Patient characteristics
All 322 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled in this study. The median age was 66 (IQR 54-77) years; 178 (55,3%) were men. On admission, according to our national protocol based on WHO guidelines, all patients were categorised into 4 severity groups. Confirmed COVID-19 cases are mostly moderate (56.2%), mild (15.5%) and severe (16.1%) cases were similarly frequent. 36 COVID-19 patients (11.2%) died in the hospital.
Clinical features are summarized in (Table 1). In total, 57 COVID-19 patients (17.7%) had already gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms on admission, the most typical initial GI symptom was diarrhea (9.6%). Among the history of comorbidities, hipertension and diabetes were the most common with 53% (171/322) and 31% (100/322), respectively.
30 COVID-19 patients (9.3%) had preexisting liver disease in the medical history; two-third of patients with liver disease were liver cirrhosis. To assess the prognosis in patients with cirrhosis, we applied the modified Child-Pugh classification. On admission, out of the 20 patients with cirrhosis, 9 CP-A (45%), 7 CP-B (35%) and 4 CP-C (20%) patients were hospitalized. One laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patient with CP-B had hepatic decompensation and died due to the onset of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The etiological agents of liver cirrhosis were as follows (Fig. 1): alcohol 40% (8/20), hepatitis C virus 15% (3/20), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis 10% (2/20), autoimmune hepatitis 5% (1/20), hepatitis B virus 5% (1/20).
Laboratory findings
The laboratory parameters and comparison among COVID-19 recovered patients (n=286) and COVID-19 deaths (n=36) are noted in (Table 2). Considering the laboratory data, mean values of AST, total bilirubin, CRP, PCT and IL-6 were significantly higher in deaths compared to COVID-19 survivors (p<.05). By contrast, mean value of albumin was significantly lower in deaths (p<.05). The calculated De Ritis ratio and age showed a significant difference between the two groups (p<.05), although no differences in comorbidities or GI symptoms were noted.
De Ritis ratio as an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients
As demonstrated (Table 3), AST, De Ritis ratio, total bilirubin, IL-6, albumin and age were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. De Ritis ratio proved to be an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality with an OR of 29.967 (CI 5.266-170.514).
Table 1 Epidemiological, clinical characteristics and severity grade of 322 COVID-19 patients admitted to Semmelweis University Department of Surgery, Transplantation and Gastroenterology between November 2020 and March 2021.
Epidemiological, clinical characteristics
|
Patients (n=322)
|
*Age (IQR)
|
66 (54-77)
|
Gender (male/female), n
|
178/144
|
Hospital stay (days)
|
11 (8-14)
|
GI symptoms n (%)
|
57 (17.7)
|
Diarrhea, n (%)
Vomit, n (%)
Melaena, n (%)
Ascites, n (%)
|
31 (9.6)
5 (1.6)
5 (1.6)
7 (2.2)
|
Hipertension, n (%)
|
171 (53)
|
Diabetes, n (%)
|
100 (31)
|
Cancer, n (%)
Anaemia, n (%)
|
21 (6.5)
9 (2.8)
|
Liver disease, n (%)
