There is an asymmetrical distribution of landslide events along the Kashmir Himalayas. From the landslide database prepared for the Kashmir Himalayas during 1990-2020, it was found that the entire region is prone to landslides that are largely distributed along the major transport routes passing through Greater Himalayas and PirPanjal ranges including; NH-44 (Jammu Srinagar national highway), Mughal Road, NH-1D (Srinagar-Sonmarg-Gumri Road, NH-1B (Sinthan Top-Kishtwar-Batote Road), Bandipora-Gurez Road, Baramulla-Uri Road (NH-1A) and Kupwara-Machhil Road (Fig. 2a). The study area lies within administrative boundaries of the Union Territory Jammu and Kashmir comprising 20 districts. The geographical distribution of total landslide events and of major catastrophic fatal events is shown in Figs. 2(a) and (b). The Landslide Database of Kashmir Himalayas (LDKH) identifies about 739 landslide events reported in 506 days at the regional scale (Table 4). The most affected local areas were the Banihal-Ramban stretch, Baltal route (Ganderbal), Sonmarg-Gumri route (Ganderbal), Uri (Baramulla), Dawar-Gurez (Bandipora), and Kishtwar route outlined in Table 4. Out of the 739 landslide events, 180 fatal events were identified from 1990-2020 that were discussed in detail in the fatal landslide Catalogue.
Preparing the inventory for fatal landslides was a challenge because most of the fatal landslides were associated with avalanches and documented in landslide disaster reports, therefore making it difficult to isolate major avalanche events from landslides (Prakash 2011). Hence, the inventory of fatal landslide events included major avalanche events. Results show that many disastrous events have stroked the Himalayas in the past 30 years which include the events like; 18Jan 1995, a catastrophic event that occurred near the Jawahar -Tunnel caused 200 casualties; 18-Feb-2005, a massive avalanche near Waltangu Nad Kulgam caused 175 casualties; 28-Jan-2006, 6 men were buried under a heavy landslide in Uri, Baramulla; 1-may-2008, 20 people were killed by a large landslide in Poonch; 6-September-2014, entire Saddle village came under a massive landslide in Udhampur buried 40 people alive and 4-July-2018, Amaranth Yatra suspended by a massive landslide buried 10 pilgrims, etc. LDKH recognises about 127 fatal landslides and 54 fatal landslide/avalanche episodes having a large impact on the region in terms of the damage caused from 1990-2020.
The total deaths caused by landslides and landslides associated with avalanches counted 1000 (including Catastrophic events) and the total number of reported injuries were 267(Table 4). Fig. 3 represents the hotspot analysis of historical landslide events, fatal landslides and fatal landslide/avalanche events (L/A) for the study period 1990-2020 in the Kashmir Himalayas. The results identified three historical landslide hotspots on the main transport routes as Srinagar-Jammu highway (Banihal to Udhampur), Srinagar-Sonamarg-Gumri road and Bandipora-Gurez road (Fig. 3). The concentration of the event occurrences was found low in the valley floor and dense along the transport routes. Considering the LDKH, the Landslide fatality hotspot lies on the Jammu-Srinagar Highway from Banihal to Udhampur and the landslide/ Avalanche fatality hotspot lies in the Gurez Valley (Bandipora).
The district-wise spatial distribution of fatal landslide events and the frequency of deaths and injuries caused by them has been shown in Fig. 4. Fig. 4(a) shows that the districts with the most frequently occurring fatal landslide events from 1990-2020 were Ramban with 24 fatal events and Baramulla with 15 fatal events, followed by district Kishtwar (14), Doda (13), Reasi (12), Ganderbal (9) and the districts with an average of 5 to 9 events were Poonch, Kupwara and Anantnag. The districts with zero occurrences of fatal Landslide events were Jammu, Kathua and Shopian. From the Analyses of the database the highest frequency of deaths caused by landslides from 1990-2020 were reported in District Ramban (44), Kishtwar (38) followed by District Doda (32), Reasi (27), Poonch (29), Baramulla (24), Ganderbal (19), Rajouri (18) and districts with Minimum fatalities were Udhampur, Samba, Pulwama and Srinagar (Fig. 4c).The districts with the highest number of injuries were identified as Ramban with 57 reported injuries and Reasi with 33 reported injuries followed by Kishtwar (21), Ganderbal (17), Baramulla (16) and Doda (14) (Fig. 4d).
