Patient characteristics
The average age of patients with metastatic breast cancer and those with no metastasis was 50.9 ± 11.0 years and 48.8 ± 10.8 years, respectively. Among 123 patients with metastatic breast cancer, 15 (12.20%) patients were pathologically diagnosed with HR+/HER2+, 50 (40.65%) were diagnosed with HR+/HER2-, 30 (24.39%) were diagnosed with HR-/HER2+, and 28 (22.76%) were diagnosed with HR-/HER2-. Of the 241 enrolled patients with non-metastatic breast cancer, 47 (19.50%) patients were pathologically diagnosed with HR+/HER2+, 90 (37.35%) were diagnosed with HR+/HER2-, 53 (21.99%) were diagnosed with HR-/HER2+, and 51 (21.16%) were diagnosed with HR-/HER2-. The clinicopathological characteristics of the 364 patients are presented in Tables 1 and Table 2.
Table 1: General characteristics of study population.
Table 2: General characteristics of study population.
High serum ferritin levels are associated with metastasis of breast cancer
The serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA levels in the metastatic breast cancer group were significantly higher than those in the non-metastatic group (p < 0.05). ROC analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive effect of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA on breast cancer metastasis. Area under the curve (AUC) and cut-off value were calculated. The AUC of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA was 0.869 (CI: 0.837–0.902; P < 0.001), 0.799 (CI: 0.758–0.840; P < 0.001), and 0.759 (CI: 0.712–0.805; P < 0.001), respectively (Fig. 1). The AUC of the combinations of serum ferritin and CA15-3; serum ferritin and CEA; CA15-3 and CEA; and serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA was 0.903 (CI: 0.875–0.931; P < 0.001), 0.894 (CI: 0.865–0.924; P < 0.001), 0.813 (CI: 0.775–0.854; P < 0.001), and 0.909 (CI: 0.882–0.936; P < 0.001), respectively (Fig. 1).
The best cut-off values of tumor markers were obtained by calculating the maximum Youdon index. The optimal cut-off value of serum ferritin was 170.7 µg/mL with a sensitivity of 71.37% and specificity of 88.32%. The CA15-3 cut-off value was 21.2 U/mL with a sensitivity and specificity of 56.74% and 91.94%, respectively, whereas that for CEA was 2.79 µg/mL with a sensitivity and specificity of 66.05% and 82.85%, respectively. The combination of serum ferritin and CA15-3 resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 74.88% and 92.67%, respectively. The combination of serum ferritin and CEA resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 81.86% and 84.67%, respectively. The combination of CA15-3 and CEA resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 55.87% and 94.51%, respectively. The combination of all three markers resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 85.45% and 83.88%, respectively for prediction of breast cancer metastasis. Thus, the capacity for detection metastatic breast cancer is significantly higher when using a combination of two or all three markers for detection. Among the combined two markers, combined serum ferritin and CA15-3 exhibited the highest AUC value, which was not significantly different from the combined three markers. Therefore, the combination of serum ferritin and CA15-3 was the optimal choice from the perspective of socioeconomics and predictive ability.
Table3 Ferritin, CA153 cancer antigen 15−3, CEA carcinoembryonic antigen P25, the 25th percentile; P75, the 75th percentile.
High serum ferritin exhibits the highest predictive value in HR-/HER2 + and HR-/HER2– subtypes of breast cancer
Patients were divided into four types to evaluate the predictive value of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA for breast cancer with different subtypes, and the AUCs of individual markers for patients with HR+/HER2 + breast cancer were measured (Fig. 2). The AUC of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA was 0.641 (CI: 0.516–0.765; P = 0.036), 0.742 (CI: 0.623–0.861; P < 0.001), 0.711 (CI: 0.576–0.845; P = 0.002), respectively. For patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer, the AUC of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA was 0.869 (CI: 0.821–0.918; P < 0.001), 0.894 (CI: 0.851–0.938; P < 0.001), 0.808 (CI: 0.734–0.882; P < 0.001), respectively. For patients with HR-/HER2 + breast cancer, the value was 0.846 (CI: 0.770–0.923; P < 0.001), 0.722 (CI: 0.627–0.817; P < 0.001), 0.755 (CI: 0.662–0.847; P < 0.001), respectively. For patients with HR-/HER2- breast cancer, the value was 0.845 (CI: 0.779–0.910; P < 0.001), 0.662 (CI: 0.558–0.765; P = 0.002), 0.661 (CI: 0.561–0.761; P = 0.002), respectively. CA15-3 exhibited the highest predictive value in patients with HR+/HER2 + and HR+/HER2– breast cancer. Serum ferritin exhibited the highest predictive value in patients with HR-/HER2 + and HR-/HER2– breast cancer.
High serum ferritin is associated with increased metastasis-associated tumor burden
Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between serum ferritin, CA15-3, CEA levels, and metastasis to the lymph nodes and distant organs. In patients without distant metastasis, baseline serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA levels increased as the number of metastatic lymph nodes increased. Ferritin (P < 0.001) and CEA (P = 0.001) levels were higher in patients with more than three metastatic lymph nodes than those with 1–2 or no metastatic lymph nodes. In patients with distant metastasis, ferritin (P = 0.026) and CA15-3 (P < 0.001) levels were higher in patients exhibiting metastasis to more than three distant organs than in those exhibiting 1–2 or no distant organ metastases (Fig. 3) (Table 4). Patients were divided into non-metastasis, single distant metastasis, and multiple distant metastasis groups. Serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA levels in the multiple metastasis group were significantly higher than those in the other two groups. No significant difference between these levels was observed between non-metastasis and single distant metastasis groups. ROC analysis exhibited that the AUC of ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA among the single distant metastasis group was 0.765 (CI: 0.712–0.818; P < 0.001), 0.677 (CI: 0.615–0.739; P < 0.001), 0.576 (CI: 0.505–0.647; P = 0.021), respectively. Among the multiple distant metastasis group, the AUC of ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA was 0.868 (CI: 0.830–0.907; P < 0.001), 0.855 (CI: 0.809–0.902; P < 0.001), and 0.881 (CI: 0.838–0.924; P < 0.001), respectively, indicating the higher sensitivity and specificity of serum ferritin, CA15-3, and CEA levels in predicting metastasis in the multiple metastasis group (Fig. 4).
High serum ferritin exhibits the greatest predictive value for liver and bone metastasis
Patients with breast cancer with distant metastasis were grouped according to various metastasis sites. The levels of serum tumor markers in patients with liver metastasis were significantly higher than those with metastasis to other organs (Table 3). The differences in ferritin and CEA values in each group were statistically significant (P < 0.001). ROC analysis exhibited that these serum tumor markers are more sensitive and specific for prediction of liver and bone metastasis, especially liver metastasis. The predictive value of serum tumor marker levels in patients with lung metastasis was significantly lower than that in patients with other metastases (Fig. 5 ).