Clinical characteristics at the time of IPF diagnosis
The median age at the time of IPF diagnosis was 70 years (IQR: 65–75 years) (Table 1). Approximately 80% of the patients were men and had a history of smoking. Most of the patients had normal to mild restrictive respiratory impairment. The median FVC was 74.4% (IQR: 65.2–86.4%) and the median decreased lung diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was 64.1% (IQR: 53.0–81.7%). The GAP index was calculated for 97 patients, of which 58.8% were stage I, 27.8% were stage II, and 13.4% were stage III.
Standardised 3D-CT LV and its correlation with lung physiology
Representative segmental lung images at IPF diagnosis and during AE and those of age- and sex-matched control patients are presented in Figure 1. The standardisation of 3D-CT LV to FVC-predictive values is shown in Table 2. In patients with IPF, the median standardised 3D-CT total LV was 108.2% (IQR: 90.5-123.5), the standardised upper lobe LV was 52.2% (IQR: 47.9-61.4), and the standardised lower lobe LV was 39.6% (IQR: 32.4-49.0). The median standardised 3D-CT LV of the total lung and each lobe, except for the right middle lobe, was significantly lower in at diagnosis patients with IPF than in the control group. The difference in standardised 3D-CT LV between patients with IPF and the control group was more significant in the lower lobes than in the upper lobes.
To validate the values of the standardised 3D-CT LV, correlation analyses were performed. The standardised 3D-CT LV (%) was found to be significantly correlated with FVC (%) (r=0.66, p<0.001), total lung capacity (TLC) (%) (r=0.68, p<0.001), and diffuse capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) (%) (r=0.27, p=0.009) (Figure 2 and Supplementary Figure 2).
Prognostic value of standardised 3D-CT LV in patients with IPF
Next, we explored the prognostic values of standardised 3D-CT LV at IPF diagnosis. A total of 69 patients died during the observation period. The median survival time was 5.47 years (IQR: 3.07-10.50 years). Patients with a standardised 3D-CT total LV >108% had a significantly longer survival than those with a standardised 3D-CT total LV <108% (median survival time: 8.52 years vs. 4.16 years, p<0.001) (Figure 3).
The standardised 3D-CT LV (HR 0.976, p < 0.001), FVC (%) (HR 0.971, p< 0.001), FEV1/FVC (%) (HR 1.004, p=0.025), DLCO (%) (HR 0.969, p=0.003), PaO2 (HR 0.970, p<0.001), KL-6 (HR 1.000, p<0.001), and SP-D (HR 1.005, p=0.001) were identified as prognostic factors for patients with IPF. When FVC (%) was excluded, the standardised 3D-CT LV at the time of IPF diagnosis was independently associated with mortality (HR 0.978, p =0.002) (Supplementary Table 1). The standardised 3D-CT LVs of the upper (HR 0.965, p = 0.001) and lower (HR 0.970, p = 0.005) lobes were also identified as prognostic factors (Supplementary Table 2).
Modified GAP system using standardised 3D-CT LV
The GAP system was well validated in determining the average risk of mortality of patients with IPF 11, and performed well in prognostic separation in our cohort. The median survival times of patients based on the GAP system were 7.47 years (IQR: 5.39-8.99 years) for patients classified as stage I, 4.35 years (IQR: 2.82-8.52 years) for patients classified as stage II, and 1.94 years (IQR: 0.21-2.64 years) for patients classified as stage III (Supplementary Figure 3A). When standardized 3D-CT LV data were used in place of FVC data to determine the GAP stages, the median survival times were 7.47 years (IQR: 4.42-11.20 years) for patients classified as stage I, 4.27 years (IQR: 2.64-7.93 years) for patients classified as stage II, and 0.91 years for patients classified as stage III (IQR: 0.51-1.94 years) (Supplementary Figure 3B). The modified GAP index showed similar discrimination performance as the original GAP index (C-statistics: 0.682 vs.0.658, respectively).
Standardised 3D-CT LV in patients with AE of IPF
During the observation period, 61 AEs occurred in 47 patients with IPF with a median time from IPF diagnosis of 5.90 months (IQR: 1.03–23.2 years). This study also enrolled another independent cohort patients with AE-IPF to validate values of the standardized 3D-CT LV (validation cohort). The patient characteristics at the time of AE are presented in Supplementary Table 3. Representative segmental lung images obtained during AE are shown in Figure 1C. The standardised 3D-CT LV for total lung and each lobe were significantly decreased compared to those obtained at the time of diagnosis (Table 3).
Prognostic value of standardised 3D-CT LV in patients with AE of IPF
At the time of AE, PFTs are often difficult to perform due to the severe respiratory failure. However, CT can be taken with a light burden in such patients. Thus, we hypothesised that evaluating the standardised 3D-CT LV, instead of PFTs, would be beneficial in assessing pulmonary physiology in patients with AE of IPF. To justify the values, the cut-off values for standardised 3D-CT LV were determined by the median in each cohort. Patients with lower standardised 3D-CT LV had a significantly shorter survival than those with higher standardised 3D-CT (Hamamatsu cohort; median survival time: 1.73 months vs. 12.67 months, p 0.003,Seirei cohort; median survival time: 1.70 months vs. 16.60 months, p=0.001, combined cohort; median survival time: 16.17 months vs. 1.53 months, p 0.001, Figure 4).
The results of univariate and multivariate cox-proportional regression analyses in each cohort were shown in Supplementary Table 4 and Supplementary Table 5. The results showed that only standardised 3D-CT LV was consistently significant. Further, the volume loss in the upper lobes, but not in the lower lobes, at the time of AE was identified as a prognostic factor (Supplementary Table 2).
Predictive model for the prognosis of patients with AE of IPF using standardised 3D-CT LV and CRP
Because standardised 3D-CT LV and CRP were proven to be significantly independent prognostic factors in patients with AE-IPF (combined cohort), we attempted to develop a predictive model of prognosis for patients with AE-IPF using the standardized 3D-CT LV and CRP. Patients with AE of IPF were classified into three groups based on the median values of standardised 3D-CT LV and CRP in each cohort; 1) patients with above the median standardised 3D-CT LV and below the median CRP, 2) patients with below the median standardised 3D-CT LV and above the median CRP, and 3) the remaining patients. The prognoses of these three groups were significantly different (p<0.001, p=0.014, and p<0.001 respectively, Figures 5). The C-statistics were 0.687, 0.651 and 0.678, respectively.