned Kárahnjúkar soil profile 52. This deposit contains a 1325 cal. yr BP old Kverkfjöll tephra (Kári1-113) that may be deposited by the last known eruption of this volcano – the coincident Lindahraun event e.g. 53. This age is also in broad agreement with the ~ 1500 cal. yr BP estimate for AST2 derived from linear interpolation between the core top and radiocarbon dating sample LuS 15020 at the base of unit 1 (Fig. 5). We confirm this correlation with two lines of geochemical evidence based on AST2 and Kári1-113 (n = 6) major element glass data: 1) the highly similar values of key Kverkfjöll discriminators TiO2 and MgO (see Fig. 4C), and 2) Similarity Coefficients (SCs) ≥ 0.95 (Supplementary Data), calculated on oxides with > 1 wt. % (n = 7) after 54, 55. As the chronology of the Kárahnjúkar profile is well-constrained by 21 known regional tephra markers, we assign its 1325 cal. yr BP age estimate to AST2 while also applying the 250 year uncertainty margin recommended for this record 56.
AST3 is also geochemically homogeneous and analyzed shards (n = 42) have a composition very similar to that of the TGK Grímsvötn volcano (Fig. 4D). Assuming instantaneous deposition of flood deposit unit 5 (see “The Late Holocene evolution of Ástjörn”), linear interpolation between included 14C ages LuS 14879 and LuS 15022 (Fig. 5 and Supplementary Table 1) suggests an age of ~ 1900 cal. yr BP. This places AST3 in a period characterized by a low eruption frequency of the highly active Grímsvötn system 52, 57, narrowing its likely source down to two candidates: the 1698 cal. yr BP G-Svart tephra 57, 58, or the 2436 cal. yr BP Layer 578–579 ash 57. Comparison with oxide data from both these eruptions reveals that the geochemistry of AST3 is indistinguishable from G-Svart (Fig. 4D).
AST4 contains three glass populations. Most shards (n = 31) display a compositional affinity with either the VAK Askja (AST4-1, n = 17) and Krafla (AST4-2, n = 12) volcanoes (Fig. 4E and Supplementary Fig. 3). The ~ 3100 cal. yr BP age that we derive for AST4 through linear interpolation between AST3 (G-Svart) and 14C sample LuS 15022 agrees with known eruptions of both volcanoes that have been dated but lack geochemical fingerprints. Askja, which produces tholeiitic magma although no basaltic tephras have been attributed to this system 59, 60, experienced fissure eruptions between 2900 and 3500 cal. yr BP 61. Perhaps more significantly, the only known Holocene explosive basaltic eruption of Krafla occurred around 2850 ± 250 cal. yr BP: this so-called Hverfjall event dispersed ash in the direction of Ástjörn 62. We consider the third small (AST4-3, n = 7) sub-set of AST4 shards, which likely derive from Katla (Supplementary Fig. 3), as outliers. In light of the above, we cannot confidently link AST4 to one specific eruption, but plot the concurring (and overlapping) ages of the afore-mentioned Krafla and Askja events in our chronology for reference (see Fig. 5).
Timing and magnitude of flood events
By precisely dating the three slackwater deposits of units 7, 5 and 2 in the Ástjörn basin, this study refines the Late Holocene outburst flood chronology of the Jökulsá á Fjöllum catchment. Previous efforts primarily relied on tephra horizons that solely provide minimum or maximum age estimates for floods because of their irregular stratigraphic distribution 63. Also, a dearth of reliable provenance indicators for some of these ash markers raises the possibility of miscorrelation in an environment where volcanoclastics are omnipresent and easily redistributed by katabatic winds 12, 17, 32. Here, we combine robust geochemical tephra fingerprints with 14C ages that bracket flood deposits to overcome these limitations and capitalize on the strengths of both methods. This approach identifies Late Holocene floods around 1) 3500 ± 500 cal. yr BP - based on the 95% confidence range of our Clam-derived age-depth model at the dated upper contact of unit 7, 2) 1500 ± 100 cal. yr BP – based on extrapolating the linear fit between plant macrofossil-derived 14C age LuS 15022 and the G-Svart (AST3) tephra to the basal contact of unit 5, and 3) 1350 ± 50 cal. yr BP - based on the calibrated 2σ range of peat macrofossil-derived 14C age LuS 15021 taken at the base of unit 2 (Supplementary Table 1 and Fig. 5). The use of available basal ages, which are less likely to be affected by reworked flood-eroded organic material 7, is justified by the absence of erosive contacts: our 63.5 µm resolution CT imagery reveals that unit transitions are sharp but conformable (Fig. 7D). Good agreement between these age constraints and estimates from the top of slackwater deposits further strengthens confidence in the presented flood history. Compared to previous reconstructions e.g. 15, 17, 63, our results show that the 1–2 ka BP flood identified by many workers actually comprises 2 closely-spaced events. This discovery helps resolve recent cosmogenic evidence of knickpoint retreat and terrace abandonment after 1.5 ka BP at the up-stream Dettifoss waterfall in greater detail 15 (Fig. 1). Our findings also confirm previous evidence of extensive flooding around 4 ka BP from exposure ages and flood deposits capped by Hekla 4 ash in sediment sections along the lower Jökulsá á Fjöllum 15, 17, 29, 38. Finally, as GPR and field evidence suggest that master core AST-P2-18 covers the entire sediment infill of the lake (Fig. 2D), the presented 4.5 cal. ka BP basal age provides a minimum age estimate for the last flood that was sufficiently powerful to remove all sediment from Ástjörn17.