The major catastrophic events were separated that could have triggered the landslides, where the death toll crossed 30 to 200 deaths /per event, were stroked in the districts Kulgam and Bandipora. Figs. 4(b), (e) and (f) show the frequency of landslide/avalanche (L/A) events (landslide associated with snow avalanches), fatalities and injuries caused by them from 1990-2020. The results show that the highest frequency of fatal L/A events was seen in districts Kupwara with 14 fatal L/A events, Bandipora (11) and Kulgam (6) followed by Aanatnaq (5), Ganderbal (4) and the district with the minimum occurrence of fatal events has been found in Ramban, Reasi and Doda (Fig. 4b). It has been noticed that the districts with the highest fatalities caused by L/A events were Bandipora with 67 deaths, Kupwara (53) and Budgam (40), followed by Kulgam (31), Baramulla (25) and Reasi (17) shown in Figs. 4(e) and (f). The South –West of the Kashmir Himalayas was found to be less prone to avalanches and the landslides associated with them. Fig. 4(f) represents the spatial distribution of the injuries caused by L/A which was found to be highest in districts Anantnag, Budgam, Bandipora and Baramulla.
Table 4 Spatio-temporal attributes of the landslides in Kashmir Himalayas (LDKH), 1990-2020
Year
|
Total No. of reported Days
|
Total No. of reported landslide events
|
Total No. of deaths
|
Total No. of Injuries
|
Area affected
|
1991
|
1
|
1
|
−
|
−
|
Nashri (Ramban)
|
1992
|
5
|
13
|
−
|
−
|
Sutrun, Gainwan, Sumbal, Rishigund, Dehi Nallah, Peerah
|
1993
|
3
|
9
|
−
|
−
|
Badwaan, Gulgulosa, Hayan, Mamar, Pharoo, Rawatpur, Z-khushi, Badwan
|
1994
|
2
|
2
|
−
|
−
|
Trahagam, Bali Nala and Narsoo slide
|
1995
|
17
|
29
|
218
|
−
|
Jawahar tunel, Chandigam, Gund , Haknar, Karalpora, Lalpur, Phoroo, Siphon,Tuarkapur, Chaandigi nallah, Baltal, Pani nallah, Kishtwar, Gangangir, Hawas, Ganiwan, Z-khushi, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
1996
|
12
|
24
|
1
|
−
|
Ramwari, Shadgund, Matrigam, Ganiwan, Ganangir, Sarebal, Chandigi nallah, Gutlipur, Wangat, Kankanaz, Haripora, Hawas, Baltal, Badwan, Vehama, Tragbal, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
1997
|
10
|
15
|
−
|
−
|
Gangangir, Chandigi nallah, Kovpora, Hawas, Batgund, Kralapur, Ninao, Tagbal, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
1998
|
20
|
28
|
−
|
−
|
Charpathar, Dand Behan, Shekhpur, Wanjan, Waripur, Chandigi Nallah, Baltal, Haripora, Gumri, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
1999
|
4
|
6
|
−
|
−
|
Baltal, Ramban
|
2000
|
6
|
9
|
1
|
−
|
Srinagar-Sonmarg-Gumri road, Baltal, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2001
|
2
|
5
|
−
|
−
|
Baltal, Ramban
|
2002
|
9
|
18
|
4
|
3
|
Boniyar, Gagangir, Gumri road, Baltal, Uri, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2003
|
28
|
34
|
5
|
−
|
Uri-Santra -Mike, Red-Bridge -Dedrain road, Mouhurra-Bazzroad, Batote Kishtwar road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2004
|
3
|
5
|
−
|
−
|
Srinagar-Sonmarg-Gumriroad, Baltal, Chandigi Nallah
|
2005
|
30
|
50
|
175
|
−
|
Waltengu Nad, Gangagir, Srinagar-Gumriroad, Kishtwar-Sinthan road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2006
|
18
|
25
|
7
|
−
|
Uri, Panthal, Sheshnag-Panjtarnitrack, Srinagar-Sonmarg-Gumri road, MahaGunas and Posh Pathri areas ,Dawar, Koragbal, Wampur Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2007
|
17
|
21
|
22
|
26
|
Doda, Ramban, Panthihal, Khabbak Village, Ganderbal, Charpathar, Koragbal, Nayalgoan,Kishtwar, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2008
|
7
|
8
|
81
|
16
|
Uri, Qazigund, Srinagar, Chakoti, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2009
|
9
|
13
|
15
|
5
|
Chokoti-Uri, Atholi, Vaishno Devi, Srinagar, Gurez, Baltal, Kupwara, Amarnath tack, Kishtwar, Railpahri, Keran, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2010
|
33
|
51
|
91
|
53
|
Chadiyan Baramulla, Lahama Uri, Pahalgam Route, Uri, Gharkote, Gulmarg, Ganderbal, Kangan, Reasi, Veshno Dev, Baltal and Pahalgam, wanjan, Hafkalan, Rangdur, Doda, Kanmaoh Pampore, Lassi Banna, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2011
|
19
|
32
|
21
|
27
|
