In univariate logistic regression model, the factors of maternal age of less than 18 years and more than 35 years, multiparity, multiple births, gestational diabetes, positive urine culture, decreased amniotic fluid volume, an interval of 7 days or more between the last health care session and delivery, maternal weight gain less than the recommended and the score of pregnancy complications in the third trimester of pregnancy had a statistically significant relationship with preterm delivery.
In the multiple regression model, the variables of maternal age of more than 35 years, multiple births, gestational diabetes, decreased amniotic fluid volume, an interval of 7 days or more between the last health care session and delivery, maternal weight gain less than the recommended and the score of pregnancy complications in the third trimester of pregnancy were effective in predicting preterm delivery. These results are in line with, and confirm, the results of some studies, for example, in (17–22), age over 35 years was an independent risk factor for preterm delivery. In our study, ages over 35 years with an odds ratio of 1.5 was an independent risk factor for preterm delivery (P=0.018). In this age group, the increased preterm delivery is due to maternal and fetal causes such as premature and preterm rupture of fetal membranes and maternal diseases (23). In (19, 24–26), multiple births were independent risk factors for preterm delivery. The chance of preterm delivery in multiple births is 45.1 times higher than that in single births (P<0.001). The excessive uterine dilatation leads to early activation of placental-fetal endocrine cascade. Premature increased dilatation and activity of endocrine may trigger events altering the course of uterine activities, including premature cervical preparation (27). Gestational diabetes in (28–30) was an independent risk factor for preterm delivery. In our study, gestational diabetes with an odds ratio of 1.7 was an independent risk factor for preterm delivery (P=0.002). In mothers with gestational diabetes, medically indicated preterm deliveries due to obstetric or medical complications are more likely to occur (27). In (31, 32), the decreased volume of amniotic fluid was significant as an independent risk factor for preterm delivery. In pregnancies with reduced amniotic fluid volume, the chance of preterm delivery is 6.2 times higher than that in pregnancies with normal volume of amniotic fluid (P=0.006). In pregnancies with reduced amniotic fluid volume, fetal growth restrictions and unreliable fetal heart rate (FHR) patterns are more likely, and as a result, preterm delivery is also more likely to occur (27). In this study, the interval between the last health care session and delivery was significant, and in people whose last health care session to delivery was 7 days or more, the chance of preterm delivery is 2.6 times greater than the people whose last health care session to delivery was less than 7 days (P<0.001). Appropriate and adequate prenatal care and identification of risk factors can reduce the chance of preterm delivery (33). In this study, pregnancy complications were significant in the third trimester of pregnancy, and the chance of preterm delivery in people with the complications of the third trimester of pregnancy is 2.4 times higher than those who do not experience complications of the third trimester of pregnancy (P=0.004). Premature and preterm rupture of fetal membranes is one of the major causes of preterm delivery. 30-35% of preterm deliveries occur after preterm rupture of the membranes. Abdominal and flank pains before preterm delivery can be due to contractions at the onset of labor or inflammation due to a urinary tract infection (UTI) (27). In several studies (34–38), maternal weight gain less than the recommended was a significant independent risk factor for preterm delivery. The chance of preterm delivery in mothers with weight gains lower than the recommended amounts is 1.4 times higher than those who gained the recommended weight percentage during pregnancy (P=0.036). Weight gain less than recommended during pregnancy indicates abnormal physiology in pregnancy, maternal stress, depression and lack of lower or higher nutrient, which can play a significant role in the occurrence of preterm labor (39).
