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Article
Chansik An
National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0484-6658
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
We developed a tool for early triage of a COVID-19 patient based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5°C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Our model was better in predicting prognosis than protocols that are not based on data. The AUC of our model utilizing all the selected predictors was 0.907 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.927 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. Even with age, sex, and symptoms alone used as predictors, AUCs were ≥ 0.88. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75.
Keywords
COVID-19, triage, predicted prognosis, Korea
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The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- SupplementarymaterialsCOVID.docx
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Article
Chansik An
National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0484-6658
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 24 Nov, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
We developed a tool for early triage of a COVID-19 patient based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5°C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Our model was better in predicting prognosis than protocols that are not based on data. The AUC of our model utilizing all the selected predictors was 0.907 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.927 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. Even with age, sex, and symptoms alone used as predictors, AUCs were ≥ 0.88. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
There is NO Competing Interest.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
- SupplementarymaterialsCOVID.docx
Supplementary materials
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