Doda, Banzur, Bunakut, Hajinar, Kuljan Gali, Nalchain, Panar, Riddi, Tangtori, Kishtwar, Uri, Bramullah-khudpora, Sarna, Salamabad, Phimram Shangus, Doda, Kishtwar, Baltal, Amarnath Nath route, Gurez, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2012
|
14
|
21
|
67
|
16
|
Kulgam, Doda, Kupwara, Kishtwar, Khoni Nallah, AnokhiFall, Bandipora, Ganderbal, Gurez, Aitmal, Drangyari, GundManchar, Guzarbal, Khori, Vewan, Mughal Road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2013
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
_
|
Mughal Road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2014
|
13
|
16
|
76
|
3
|
Anantnag, Digdole, LadiAngan, Banali Boniyar, Bandi and Jal Sheeri areas of Uri, Kulgam, Batote- Kishtwar road, Kupwara-Machhil, Mughal road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2015
|
32
|
36
|
17
|
6
|
Awantipora, Pulwama,Baltal and Pahalgam route, Batote-Kishtwar road, Budgam, Uri, Baramulla, Keran sector, Mughal road, Peer ki gali, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2016
|
12
|
19
|
24
|
10
|
Wangat, Handwara, Mughal Road, Waniarm Kangan, Fatehchak, Lamchak, Daadchakh-Halmatpora kupwara, Kandi belt Baramullah, Dara Harwan, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2017
|
31
|
34
|
43
|
15
|
Kupwara, Veshno Devi, Batote-Doda-Kishtwar, Mughal road, Kishtwar, Machhil sector, Anantnag, Baltal and Phalgam route, Banihal-Ramban stretch, Bandipora
|
2018
|
34
|
45
|
68
|
52
|
Tragbal, Baltal-Pahalgam route, Anantnag, Ganderbal, Railpathri and Brarimarg, Kupwara -Tanghdar road, Sadhna Pass-Kupwara, Happatkol-appharwat, Machhal-Kupwar, Mughal road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2019
|
41
|
56
|
45
|
11
|
Kokernaq, Jawahar tunel, Anokhifall, Peer ki gali, Tanghdar road, Dawar, Tragbal, Sonawari, Bhaleesa-doda, Mughal road, Baltal and pahalgam route, Machhil sector-Kupwara, Tanghdar road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
2020
|
68
|
108
|
15
|
24
|
Panthal, Ramsu, Karna, Sallar-Pahamlgam route, Srinagar-Sonmargroad, Mughal road, Dawar, Tanghdar road, Uri, Kulgam , Z-khushi road, Dawar, Tanghdar road, Uri , Kulgam, Z-khushi road, Banihal-Ramban stretch
|
4.1 Landslide and their impacts from 1990-2020
The Decadal frequency of the landslide events with the reported days and related fatalities and injuries from 1990-2020 is presented in Fig. 5. It was found in the decadal analysis that the decade 1990-2000 has total of 136 landslide events reported in 80 Days causing 20 deaths with no reported injuries. In the decade 2001-2010, almost 230 landslide events were reported in 156 days causing 206 deaths and 103 injuries. During 2010-2020 the frequency of landslide events was 373 reported events in 270 days inducing 380 deaths and 164 injuries in the region. Fig. 5, indicates that decade, 2011-2020 was very impactful with a higher number of fatalities and injuries.The annual distribution and trend of landslides and reported days of land sliding are presented in Fig. 6 (a). From the analysis of collected data, it was seen that landslides were reported every year from 1990-2020. The trend of landslide events and their reported days was found to be increasing from 1990-2020. The results show that the frequency of landslides has increased along with their reported days during the period. In the initial years of the study period, the year 1995 shows the highest no. of landslide events whereas in the mid-years of the study period, 2010, 2005 and 2003 show the highest number of events and the years 2001, 2004,2008 have minimum no. of reported landslide events. In the final years of the study period 2020, 2019 and 2015 have the highest no. of landslide incidents and the years 2013 and 2014 reported a minimum no. of landslides in the region. Fig. 6 (b) shows the temporal variation in the frequency of fatal landslides and the related fatalities and injuries from 1990-2020. From the Fatal landslide database, it was found that the years 1995, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2018 reported the highest no. of fatalities caused by Landslides and L/A events and the years 2007, 2010 and 2020 have the highest no. of injuries in the study area.
