2.1 Study site and measurement locations
El Kalb River, with a length of 31 km, is located north of Beirut in Mount Lebanon Governorate. The river originates from the highlands of the Kesrouane area and is fed by interflow and runoff that occur shortly after events of rainfall and snowmelt. It runs from the Jeita Grotto to the Mediterranean Sea. The river catchment, having a total area of about 249 km2, consists of four sub catchments joining to form the main branch of the river (Doummar and Aoun 2018).
The watershed of El Kalb River and the boundaries of the sub catchments within the basin were delineated using ArcMap 10.4. Fig. 1 shows the watershed surface, the sub catchments areas, the stream gauge station (Sea Mouth), and the BOD sampling sites (S1 to S4).
2.2 Flow and BOD measurements
Flow data for the years 1993 to 2017 have been obtained from a stream gauge station, situated downstream of the river course (Fig. 1). The mean annual flow is 5.5 m3/s, with the highest mean monthly flow occurring in January (14.3 m3/s) and the lowest in August (0.3 m3/s) during flow recession periods.
Water quality was assessed through a sampling campaign during the wet and dry seasons of year 2019. The samples were tested for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) – considered indicative of wastewater contamination. Sampling points (S1 to S4) are shown on Fig. 1. BOD values varied from 32.5 mg/L to 58.3 mg/L in January 2019, and 42.1 mg/L to 69.7 mg/L in August 2019 (see Table S1 of the supporting information for water temperature and BOD values at each sampling location).
2.3 Land use, soil, and hydrogeology
The land use (Fig. 2a) and soil cover maps (Fig. 2b) of the study area were generated in ArcMap 10.4 using data extracts from the “OpenStreetMap” project (GEOFABRIK downloads 2018). Eight land use classes were identified (Fig. 2a) with be non-irrigated (rainfed) lands being more abundant than irrigated (agricultural) areas (Table S2 of the supporting information). Groundwater basins in the study catchment were also delineated in ArcMap with reference to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s map of groundwater basins in Lebanon (MoEW and UNDP 2014). The main aquifers, identified in Fig. 2c, are the High Central Mount Lebanon Cretaceous Basin, the Kesrouane Jurassic Basin, the Metn Shouf Cretaceous Sandstone Basin, and the Aptian-Albian Basin. Areas above the Jurassic unit are expected to have an infiltration rate of 50 to 60% of effective precipitation, while those above the High Central Mount Lebanon cretaceous unit are expected to have an infiltration rate of about 80% of effective precipitation. The remaining units are semi-aquifers which may allow minor infiltration and storage of groundwater (Schuler 2012; Schuler and Margane 2013; MoEW and UNDP 2014). Transmissivity values of the different geologic units were estimated between 0.01 to 1 m2/s for the Jurassic and the Cretaceous basins, and between 0.00001 to 0.0001 m2/s for the Cretaceous Sandstone basin. Moreover, the potential thickness of each aquifer was determined as follows: 200 to 600 m for the Cretaceous Basin, 10 to 300 m for the Cretaceous Sandstone Basin, 1000 to 1500 m for the Jurassic Basin, and 50 m for the unproductive Aptian-Albian Basin (MoEW and UNDP 2014; Badoux et al. 2014).
2.3.1 Population and water demand
Kesrouane and El Metn are the two districts that partly overlap with El Kalb River basin, with population densities of 544 p/km2 and 1991 p/km2, respectively (Lebanese Republic 2018) and 1% annual population growth rate (CDR 2018a). Fifteen domestic water demand sites were defined in Fig. 2d, considering 220 liters per capita per day (lcd) average unit demand rate (El Amine 2016).
To determine actual evapotranspiration and irrigation water requirements of different crops in WEAP, the crop coefficient, required for each land class type (Sieber and Purkey 2015; SEI 2016) was adopted from the “National Guidelines for Greenhouse Rainwater Harvesting Systems in the Agricultural Sector of Lebanon” (MoE and UNDP 2016). Particularly, monthly values of the crop factor for all irrigated crops incorporated in the model were developed (Table S3 of the supporting information), with the assistance of local farmers and following FAO guidelines (FAO 2020). An irrigation efficiency of 60% was assumed, as suggested by previous studies in El Kalb River basin (Schuler 2012).
2.3.2 Weather data
In general, the climate is seasonal and is classified as Mediterranean, with the highest precipitation between November and March, and relatively little to no precipitation during summer. The mean precipitation is about 450 mm per year, and the average temperature is 14.6 oC. Average monthly values of weather parameters (precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, cloudiness fraction – and calculated solar radiation) were obtained from the station of Qartaba (shown on Fig. 1) for the years 2012 to 2017 (World Weather Online 2020).
