Vaccines is undoubtedly a best way to reduce the transmission of as well as the impacts of COVID-19. In beginning of this pandemic, many mathematical modelling articles predicted that vaccination rate could reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19. By using available of national data, studies from Brazil and England showed that vaccination rate was reduced the mortality rate. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the differences of COVID-19 mortality rate among fully vaccinated population, partially vaccinated population, and no vaccinated population, using Malaysia epidemiology data.
Epidemiology and vaccination data including death number, population data, vaccination number and number of populations from 16 different states in Malaysia, 24 th February 2021 until 2 nd October 2021 were be retrieved from open data introduced by Ministry of Health (MOH) with the collaboration with Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation (MOSTI) and COVID-19 Immunisation Task Force (CITF). A nonseasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (p, d, q) model was used to investigate the differences of trend of mortality rate among fully vaccinated population, partially vaccinated population, and no vaccinated population by state respectively.
Over 32 epidemiological weeks, the mean of COVID-19 mortality rate among fully vaccinated population were lower than the mean of COVID-19 mortality rate among partially vaccinated population and no vaccinated population in each state respectively. ARIMA model demonstrated that COVID-19 mortality rate among fully vaccinated population was statistically significant lower compared to the mortality rate among no vaccinated population, in all state.
By using national data, COVID-19 mortality rate was significant lower among fully vaccinated population where this could be served as the evidence to convince the people to accept vaccine immediately in order to prevent any severe implication such as death occur if infected and achieve the COVID-19 herd immunity, preparing us to return to normal life in the near future.