Background Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality rates in a highly inhomogeneous metropolis, is a matter of public policy interest. In this context, there is no previous study that correlates both spatio-temporal and age-specific mortality rates in Mexico City.
Methods Spatio-temporal kriging modelling was used over six age-specific mortality rates (from the years 2000 to 2016 in Mexico City), to gain both spatial (borough and neighbourhood) and temporal (year and trimester) data level description. Resulting data were modelled using time-evolution mixed effect models to unblurred mortality age-specific patterns. Posterior tests were carried out to compare mortality averages between geospatial locations.
Results Mortality correlation extends in all study groups for as long as 12 years and as far as 13.27 km. The highest mortality rate takes place in the Cuauhtémoc borough, as it is the commercial, touristic and cultural core downtown Mexico City. On the contrary, Tlalpan borough is the one with the lowest mortality rates in all the study groups. Interestingly, post-productive mortality is the first age-specific cause of death, followed by infant, productive, pre-school and scholar groups.
Conclusion The combinations of spatio-temporal Kriging estimation and time-evolution mixed effect models, allowed us to unveil relevant time and location trends that may be useful for public policy planning in Mexico City.