In the implemented regression model, accuracy is 65.4%, sensitivity is 66.0%, specificity is 65.8%, positive predictive value is 19.3%, negative predictive value is 92.9% and the area under the ROC curve is 0.681, which indicates relatively good performance of the model. In a study by Mercer et al. (1996), sensitivity was 24.2%, specificity was 92.1%, positive predictive value was 30.8% and negative predictive value was 89.4% for multiparous women, and sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 95.4%, positive predictive value was 33.3% and negative predictive value was 90.2% for nulliparous women (40). In the above study, the history of preterm birth was evaluated and applied in the model. Preterm delivery history variable is a very important factor in predicting the preterm delivery, which is not evaluated for the mothers who had given birth with pregnancy information registered in the SIB system of the Department of Health, and therefore, it has not been included in our research model. Although the specificity of the model designed by Mercer was higher than that of our study, it has lower sensitivity and positive predictive value, and the sensitivity and the negative predictive value of our model is higher than both models of Mercer.
Celik et al. (2008) employed cervical length and obstetric history variables, and the area under the curve of severe, early, medium and mild preterm delivery models was 0.919, 0.836, 0.819 and 0.650, with a sensitivity of 80.6%, 58.5%, 53.0% and 28.6%, respectively (41). In this study, cervical length and preterm delivery history were evaluated and used in their model. The variable of cervical length is also a very important factor in predicting preterm delivery, which is not recorded in all pregnancy care files of mothers, and thus, it has not been included in the present study. The area below the curve in our study model was higher than that of the mild preterm delivery model of the above study, and the sensitivity of our study was higher than that of the mild, moderate and early preterm delivery models of that study as well. In Schaaf et al. (2012), the area under the curve is 0.63, the positive predictive value is 19.4%, the negative predictive value is 96.3%, the sensitivity is 4.2%, and the specificity is 99.3% for the cut-off point of 0.1, and the positive predictive value is 25.8%, and the negative predictive value was 96.2% for the cut-off point of 0.4 (42). The model of this study has used the variable of preterm delivery history as well. Our study model is of a lower area under curve and higher sensitivity compared to those of the Schaaf’s study model for the cut-off point of 0.1, and the predictive value of our model and that of Schaaf’s study model for the cut-off point of 0.1 are almost the same. In Lee et al. (2011), in model one for the gestational age of less than 37 weeks, the sensitivity was 68.8%, the specificity was 85.0%, the positive predictive value was 50.8%, and the negative predictive value was 92.4%, and in model two for gestational age of less than 34 weeks, the sensitivity was 57.1%, the specificity was 86.2%, the positive predictive value was 19.0% and the negative predictive value was 97.3%, and in model three with gestational age of less than 32 weeks, the sensitivity was 64.3%, the specificity was 95.1%, the positive predictive value was 26.5% and the negative predictive value was 99.0% (15). The sensitivity of the present study model is greater than the sensitivity of the second and third models, the positive predictive value of our research model is higher than the positive predictive value of the second model, and the negative predictive value of the present research model is higher than that of the first model. Dabi et al (2017) studied the two groups. The first group of pregnant women had a single birth, and the second group of pregnant women delivered twins. The area under the ROC curve in the first group was 0.88, and in the second group, it was 0.71, the sensitivity in the first group was 80%, and for the second group, it was 69%, the specificity in the first group was 82% and in the second group, it was 73%, the positive predictive value in the first group was 39.8% and in the second group, it was 48.5%, the negative predictive value in the first group was 94.8%, and in the second group, it was 91.3%([43). This study also measured the cervical length and used it in the model. In the present study, it was not possible to measure cervical length in all mothers. The negative predictive value of the present research model was higher than that of the second group.
Strengths and limitations of the present study
The present study is privileged by employment of the most related routine variables of preterm delivery; hence no additional cost burdened the model development. This study used logistic regression model to predict preterm delivery, the advantages of which are its simplicity of implementation and interpretation of results. At the same time, one of the disadvantages of logistic regression is its inability to examine nonlinear or more complex relationships with the logit. Therefore, it is recommended to study preterm delivery predictors using data mining and machine learning methods that can overcome this disadvantage. Some of the limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and insufficient certainty of the accuracy and precision of the data found in the records. Also, some important variables such as preterm delivery history, cervical length and income are not included in the pregnancy care data, so complete recording of these variables and preterm delivery data is recommended for quantitative and qualitative enhancement in future studies.