The main finding of present study is that patients hospitalized for ischaemic stroke who are overweight and obese have better survival when compared with normal weight participators. In contrast, underweight patients show the worst mortality. It’s noteworthy, that the inverse associations of body weight and outcome measures remained after adjustment for confounder. Furthermore, the inverse association between abdominal obesity and mortality was constantly observed.
The results of this study are in line with studies showing that overweight group significantly decrease risk of mortality[20, 21]. When omitting different covariate from our models, risk of mortality among overweight participants was still lower. Similarly, Vemmos et al[21]. revealed that overweight significantly confer better survival rates compared to those with normal BMI. Contrastively, inconsistent with our finding, Dehlendorff et al.[22] have suggested overweight was not associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality. The possible reason is that both ischaemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke survivors were included in Dehlendorff’s, while our study only included the former. Another possible explanation for distinct result is that our participants were followed-up for a mean period of 54.86 months and endpoint is all-cause mortality, which differs from Dehlendorff’s assessed deaths caused by the index stroke at 1 week and 1 month.
Furthermore, our findings revealed that obesity confer decreased risk of mortality without statistical significance, which is consistent with other findings[23, 24]. A Chinese follow-up study[25], have found obesity (27.5-32.4 kg/m2) isn’t associate with increased risk, which is similar to the South Korea result of Ryu et al[24]. However, a TEMPiS study[6] revealed lowest mortality risk was observe in obese and very obese patients when compared with normal BMI counterparts. The discrepancy of the findings may be due to several reasons. Firstly, the TEMPiS study was a non-randomized intervention study comparing acute stroke treatment and without specialized stroke care in hospitals, differently ours was hospital-based longitudinal study without any intervention. Secondly, the TEMPiS study included individuals with hemorrhagic stroke, whereas our study included only first-ever ischaemic stroke subjects. So, the relationship between obesity and all-cause mortality still remain to be validated.
A remarkable finding in our study was that abdominal obesity also associated with better prognosis in stroke patients, which was in accordance with results from previous studies[26]. Though currently subjects were divided into normal WC and abdominal obesity according to all sex-specific WC criteria, which couldn’t distinguish mild, moderate and extreme abdominal obesity. However, Gomes et al.[26] used quartiles of WC to categorize different levels of abdominal obesity, found 4th quartile WC confer significant better survival, while 3rd and 2nd decreased risk of mortality without significance, when compared with 1st quartile WC.
The obesity paradox should not be directly interpreted as the fatter the better. Although the obesity paradox has been confirmed in various chronic diseases, such as cancer, hypertension and DM[27-29]. There are some proposed explanations for the paradox. Firstly, obese patients may tend to present earlier/more aggressive treatment, varying the natural history of their disease, which may have benefited from lead-time bias[23]. Meanwhile, obese counterparts were encouraged to change unhealthy lifestyle [2] and thereby acquired a better prognosis, but this requires additional research. Additionally, underweight may be the result of another underlying disease, unintentional weight loss, reduced mental and physical health or severe comorbidities that lead to worse prognosis[30, 31].
Several strengths and limitations should be acknowledged and discussed. Our strength is that we have considered association not only general obesity but also abdominal obesity with mortality in a long-term Chinese cohort. Furthermore, in our study, important confounding factors, such as stroke severity and anti-thrombotic medication adherence, have been comprehensively considered, but often absent in previous studies[2, 5]. Importantly, the dynamic change of weight and WC in the period of follow-up has been considered by recording temporary BMI and WC in every follow-up, which may constitute believable conclusion.
Our study does have some limitations. Firstly, weight, height and WC were indicated by self-report of patients other than tool measuring, which may be biased[32]. However, previous studies have suggested that self-reported weight, height and WC have satisfactorily accurate for the assessment of the obesity status and have near-perfect correlations and agreement with measured anthropometric values[33, 34]. Furthermore, BMI failed to distinguish between individuals with different types of fat distribution[35] and WC unable to distinguish persons with different height[36]. However, directly and accurately quantified methods are impractical and time-consuming[37]. Therefore, self-reported data should be generally acceptable.
Moreover, index bias may exist in our study, because though in our study all possible confounding were considered, essentially no uncontrolled confounding of both the obesity and mortality is impossible[38]. Even though unmeasured confounder inevitable, index bias only may be a partial explanation of the obesity paradox, which can’t deny obesity paradox does exists in stroke survivors[39]. Finally, our participants were recruited only from West China Hospital of Sichuan University, which might limit the generalized ability of these findings.