Increased global heavy fire emission by Madden-Julian Oscillation

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1208224/v1

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Increased global heavy fire emission by Madden-Julian Oscillation

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1208224/v1

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posted 28 Jan, 2022

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Understanding heavy fire activities tied up to climate and its future change is of emerging scientific concern and essential for reducing huge economic costs and life losses from substantial heavy fire hazards under greenhouse warming. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale tropical convective system and moves from Asia to the US, generating extreme weather in the midlatitudes. Here, we show that when MJO convective anomalies occur in the western Pacific, the fire emissions in the midlatitudes are two times more likely than when MJO convection is in the Indian ocean. The changes in MJO related to increased fire emissions in the tropics and midlatitudes. Precise MJO predictions may contribute to enhanced subseasonal forecast of the fire activities, aggravating vast social and economic losses (124 words)

Observed data

For the monthly mean SST, we used the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstructed SST version 5³¹. MJO and its teleconnection are also constructed from two reanalysis datasets: OLR was derived from NOAA satellite data and zonal winds were from the NCEP–DOE reanalysis³². Fire weather index (FWI) and geopotential height was obtained from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis v5³³. Daily outputs, including zonal winds and FWI, were used. The analysis is conducted for all seasons and covers the same period of fire emission data (2003–2020)

Fire emission data is from the fourth generation of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4, https://www.globalfiredata.org) burned area and emission data set, which provides global monthly, daily, and 3hourly emission data at 0.25° spatial resolution from 2003 to 2020³⁴.

MJO-related analysis

MJO-related diagnostics. The MJO life cycle is classified by eight MJO phases based on longitudinal locations of the MJO-scale convection. To obtain MJO-phase-composited fields, we calculated daily anomalies and applied a 20-100-days bandpass filter. We also calculated two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) using the filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), zonal winds at 850hPa, and 200hPa averaged over 10°S-10°N. Using EOFs and filtered OLR and 250hPa and 850hPa zonal winds, we calculated the real-time multivariable MJO (RMM) indices through the projection. The MJO phase 2 and 3 correspond to strong convection over the eastern Indian Ocean, and MJO phase 5 and 6 is characterized by deep convection over the western Pacific. We only select days related to MJO when MJO magnitude is greater than 1. Both concurrent and lag composites were obtained. The Student’s t-tests were used to identify where the MJO-phase-composited anomaly is significantly different from zero.

Data Availability

Data related to this paper can be downloaded from the following:

ERSSTv5, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v5

NOAA/NCEP reanalysis, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/reanalysis/reanalysis.shtml

ECMWF reanalysis, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets

GPCC, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html

All the data generated in this analysis will be deposited at the server clipas.soest.hawaii.edu and are available upon requests.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42088101), the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF; NRF-2018R1A5A1024958 and NRF-2020R1C1C1006569) and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology initial research foundation (1441012001019). This is Publication No. 11200 of SOEST, Publication No. 1490 of the IPRC, and Publication No. 337 of Earth System Modeling Center.

Author Contributions

Y.-M. Yang, J.-Y. Moon and J.-Y. Lee conceived the idea. Y.-M. Yang, J.-A. Cho and D.-Y. Lee performed analyses. S.-I. An, Y.-M. Yang, Tim Li, B. Wang, and J. H. Park wrote the manuscript. All authors provided critical feedback and helped shape the research, analysis, and manuscript.

Competing Interests statement

The authors declare no competing interests

Supplementary Materials

Supplementary Figure S1-S6

There is NO Competing Interest.

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Increased global heavy fire emission by Madden-Julian Oscillation

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