Available flood simulations with the GeoClaw flow model by 64 allow us to constrain the magnitude of past floods in the catchment. Using a Manning’s roughness coefficient of 0.05 following the recommendations of 65 for the Jökulsá á Fjöllum watershed, 20, 21, 22 show that waxing floods first enter the lake from the North when flow exceeds 20 000 m3/s (Fig. 2A). We should note that this simulation prescribes a 37 m a.s.l peak stage (present-day lake level) while our SfM-generated DEM shows Ástjörn is separated from the adjacent sandur plain by a 44 m a.s.l levee (Fig. 2C). However, by raising questions about the stability of this unconsolidated landform, the stratigraphy of master core AST-P2-18 justifies the use of such a conservative discharge estimate. Notably, accumulation of overbank deposits (unit 8) and peat (unit 3) prior to flooding suggests a more effective exchange of water between river and lake. Relying on output from the same model setup and cross-sections from our SfM-generated DEM (Fig. 2), we calculate that overtopping of the 108 m a.s.l spill-over at the catchment’s southeastern perimeter requires a discharge in excess of 130 000 m3/s 21, 22. The presence of flow-aligned boulder lags, flood-carved bedrock channels and the 10 m high headwall at the lake’s southern edge reveal that such events are characterized by catastrophic high-energy flow regimes (Fig. 3) 17, 18. However, the discussed fine sand-dominated signature of analyzed flood deposits in AST-P2-18 are indicative of low-energy backflooding (Fig. 6) 41. Also, the CT imagery of Fig. 7 shows no obvious evidence of changes in flow direction and regime like erosive contacts. Following from the above, we argue that all three Late Holocene floods inundated Ástjörn from the adjacent sandur plain to the North - constraining discharge peaks to 20 000-130 000 m3/s.
To assess the relative magnitude of each flood, we analyze the Grain Size Distributions (GSDs) of slackwater units 7, 5 and 2 (Fig. 7). Because of the coupling between flow speed and sediment competence, paleohydrologists often rely on the abundance of coarse sediments to do so 9. However, this approach is not suitable for the Jökulsá á Fjöllum watershed as observational data reveal that there is no clear-cut relationship between flood discharge and grain size 30. Summer discharge peaks are dominated by silt-dominated glacigenic suspended load from the foreland of Vatnajökull, whereas coarser sand-sized material is only available in weathered upland areas and mostly mobilized during spring snow melt 30, 42. End-Member Modelling Analysis (EMMA; see “Methods”) permits us to un-mix the contribution of these different sediment sources and derive a robust predictor of flood magnitude after 66. As can be seen in Fig. 7B, our analysis identifies 3 significant End Members (EMs) that together explain 97% of the data variance. EM 2 dominates all slackwater flood deposits and has a modeled GSD that is near-identical to samples from these units (Figs. 7A and 7C). The mean of these distributions also overlaps with the observed range of silty sediments that dominate modern seasonal glacigenic floods 30. Based on this evidence, as well as the notion that past flooding mobilized the same sediment sources because of their glaciovolcanic origin17, we argue that EM 2 best captures flood intensity. To assess the relative magnitude of each event, we developed a so-called Flood Magnitude Index (FMI) by 1) normalizing EM 2 abundances per unit to account for the previously discussed changes in levee height (flood threshold) after 28, before 2) calculating definitive integrals (area under the curve) from these z-scores as slackwater sediment thickness also reflects flood discharge and duration25. This analysis suggests that the most recent 1.35 cal. ka BP flood was far greater than any other Late Holocene event (FMI = 109), with a twice smaller flood magnitude around 3.5 cal. ka BP (FMI = 45), and about one-tenth of this strength at 1.5 cal. ka BP (FMI = 10).
The upper 130 000 m3/s limit of our model-derived discharge range is at least three times lower than reported lower-end 400 000 m3/s peak estimates for Late Holocene Jökulsá á Fjöllum floods 19, 63. We attribute this mismatch to dating uncertainties: i.e. past workers fitted modeled water surfaces to undated wash limits e.g. 17, while our results provide chronological constraints on contemporaneous flooding (Fig. 5). 6768However, surface exposure dates of flood-carved bedrock surfaces reveal that knickpoints at the nearby Dettifoss waterfall retreated more than 2.5 km during these events (Fig. 1) 15. Taken together, this evidence underscores the highly erosive nature of comparatively modest floods. In doing so, our work implicitly supports simulations and observations that highlight that erosion rates in bedrock canyons can be controlled by other factors than discharge 4, 69, 70, 71. Jointed volcanic flows like those found in the Jökulsá á Fjöllum watershed allow shear and drag from flood waters to topple basalt columns with relative ease: calculations suggest that this happens during exceptional seasonal discharge maxima that exceed 500 m3/s 16, 72. Our work thus strengthens these and other studies that suggest that the magnitude of canyon-carving floods may have been over-estimated 71, 73. This could have implications for the use of geological evidence left by these events to assess their impact. Locally, a downward revision of the magnitude of millennial floods along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum reduces the probability of infrastructure damage or the loss of life. Globally, the lowering of flood-derived runoff volumes may challenge assumptions about the sensitivity of ocean circulation to freshwater fluxes. Finally, if comparatively modest floods can be highly erosive, formation of vast bedrock canyons requires less running water than thought.