The highest number of fatal events recorded in the years 2010(26), 2018(20) and 2019 (20) and the years from 1995-2006 reported lesser number of fatal events. Fig. 7 shows the seasonal variation in the frequency of landslide events during the period 1990-2020 and from the database, it was perceived that an increasing trend of landslides was seen in all seasons where the winter season has the highest reported landslide incidents in the Himalayas followed by Monsoon and Pre-monsoon. The post-monsoon season has comparatively a lower number of reported landslide incidents from 1990-2020. From the LDKH the total landslide events reported in the winter season were 245, monsoon season (242), pre-monsoon (218) and post-monsoon (34).
4.2 Historical Landslides along Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44) from Udhampur-Banihal
Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44), old numbering NH-1A is one of the principal highways of India for its Geo-strategic location connecting the Valley with the rest of the country. The landslide database prepared for the Jammu-Srinagar NH has been incorporated in LDKH. Out of the total739 landslides documented in the database, 303 were outlined for NH-44 (Udhampur-Banihal) in 260 reported days from 1990-2020. The database collected reveals that on average, dozens of places were hit on a single reported day, and the landslide incidents were not numbered quantitatively concerning the places hit that may result in a biased database.
An approximate figure of historical landslides from the past 30 years was obtained by multiplying the reported days of land sliding with the number of places hit on a particular date. The results show that the total estimated landslides were 1482 causing considerable damage to the National Highway over the period of time. Fig. 8 (a) represents the geographical location of NH-44 from Udhampur-Banihal and Fig. 8(b) represents the spatial distribution of landslides. The landslide-prone areas of NH-44 were identified as Jawahar tunnel, Shaitani Nallah, Banihal, Moum-Passi, Makarkote, Panthal, Anokhi Fall, Khoni Nallah, Digdol, Maroog, Serri, Deswal, Karol, Chanderkote, Nashri, Patnitop, and Khari Belt. For assessing the variations in the frequency of landslides in different areas of NH-44 over the study period, the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH-44) from Udhampur to Banihal was divided into eight sections based on the occurrence of Landslides. It was found that Section Maroog-Ramsu has the highest frequency of landslides followed by Ramban-Maroog, Nowgam-Jawahar Tunnel, Ramsu-Banihal and the sections with the lowest occurrence of landslides were Udhampur-Chenani, Banihal-Nowgam, and Chenani-Nashri. The hotspot analysis of the National Highway NH-44 from Udhampur to Banihal using the Fishnet and Polygon methods has been shown in Figs. 8 (c) and (d). From the hotspot analyses three hotspots were found, one with 99% confidence and the other two with 95% and 90% confidence level for the historical landslides lying between Nashri-Ramsu.
The annual variation in the frequency of the landslides from the database of NH-44 from 1990-2020 shows that in the initial years of the study period, the year 1998 has reported the highest no. of landslides whereas the mid-years, 2002, 2005, and 2007 have recorded the highest number of landslide incidents and in the final years of study, 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2020 have the maximum number of landslides incidents for 30 years (Fig. 10 a). From the decadal analysis of 303 reported landslides, the decade 2011-2020 (146) has the highest frequency of landslides followed by the decade 2001-2010 (71) and 1990-2000 (43). From the analysis of the seasonal variation in the frequency of the landslides from 1990-2020, the maximum number of landslides were reported in the winter season (139) and monsoon (83) followed by pre-monsoon (69) and the lowest was found in post-monsoon (12).
Socio-economic impact
To examine the socio-economic impact of landslides along NH-44 in the Kashmir Himalayas, the intensity of the damage has been measured from 1990-2020 through a scale prepared using the data gathered from different sources given in Table 3.The socio-economic impact caused by landslides in the region is discussed in detail in Table 5 and from which it is evident that the Jammu-Srinagar highway has proven disastrous to the people of the region. It has been noticed that from 2007 onwards the intensity of damage has been very high from 1990-2006 the damage intensity ranges from low to high (Fig. 9 b) and also, the number of causalities has increased from 2007 onwards.
