In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation of bio-temperature indicators (including DT0, DT5, DT10, DT20, SGS, EGS, and LGS), and further analyzed the response of vegetation growth to changes in bio-temperature indicators across the GLRCA for the period 1982–2014.
Over the entire study period, GLRCA experienced a significant warming trend, and such climate warming has induced a series of ecological and environmental effects (Liu et al. 2019; Yu et al. 2021). Since the 1970s, nearly half the great lakes in the GLRCA have shrunk, and considerable glaciers are rapidly retreating due to climate warming (Yu et al. 2021). In the present study, a significant decreasing trend in annual NDVI was observed in most of the study area (63.8%), especially around the Aral Sea, while a significant increasing trend was mainly in the east. This variation in vegetation dynamics was also identified in previous studies (Jiang et al. 2017; Zhang et al. 2018). Meanwhile, numerous studies have suggested that temperature played a major role in the vegetation dynamics across the GLRCA (Jiang et al. 2017; Luo et al. 2020).
During 1982–2014, over 56.4% of the study area experienced a positive correlation between annual temperature and annual NDVI, particularly at high altitudes in the southeast. Generally, at high altitudes, temperature is the dominant climatic factor affecting vegetation growth (Wang et al. 2014; Wang et al. 2021). Thus, the increase in vegetation greenness in the mountainous of the GLRCA could be attributed to climate warming (Jiang et al. 2017; Zhou et al. 2015). However, rapid warming could significantly increase evapotranspiration and lead to soil moisture deficit, which in turn limit vegetation growth (Anderegg et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2021). This might explain the negative correlation of annual NDVI with annual temperature in the west of the study area.
Climate change manifests itself not only as changes in mean conditions, but also as changes in some key bio-temperature thresholds (Zhao and Wu 2016). Key bio-temperature are closely related to the growth of vegetation, and slight changes could produce substantial effects on the structure and function of ecosystems (Yang et al. 2019; Yin et al. 2019). Therefore, we further analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in DT0, DT5, DT10, and DT20. Overall, four indicators showed a pronounced increasing trend, which is the consequence of increased temperature in the GLRCA (Feng et al. 2018). Spatially, this increase has significant variability, which should be strongly associated with the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in surface characteristics, such as topography and urbanization (Toelle and Churiulin 2021). Moreover, a clearly decreasing trend in DT20 was observed in the northeast, and Figure 1 (a) reveals that the annual mean temperature in the region also insignificantly increased during 1982–2014. Previous studies found that increased precipitation and vegetation greening could induce a cooling effect on regional temperatures (Barbero et al. 2018; Yuan et al. 2017). Therefore, the increase in precipitation and NDVI over the northeastern GLRCA should contribute to the decrease in DT20 (Jiang et al. 2017).
For the period 1982–2014, the correlations of annual NDVI with DT0, DT5, DT10, and DT20 showed obviously spatially heterogeneous. It implied that the response of vegetation dynamics to temperature drivers was highly variable due to different vegetation characteristics and environmental conditions (Li et al. 2021b; Luo et al. 2020). A slight increase in temperature would exert a positive impact on regional vegetation growth by reducing frost days and extending the growing season (Wu et al. 2021; Zhao et al. 2021). At the same time, a significant positive correlation between annual NDVI and temperature indicators was observed at high elevations in the southeast because cold temperature is a serious constraint to vegetation growth in the region (Jiang et al. 2017). However, most of the regions in GLRCA showed that the negative correlation between DT0, DT5, DT10, DT20 with annual NDVI increased with increasing bio-temperature thresholds, which may be due to increased temperature intensifying precipitation limitation for dryland vegetation growth (Wu et al. 2019; Zhang et al. 2016). Especially, more than 88.3% of the study area showed a negative correlation between annual NDVI and DT20. In general, DT20 occurred mainly in summer, and high temperatures could further increase ecosystem drought. Recently, the negative effects of high temperatures on ecosystems have been widely reported in many regions, especially in arid and semi-arid areas (Baumbach et al. 2017; Li et al. 2021b). Under high temperature stress, vegetation photosynthesis is weakened or even stalled, while respiration is enhanced, thus leading to a decrease in productivity (Salvucci and Crafts-Brandner 2004; von Buttlar et al. 2018).
Vegetation phenology, including SGS, EGS, and LGS, is a sensitive signal indicating the response of vegetation dynamics to climate change (Richardson et al. 2012; Wu et al. 2021). Plenty of remote sensing data and ground observation data demonstrated that spring phenology has advanced and fall phenology has delayed owing to global warming (Dong et al. 2012; Sun et al. 2020; Wu et al. 2021). In this study, LGS presented a significant positive trend at a rate 0.500 days/yr for the regional scale, and delayed EGS (0.460 days/year) contributed greater relative to advanced SGS (-0.040 days/yr). This result is consistent with other studies around the globe (Dong et al. 2012; Sun et al. 2020). Spatially, a pronounced delay in SGS was observed in the north. In fact, spring cooling has been noted in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere over the last decades (Sun et al. 2019; Wang et al. 2011). Such a spring cooling could possibly result in delayed SGS in the GLRCA. In addition, the spatial pattern of LGS was similar to that of DT5 because the growing season in this study was defined based on 5°C and DT5 in a year occurred mostly within the growing season.
Environmental changes are inconsistent with the vegetation response, which may lead to different trends in growing season derived from surface air temperature and growing season based on actual vegetation phenology (Sun et al. 2020; Wu et al. 2021). Therefore, we further analyzed the correlations between annual NDVI with SGS, EGS, and LGS. Generally, prolonged LGS controlled by advanced SGS and delayed EGS can increase the time of material accumulation, thereby enhancing vegetation productivity (Piao et al. 2007; Richardson et al. 2010). Meanwhile, a pronounced positive correlation between annual NDVI and LGS was observed at high elevations in the southeast. Furthermore, our study found that annual NDVI was negatively correlated with LGS in some regions of the GLRCA, especially in the north. In dryland ecosystems, precipitation is the major driver of vegetation greening, and increased evapotranspiration controlled by climate warming would lead to drought and exacerbate precipitation limitation (Ma et al. 2015). In addition, the increase in temperature might accelerate the growth of vegetation and thus lead to a shortening of the vegetation growth cycle, particularly for herbaceous plants (Sherry et al. 2007; Wu et al. 2021). Hence, these could explain the negative effect of extended LGS on vegetation growth across the GLRCA.