Population characteristics
Population characteristics of the total study population (n=1 765) including stratification by ethnicity and SES groups are presented in table 1. Mean (SD) age was 5.7 (0.5) y at the 5-years health check and 10.6 (0.4) y at the 10-years health check. Most children were from Dutch origin (79.3%), followed by Moroccan (5.4%), African Surinamese (4.4%), Turkish (2.6%) and “other” ethnicities (8.3%). The majority of children (68.3%) belonged to the high SES group and 31.7% belonged to the low/middle SES group. Highest BMI z-scores at age 5 were found in Turkish (0.60 SD 0.99) and Moroccan children (0.55 SD 1.67) and lowest BMI z-scores were found in Dutch (-0.04 SD 0.86) and high SES children (-0.06 SD 0.81).
Results in figure 2 presents the change over BMI categories between age 5 and 10 years. In most groups, the majority of children that were underweight at age 5 switched to normal weight at age 10 (e.g. 64% in African Surinamse and 56% in Moroccan children). However, in Dutch and high SES children, respectively 51% and 50% of the children switched to normal weight and a higher percetage of children remained underweight at age 10. In children that were normal weight at age 5, mainly African Surinamese (24%) and Turkish children (33%) switched to the overweight/obesity category at age 10 (e.g. 9% in Moroccan children and 16% in low/middle SES children). In none of the groups, children switched from underweight to overweight/obesity or from overweight/obesity to underweight.
Mean (SD) BMI z-scores per BMI category at age 5 and 10 years are presented in Additional file 1. In 10-year old overweight/obese children, mean (SD) BMI z-scores were lower in Dutch (1.44 SD 0.71) and high SES children (1.25 SD 0.61) than in other groups (e.g. Moroccan: 1.85 SD 0.63 and low/middle SES: 1.89 SD 0.66). Antropometric characteristics further specified by sex are shown in Additional file 2.
Weight development between age 5 and 10 years
Within the total population (n=1 765), there was a non-significant decrease in weight between age 5 and 10 years (B -0.018, 95% CI -0.052; 0.016). When this model was adjusted for confounders, the association was comparable (B -0.021, 95% CI -0.056; 0.014).
Weight development by ethnicity
Significant interactions were found between weight development and most ethnic groups; between Dutch and African Surinamese, Dutch and Turkish, Dutch and children of “other” ethnicities (p<0.001), between Moroccan and African Surinamese (p=0.022), Moroccan and Turkish (p=0.011) and between high and low/middle SES children (p<0.001).
Therefore analyses of weight development between age 5 and 10 years are shown per ethnic group seperately (table 2 and figure 3). In Dutch children, weight decreased (B -0.070, 95% CI -0.107; -0.033; Model 2). In Moroccan children there was no change in weight (B -0.001, 95% CI -0.182; 0.179). In African Surinamese, Turkish and children of “other” ethnicities weight increased. Weight developement differed depending on children’s BMI category at age 5. In children that were underweight at age 5 we observed an increase in weight across all ethnic groups (e.g. in Dutch children: B 0.186, 95% CI 0.092; 0.280; Model 2a). In children with a normal weight at age 5 we observed a decrease in weight in Dutch and Moroccan children, although in the latter group this was not statistically significant. In Turkish, African Surinamese and children of “other” ethnicities however we observed an increase in weight (e.g. B 0.455, 95% CI 0.175; 0.734 in Turkish children). In overweight/obese children we observed a decrease in weight except in the Turkish or “other” ethnicities groups.
Weight development by SES
Analyses of weight development between age 5 and 10 years per SES group are presented in table 2 and figure 3. In low/middle SES children, weight increased (B 0.174, 95% CI 0.103; 0.245; Model 2) while in high SES children weight decreased (B -0.107, 95% CI -0.145; -0.068). In children that were underweight at age 5 we observed an increase in weight in both SES groups. In children with a normal weight at age 5 we observed an increase in weight in low/middle SES children and a decrease in high SES children. In overweight/obese children we observed a decrease in weight in both SES groups.
Sensitivity analyses showed that weight development was significant different between boys (B 0.056, 95% CI 0.005; 0.106) and girls (B -0.097, -0.145; 95% CI -0.049) in the total population (p<0.001).
Dietary patterns and weight development by ethnicity
Associations between dietary patterns at age 5 and weight development between age 5 and 10 years per ethnic group are presented in table 3. In Dutch children, full-fat pattern scores at age 5 were negatively associated with weight development between age 5 and 10 years (B -0.069, 95% CI -0.114; -0.024; Model 2), while healthy pattern scores were positively associated with weight development (B 0.092, 95% CI 0.047; 0.137). Also in Moroccan children, healthy pattern scores were positively associated with weight development (B 0.259, 95% CI 0.002; 0.516).
Other results were not statistically significant but showed comparable associations: also in Turkish and children of “other” ethnicities, we observed that full-fat pattern scores were negatively associated, and healthy pattern scores positively associated with weight development. In most ethnic groups, snacking pattern scores were negatively associated and meat pattern scores were positively associated with weight development between age 5 and 10 years.
Dietary patterns and weight development by SES
The associations between dietary patterns at age 5 and weight development between age 5 and 10 years by SES group are presented in table 3. In low/middle SES children, healthy pattern scores at age 5 were positively associated with weight development (B 0.094, 95% CI 0.008; 0.179; Model 2). In high SES children, snacking (B -0.081, 95% CI -0.136; -0.025) and full-fat pattern scores (B -0.072, 95% CI -0.119; -0.026) were negatively associated with weight development while healthy pattern scores were positively associated with weight development (B 0.096, 95% CI 0.047; 0.143).
Sensitivity analyses dietary patterns and weight development by BMI category
Dietary patterns were associated with weight development, independently of energy intake: additional adjustment for total energy intake (B reflects the intake per kcal) did not change the results (e.g. in Dutch children, full-fat pattern scores were B -0.069, 95% CI -0.116; -0.026 without adjustment for total energy intake and B -0.071, 95% CI -0.116; -0.026 with adjustment for total energy intake). In the same model, energy intake was not associated with weight development in ethnic or SES groups (e.g. B -0.0003, 95% CI -0.0010; 0.0004 in Turkish children and B -0.0001, 95% CI -0.0005; 0.0002 in children of “other” ethnicities). Finally, when Model 2 was further stratified by BMI categories at age 5: underweight (Model 2a), normal weight (Model 2b) and overweight/obesity (Model 2c), no clear pattern was found among children in different BMI categories. In normal weight Dutch children, healthy pattern scores were associated with positive weight development (B 0.070, 95% CI 0.035; 0.106). And in normal weight high SES children, snacking pattern scores were negatively associated with weight development (B -0.051, 95% CI -0.096; -0.006) and healthy pattern scores were associated with positive weight development (B 0.070, 95% CI 0.031; 0.109) between age 5 and 10 years. Other results were mainly non-significant associations without a clear structure.