Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1175817/v1

Abstract

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of stroke, the second leading cause of death, have been conducted in populations of predominantly European ancestry.1,2 We undertook cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of stroke and its subtypes in 110,182 stroke patients (33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals of five ancestries from population- and clinic-based studies, nearly doubling the number of cases in previous stroke GWAS. We identified association signals at 89 independent loci, of which 61 were novel. Effect sizes were overall highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis using a novel machine-learning approach,3 transcriptome and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (e.g. SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (e.g. at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a novel three-pronged approach,4 we provided genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWAS with vascular risk factor GWAS (iPGS) showed strong prediction of ischemic stroke risk in European and, for the first time, East-Asian populations.5,6 The iPGS performed better than stroke PGS alone and better than previous best iPGS, in Europeans and East-Asians. Transferability of European-specific iPGS to East-Asians was limited. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical trial participants with cardiometabolic disease and performed considerably better than previous scores, both in Europeans and East-Asians. Altogether our results provide critical insight to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets for intervention, and provide genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries for targeted prevention.

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