2.3.3 Water storage and wastewater treatment plants
To date, the only existing reservoir for surface water storage in the vicinity of El Kalb River basin is Chabrouh Dam. It is designed to deliver 60,000 m3/day to Kesrouane district and leaks up to 200 liters/second due to the karstic nature of the geological formations in the area (MoE et al. 2011; ECODIT LIBAN 2015). The monthly storage and discharge rates of the dam for the year 2010/2011 were used in this study (Schuler 2012). In addition, two wastewater treatment plants were planned to start operation in 2021 – at a capacity of 6000 m3/day (to serve 35,000 to 40,000 people) (UNDP 2013). Secondary treatment, with 85% BOD removal efficiency, was assumed for both plants (Salman et al. 2016).
2.3.4 Current wastewater management
The daily generation of domestic wastewater was assumed to be 165 lcd (Karam et al. 2013) and a corresponding average water supply rate of 220 lcd. A BOD load of 31 kg/capita/year was assumed – calculated based on domestic wastewater generation figures across Beirut and Mount Lebanon (58603 Mg of BOD5/year (MoE et al. 2014) for a population of 1,887,122 residents (CDR 2018a). It is assumed that the untreated wastewater is equally discharged into: (1) El Kalb River and other streams through direct discharge, and (2) underground hydrogeological units via leaking cesspits (Schuler 2012).
2.3.5 WEAP model development
Upon establishing the boundaries of the study area, the watershed components were defined (river tributaries and mainstem, subcatchments, domestic demand sites, water supply sources), as well as the planned wastewater treatment plants (Hrajel and Jeita) and the stream gauge station (Sea Mouth). Hydrological modelling was performed using the Soil Moisture Method in WEAP. This method incorporates the impacts of land use and soil types on water availability and allows the characterization of surface runoff, evapotranspiration (including irrigation), and subsurface flows (Sieber and Purkey 2015; SEI 2016). Flow to groundwater was simulated by connecting each catchment node to a groundwater node through an infiltration link.
The generated model, illustrated in Fig. 3, accounts for surface water-groundwater interaction by simulating groundwater discharge to the stream, but does not consider interflow and external inflows and outflows from and to surrounding catchments and aquifers.
The oxygen balance in the river was simulated using the water quality module in WEAP. It is based on the Streeter-Phelps model which accounts for consumption of organic matter (BOD exertion) and reaeration across the air-water interface. The model incorporates water temperature, depth and velocity, and the rates of reactions, decomposition and re-aeration (Kumar et al. 2017). The water quality model factors and constants were adopted from the literature (Sieber and Purkey 2015).
2.4 Model calibration and validation
Streamflow values at Sea Mouth, for years 2012 to 2015, were used for calibration of the hydrological model; flow data for the years 2016 and 2017 were used for validation. The parameters needed for the Soil Moisture Method (soil water capacity, root zone conductivity, runoff resistance factor and preferred flow direction), as well as the discharge rate of groundwater to the river, were adopted from the literature (Sieber and Purkey 2015; Quoc 2016; SEI 2016; Amin et al. 2018). The calibration of the water quality model was done manually, by adjusting the river geometric characteristics (stage and water width) and BOD generation rate to fit the observed values (Kumar et al. 2017; Kumar et al. 2019). The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE), the percent bias (PBIAS), and the coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the model performance (Quoc 2016; Leong and Lai 2017; Rauf and Ghumman 2018; Yaykiran et al. 2019).
2.Simulated scenarios
The scenarios simulated in this analysis span from year 2012 (baseline year) to year 2050, and consider three factors: population growth, wastewater treatment and discharge, and climate change. The business-as-usual condition was represented by a reference scenario (Scenario 1), with an annual population growth rate of 1%, while climatic changes and the implementation of the wastewater treatment plants were modeled as scenarios that represent future deviations from the current conditions. Climate change projections are based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. By midcentury, a temperature increase of 1.2°C and 1.7°C, with a decrease in precipitation of 4% and 11%, are expected under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively (MoE et al. 2016).
Scenario 1: Reference – The purpose of Scenario 1 is to quantify current water quantity parameters of the catchment, and the impact of prolonged wastewater discharge on water quality of the river, considering population growth only.
Scenario 2: 2-A (RCP 4.5) and 2-B (RCP 8.5) – Scenario 2 analyzes the effects of climate change on the catchment hydrological components and river water quality. The yearly changes in temperature and precipitation were assumed to be linear, at the following respective rates: +0.4°C per decade and -1.33% per decade under Scenario 2-A (RCP 4.5), and +0.56°C per decade and -3.66% per decade under Scenario 2-B (RCP 8.5). Under this scenario, the wastewater treatment plants remain non-operational.
Scenario 3 – Compared to Scenario 1, Scenario 3 analyzes the impact of the proposed wastewater treatment plants on the river water quality – considering that operation starts on year 2021. The discharge of untreated wastewater into the river is stopped. Instead, an outflow of wastewater from generation sites to the treatment plants and an inflow of treated wastewater to the river were introduced.
Scenario 4: 4-A (RCP 4.5) and 4-B (RCP 8.5) – Scenario 4 analyzes the combined effects of wastewater treatment and climate change on the river water quality. Consequently, the same climatic changes in Scenario 2 were applied and wastewater treatment was incorporated following the same approach of Scenario 3.