Table 1 reports the summary statistics for treatment admissions in expanding states and non-expanding states for the study period 2009-2017. Expanding and non-expanding states are broadly comparable across patient-level characteristics, with an average age of 32 years and about 67% male. Treatment admissions in non-expansion states include a higher percentage of whites and college-educated. This is probably related to lower levels of public insurance coverage in those states. Only 15% of admissions are covered through Medicaid in the non-expansion states compared to twice the amount (30%) in the expansion states. 70% of admissions in the non-expansion states are uninsured and 7% had private insurance. Comparatively, the uninsured admission rate in Medicaid expansion states is significantly lower at 48%, and private insurance rates are at 11%. The average admissions per 100,000 population are higher for all categories of substance use for the expansion states.
We first run a difference-in-difference model specified in equation (1) to test for differences in treatment admissions per 100, 000 population in the years immediately preceding expansion (2009-2013), for patients insured through Medicaid. The comparison groups were based on states’ expansion and non-expansion status post-2013. Treated = 1 for all states that expanded Medicaid post-2013 and zero otherwise. The coefficient estimates reported in Table 2 are statistically indistinguishable from zero, indicating no significant difference in Medicaid patient admissions between the expansion and non-expansion states pre-Medicaid expansion.
Table 1: Summary statistics for expansion and non-expansion states: 2009-2017
|
|
2009-2017
|
Variable
|
Definition
|
Medicaid Expansion
|
No Medicaid Expansion
|
Age
|
Age of admission
|
32.09
|
31.82
|
Male
|
Client is Male
|
0.67
|
0.66
|
White
|
Client is White
|
0.64
|
0.69
|
Black
|
Client is Black
|
0.18
|
0.13
|
Hispanic
|
Client is Hispanic
|
0.08
|
0.10
|
No High School
|
Client has less than 12 years of education
|
0.05
|
0.04
|
High School
|
Client is a high school graduate
|
0.18
|
0.19
|
College
|
Client is a college graduate
|
0.17
|
0.23
|
Private Insurance
|
Client has private health insurance
|
0.11
|
0.07
|
Medicaid
|
Client is insured through Medicaid
|
0.30
|
0.15
|
Medicare
|
Client is insured through Medicare
|
0.11
|
0.06
|
Uninsured
|
Client is uninsured
|
0.48
|
0.70
|
Total Admissions
|
Total Admissions for all substance use per 100,000
|
664.96
|
544.31
|
Opioid
|
Opioid Admissions per 100,000
|
55.04
|
51.91
|
Opioid + Heroin
|
Opioid + Heroin Admissions per 100,000
|
213.26
|
88.81
|
N
|
|
149
|
124
|
Table 2: Pre-Medicaid Expansion Comparisons (2009-2013)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Opioid Use Admissions
|
Opioid + Heroin Use Admissions
|
All Substane Use Admissions
|
Treated
|
0.0630
|
0.00920
|
0.0159
|
|
(0.170)
|
(0.243)
|
(0.211)
|
State Fixed Effects
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Year Fixed Effexts
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
204
|
204
|
204
|
Notes: Dependent variable represents a count of the number of substance-use disorder admissions per 100,000 population aggregated for each state and year. Model is estimated using fixed-effects Poisson regression on the Medicaid insurance admissions sample for expansion and non-expansion states. Standard errors in parentheses are robust and clustered at the state level, and significance is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10. All regressions include full set of controls.
Table 3 presents the estimates of the Poisson model specified in Equation (1) for the Medicaid insurance sample using the full sample from 2009-2017. The difference-in-difference estimate indicates that states that enacted Medicaid expansion saw significant increases in treatment admissions relative to the reference group i.e. the non-expanding states. Total substance use admissions in expanding states were higher by 33.2%, while Opioid and Opioid + Heroin related admissions increased by 20.6% and 26.2% respectively in this period.
Patient characteristics and state level controls show some interesting results. Admissions were significantly higher in the newly Medicaid eligible 30-34 age group across all three substance use categories and start to fall by age 50. Surprisingly, admissions for opioid use and opioid + heroin use show an uptick in the elderly population above 55 year. More treatment admissions are male than female. Whites and married are significantly more likely to be admitted for opioid use. This might relate to the accessibility of prescription drugs. Admissions are higher among the non-college educated and significantly lower for college graduates.