From the database (Table 5) it is manifested that the highway remains closed for most of the winter due to landslides which hike the prices of the necessary commodities in the basin leading to short-term inflation. The passengers, supply trucks, oil tankers, and tourists get stranded on the highway for dozens of days in the winter season with no availability of food and water. The stranded passengers sometimes travel kilometers on foot to reach their homes. During monsoon season lacs of pilgrims who visit the Amarnath temple in the Kashmir valley frequently get stuck on the highway. The majority of the time Yatra is suspended for many days due to landslide incidents. The landslide fatality database shows that many pilgrims have lost their lives in these past years. Besides government of India started the road widening project of NH-44 in the year 2011 which has exposed new landslide-prone areas making the situation more depressing (Pandey et al. 2014). Due to the increased frequency of landslides, the cost for the maintenance of the highway has also increased.
Table 5 Socio-Economic impact due to landslide hazard along Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (1990-2020)
Year
|
Associated Damage of landslide episodes (Socio-economic)
|
1991
|
Section of Jammu Srinagar highway badly damaged
|
1992
|
Section of Jammu Srinagar highway badly damaged
|
1994
|
Section of Jammu Srinagar highway badly damaged
|
1995
|
Closure of highway, scarcity of essential commodities, prices of several daily consumer goods including eggs, butter, chicken and vegetables gone up,1000's of passengers stranded and road was damaged
|
1996
|
Highway was closed and section of highway was badly damaged
|
1997
|
Highway was closed and damage of road surface
|
1998
|
4000 Passengers stranded on highway from both sides and also there was the damage of road surface
|
1999
|
Highway was closed and road surface was damaged
|
2000
|
Highway was blocked and 298 vehicles were stranded
|
2001
|
Highway closed and damage of road surface
|
2002
|
Highway closed for several days and 5000 passengers were stranded on highway along with the 850 vehicles between Batote to Banihal
|
2003
|
Highway closed for several days, road surface was damaged and vehicles stranded
|
2004
|
NA
|
2005
|
Highway was closed and the road surface was damaged
|
2006
|
One causality, highway was closed for several days ,300meter highway stretch washed by heavy landslides and 1000's of trucks leaded essential commodities and 400 passenger vehicles were stranded
|
2007
|
Eight causalities, highway was closed and the road surface was damaged
|
2008
|
Three killed and sixteen injured, highway was closed, damage of road surface and 400-500 trucks stranded
|
2009
|
Highway was closed and one injured
|
2010
|
Four killed and one injured, passengers along with 2000 small and heavy vehicles stranded on the highway and 44 structures damaged in Dharam-Tharad area
|
2011
|
One causality, 1,200 vehicles stranded, highway was closed for traffic, 400 passengers evacuated from Jawahar tunnel and road was damaged
|
2012
|
Nine causalities, highway closed for several days leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir, 2000 vehicles stranded and road was damaged
|
2013
|
Highway was closed and 500 vehicles stranded
|
2014
|
Two killed, highway closed and traffic suspended
|
2015
|
Four causality and two injured, highway closed for several days, Amarnath yatra suspended, massive landslide buried some vehicles and highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir
|
2016
|
Two houses and a school damage in Mundjhal area by massive landslide, highway was closed for several days and the road was damaged
|
2017
|
A massive landslide blocked the arterial road and also damaged a bridge in Udhampur district, highway closed for 6th day, 1000 passengers carried journey on foot, highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir and shortage of supplies hikes prices
|
2018
|
Seven causalities and four injured, vehicles damaged, 20,000 amaranth pilgrims staying back and highway closed
|
2019
|
Fourteen causalities, highway closure 21times in two months, over 6,500 vehicles were stranded at various places between Jammu to Banihal and other side of the Jawahar tunnel towards Kashmir, fuel crises in Kashmir,300 tankers lined up, highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir, shortage of supplies hikes prices and highway badly damaged
|
2020
|
Eight causalities and eleven injured, damaged 28 houses in Dhalwas village near Chanderkot, 500-meter stretch damaged at Ramban, over 1500 trucks remain stranded by a massive landslide, 7000 Vehicles Stranded in winter slide, highway closure leads to scarcity of essentials in Kashmir, shortage of supplies hikes prices and highway badly damaged
|