Model
We have developed a cost-consequence model to compare the direct health costs of ITP treatment with eltrombopag and rixutimab from the perspective of Spanish public hospitals. As in a similar study comparing romiplostim and rituximab [27], only direct hospital health costs of patients treated with eltrombopag and rituximab were considered. Grade 1 (petechial) bleedings, which are treated by the patients themselves or at the primary care services, were not considered.
To allow the comparison with a similar study that evaluated the cost per response of romiplostim and rituximab [27], a time horizon of 26 weeks (half a year) was set. As shown in Figure 1, it was split into two periods. The first one comprised 8 weeks during which all patients were treated, and the response was evaluated. This was followed by a period of 18 weeks in which a) only patients responding to eltrombopag continued to be treated and b) patients on rituximab were treated according to previously described bases [26]. This structure is coherent with the previously mentioned study carried out in Spain [27], so it may support decision-making.
As the time horizon is less than a year, we did not consider applying discounting to costs or effects.
In this way, over the 26 weeks, the model accumulates treatment costs (drugs plus administration), follow-up costs and the costs produced by bleedings to calculate the final cost per responding patient to both treatment alternatives.
Study population
Considering that eltrombopag is indicated for patients of more than one year of age with chronic ITP who are refractory to other treatments [25] and that although rituximab is not officially approved for this disease, it is indicated for adult patients in the illnesses in which it is approved [28], we have limited our analysis to adults with chronic-refractory ITP.
To determine the effectiveness of these treatments, we carried out a literature review of chronic ITP treatment published in English and Spanish between 2000 and 2017. As a result, we have identified a paper focused on a group of Spanish patients treated with eltrombopag [29]. As no similar paper has been found for rituximab (on Spanish patients with chronic-refractory ITP), we have used the data from the Arnold DM et al systematic review [32].
To estimate rituximab dosage, we used the Dubois & Dubois formula to determine the body surface of patients [30]. Height and weight were determined according to microdata from the Spanish results of the European Health Survey 2014 (basal data shown in Table 1) [31].
Estimate of response
No study or phase 3 clinical trial related to rituximab response was found in Spain; therefore, the more consistent data for this treatment derive from the indicated systematic review [32]. Additionally, we used a retrospective French model to evaluate the need for re-treatment and its effectiveness [26].
Table 2 shows the response rates used in the model, their sources and the criteria employed to evaluate the response. The re-treatment rates and their responses are shown in Table 3.
As Table 2 shows, there are differences in the response criteria. While the eltrombopag study used the full response rate (defined as platelet count ³100 x 109/l) and the response rate (platelet count ³30 and <100), the rituximab study used a different response rate (defined as platelet count ³50 x 109/l). Despite this, a superior efficacy of eltrombopag against rituximab can be established, since its complete response rate is 77.3%, while the rituximab response rate is 62.5%.
Bleeding estimate
As petechial bleeding does not involve hospital attention—it is cared for at primary care services—the model only considers 2-, 3- and 4-grade bleeding (WHO bleeding scale [33], Additional file 1).
There is a relationship between a low platelet count and an increased risk of bleeding. In this way, patients who do not respond to treatment will have a lower count and an increased risk of bleeding than responding patients. To simulate these bleeding risks, we have used the RAISE trial data [19], assuming that non-responding patients behave in the same way as the placebo arm in relation to the risk of bleeding while responding patients present a similar risk decrease to that in the treatment arm of the trial.
This assumption seems to be valid considering the effectiveness of eltrombopag and the duration of this trial, which is equivalent to that of the model (six months). The bleeding rates used in the model are shown in Table 4. Grade 4 bleedings are potentially life threatening, with a mortality rate of 40%; 80% of patients who survive after such bleeding need rehabilitation [34].
Resources and costs
To make a cost estimation, we used an average of the official lists of prices of the different Spanish regions (Additional file 2. Prices are actualized to 2018 euro (€2018).
As both alternatives are hospital formulary drugs, prices to wholesalers have been used, thus avoiding the extra costs involved by distribution channels and chemist stores.
Table 5 shows the price to wholesale (PTW) of the different drugs as they appear in BotPlusWeb Portalfarma (online drugs database of the General Council of Official Pharmaceutical Associations, https://botplusweb.portalfarma.com, accessed 1 June 2018).
To calculate the cost of the drugs, we considered the cost per mg and applied it to doses as described in the trials. Each rituximab treatment comprises 4 cycles of 375 mg for each square metre of body surface [32], implying a daily dose of 25 mg for 17.13% of the patients, a dose of 50 mg for 40.89% and a dose of 75 mg for 41.98% [19]. In the case of rituximab, an extra administration cost must be added; as the drug is administered in the hospital, we have assumed it is equivalent to day-hospital costs.
Table 6 shows the costs and their use in the model. Eltrombopag response is monitored weekly during the first 8 weeks and then once a month after week 8. For rituximab, monitoring is carried out weekly for the first 4 weeks and once a month after that. We assumed that a grade 2 bleeding cost is 0.6 times the cost of a specialist consultation plus 0.3 times the cost of an urgency consultation. For grade 3 bleedings, we assumed a diagnosis-related group (DRG) 174 (gastrointestinal bleeding) cost; for grade 4 bleedings, we assumed a cost of 0.2 times DRG 810 (medical intracranial haemorrhage) plus 0.8 times the cost of DRG 833 (surgical intracranial haemorrhage) and the cost of rehabilitation when applying. This rehabilitation process after grade 4 bleeding, when needed, was assumed to last 6 months and to include a monthly visit to the physiotherapy consultant, five physiotherapy and speech therapy sessions every week and three weekly occupational therapy sessions [35].
Sensitivity analysis
To analyse the effect of the different variables on the model results, we carried out 15 sensitivity analyses, described in Table 7.