Table 3: Medicaid Treatment Admissions (2009-2017)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Opioid Use Admissions
|
Opioid + Heroin Use Admissions
|
All Substane Use Admissions
|
DD
|
0.206*
|
0.262**
|
0.332**
|
|
(0.119)
|
(0.111)
|
(0.137)
|
Age
|
-0.482
|
-0.229
|
0.408
|
|
(0.373)
|
(0.420)
|
(0.368)
|
Age_square
|
0.00746
|
0.00390
|
-0.00554
|
|
(0.00572)
|
(0.00593)
|
(0.00512)
|
Age 18_20
|
0.000210
|
0.0000671
|
0.000237*
|
|
(0.000172)
|
(0.000123)
|
(0.000140)
|
Age 21_24
|
-0.000118
|
0.000111
|
-0.000139
|
|
(0.000268)
|
(0.000145)
|
(0.000189)
|
Age 25_29
|
0.000215
|
0.000181
|
0.000307*
|
|
(0.000235)
|
(0.000118)
|
(0.000171)
|
Age 30_34
|
0.000482***
|
0.000144*
|
0.000306***
|
|
(0.000112)
|
(0.0000829)
|
(0.000106)
|
Age 35_39
|
0.000572
|
0.000324
|
0.000223
|
|
(0.000437)
|
(0.000283)
|
(0.000321)
|
Age 40_44
|
0.0000625
|
0.000460*
|
0.000240
|
|
(0.000306)
|
(0.000242)
|
(0.000265)
|
Age 45_49
|
-0.000403
|
-0.000662**
|
-0.000391
|
|
(0.000343)
|
(0.000276)
|
(0.000287)
|
Age 50_54
|
-0.000848***
|
-0.000730***
|
-0.000611**
|
|
(0.000325)
|
(0.000258)
|
(0.000263)
|
Age 55plus
|
0.00244***
|
0.00266***
|
0.00124
|
|
(0.000744)
|
(0.000902)
|
(0.000770)
|
Unemployed
|
0.0466
|
0.0654
|
0.104*
|
|
(0.0559)
|
(0.0497)
|
(0.0573)
|
Male
|
2.075**
|
2.048*
|
2.617***
|
|
(0.841)
|
(1.136)
|
(0.888)
|
White
|
3.402***
|
1.498
|
1.332
|
|
(1.282)
|
(1.774)
|
(1.693)
|
Black
|
-0.181
|
2.098
|
1.728
|
|
(1.496)
|
(2.121)
|
(1.962)
|
Hispanic
|
1.251
|
2.158
|
-0.0244
|
|
(2.379)
|
(2.887)
|
(2.947)
|
Married
|
3.235***
|
0.580
|
-0.434
|
|
(0.990)
|
(1.490)
|
(1.403)
|
No High School
|
2.993*
|
1.250
|
3.215**
|
|
(1.686)
|
(1.721)
|
(1.267)
|
High School
|
0.847
|
4.513**
|
0.668
|
|
(1.151)
|
(1.765)
|
(1.335)
|
College
|
-1.995**
|
-4.790***
|
-0.475
|
|
(0.874)
|
(1.655)
|
(1.274)
|
State Fixed Effects
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Year Fixed Effexts
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
257
|
257
|
257
|
Notes: Dependent variable represents a count of the number of substance-use disorder admissions per 100,000 population aggregated for each state and year. Model is estimated using fixed-effects Poisson regression on the Medicaid insurance admissions sample for expansion and non-expansion states. Standard errors in parentheses are robust and clustered at the state level, and significance is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10
Next, we turn to Medicaid expansion effects on all uninsured admissions, in the expansion states relative to the non-expansion states. As suspected, the difference-in-difference estimates reported in Table 4 are negative and significant for all three categories of substance use, implying that the number of uninsured admissions was lower in states with Medicaid expansion compared to states without expansion.
Table 4: Uninsured Treatment Admissions (2009-2017)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Opioid Use Admissions
|
Opioid + Heroin Use Admissions
|
All Substance Use Admissions
|
DD
|
--0.415***
|
-0.163***
|
-0.293**
|
|
(0.136)
|
(0.0609)
|
(0.138)
|
State Fixed Effects
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Year Fixed Effects
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
257
|
257
|
257
|
Notes: Dependent variable represents a count of the number of substance-use disorder admissions per 100,000 population aggregated for each state and year. Model is estimated using fixed effects Poisson regression on the uninsured admission sample for expansion and non-expansion states. Standard errors in parentheses are robust and clustered at the state level, and significance is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10. All regressions include full set of controls.
The percentage of uninsured among patients seeking admission for all substance use, opioid use, opioid + heroin use was 29%, 41.5%, and 16% lower respectively, in the expansion states.
Finally, to study the effects of Medicaid expansion on private insurance rates, we run a pre- and post-analysis on the expansion states (treatment group) setting treated=1 starting in the year of expansion. A negative effect would suggest evidence of “crowding-out” of private insurance as public insurance rates rise due to the expansion of Medicaid.
Table 5: Crowding out of Private Insurance Rate in Medicaid Expansion States (2009-2017)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
All Substance Use Admissions
|
Opioid Use Admissions
|
Opioid + Heroin Use Admissions
|
Post
|
-0.181***
|
-0.110
|
0.116
|
|
(0.0675)
|
(0.0720)
|
(0.112)
|
State Fixed Effects
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Year Fixed Effexts
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
N
|
149
|
149
|
149
|
Notes: Dependent variable represents a count of the number of substance-use disorder admissions per 100,000 population aggregated for each state and year. Model is estimated using fixed-effects Poisson regression on the privately insured admissions sample for expansion states pre- and post-Medicaid expansion. Standard errors in parentheses are robust and clustered at the state level, and significance is denoted by *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10. All regressions include full set of controls.
Our results reported in Table 5 show some evidence of decline in private insurance coverage in the expansion states among total substance use admissions, however, the difference is insignificant for opioid use and opioid + heroin admissions.