cirrhosis, n
Child-Pugh A, n
Child-Pugh B, n
Child-Pugh C, n
without cirrhosis, n
|
30 (9.3)
20
9
7
4
10
|
Severity grade
Mild, n (%)
Moderate, n (%)
Severe, n (%)
Critical, n (%)
In-hospital mortality rate, n (%)
|
50 (15.5)
181 (56.2)
52 (16.1)
39 (12.1)
36(11.2)
|
* This data is median (IQR)
IQR interquartile range
Table 2 Comparison of clinical conditions and laboratory results on admission between COVID-19 recovered patients and COVID-19 deaths
Parameter
|
COVID-19 recovered patients
n=286
|
COVID-19 deaths
n=36
|
p
|
AST, mean (SD)
|
33.1 (26)
|
74.2 (78)
|
< .001
|
ALT, mean (SD)
|
37.4 (29.6)
|
48.4 (75.3)
|
.745
|
De Ritis ratio, mean (SD)
|
1.0 (.39)
|
1.8 (.85)
|
< .001
|
GGT, mean (SD)
|
91 (123)
|
125 (169)
|
.437
|
ALP, mean (SD)
|
136.9 (126)
|
189.7 (172)
|
.061
|
Total bilirubin, mean (SD)
|
33.1 (84.6)
|
70.8 (154.4)
|
.019
|
Albumin, mean (SD)
|
35.7 (7)
|
27.9 (13.7)
|
< .001
|
CRP, mean (SD)
|
148.4 (230.9)
|
260.3 (397.9)
|
.008
|
PCT, mean (SD)
|
6.67 (46.9)
|
23.1 (92.5)
|
< .001
|
IL-6, mean (SD)
|
39.6 (43.3)
|
86.4 (60.7)
|
< .001
|
Age, mean (SD)
|
63 (16)
|
79 (10)
|
< .001
|
Hospital days, mean (SD)
|
11 (5)
|
13 (5)
|
.077
|
Diarrhea, n (%)
|
30 (10.4)
|
1 (2.7)
|
.139
|
Ascites, n (%)
|
5 (1.7)
|
2 (5.5)
|
.140
|
Hipertension, n (%)
|
154 (53.8)
|
17 (47.2)
|
.453
|
Diabetes, n (%)
|
91 (31.8)
|
9 (25)
|
.405
|
Liver disease, n (%)
|
26 (9)
|
4 (11.1)
|
.694
|
Cirrhosis, n (%)
|
17 (5.9)
|
3
|
.576
|
Statistically significant values are presented in bold.
AST aspartate aminotransferase; ALT alanine aminotransferase; GGT gamma-glutamyl transferase; ALP alkaline phosphatase; CRP C-reactive protein; PCT procalcitonin; IL-6 interleukin 6; SD standard deviation
Predictive value of the De Ritis ratio for in-hospital mortality
The ROC lines of AST, total bilirubin, IL-6, albumin and the De Ritis ratio were compared in (Fig. 2). The AUC value of the De Ritis ratio (AUC=0.850, 95% CI 0.777-0.923, p<0.05), with sensitivity of 80.6% and specificity of 75.2% were higher compared to the other parameters. The optimal cut-off value was 1.218 (Table 4).
Table 3 Logistic regression for in-hospital mortality comparing 7 laboratory parameters and age
Variable
|
ß
|
S.E
|
p
|
OR
|
CI 95%
|
AST
|
.034
|
.010
|
<.001
|
1.034
|
1.015-1.054
|
De Ritis ratio
|
3.400
|
.887
|
<.001
|
29.967
|
5.266-170.514
|
Total bilirubin
|
.008
|
.003
|
.003
|
1.008
|
1.003-1.013
|
CRP
|
-.001
|
.002
|
.336
|
.999
|
.996-1.002
|
PCT
|
.002
|
.005
|
.613
|
1.002
|
.993-1.012
|
IL-6
|
.027
|
.008
|
<.001
|
1.027
|
1.012-1.042
|
Albumin
|
-.293
|
.058
|
<.001
|
.746
|
.666-.836
|
Age
|
.129
|
.032
|
<.001
|
1.138
|
1.069-1.211
|
Statistically significant values are presented in bold.
AST aspartate aminotransferase; CRP C-reactive protein; PCT procalcitonin; IL-6 interleukin 6; S.E standard error; OR odds ratio; CI confidence interval
Table 4 Diagnostic accuracy of the 5 laboratory parameters
Prognostic marker AUC (95% CI) Cut-off Sensitivity Specificity p
AST 0.723 (0.624-0.821) 29.5 0.722 0.622 <.05
De Ritis ratio 0.850 (0.777-0.923) 1.21811 0.806 0.752 <.05
Total bilirubin 0.619 (0.519-0.719) 10.1 0.722 0.437 <.05
IL-6 0.743 (0.649-0.837) 51.915 0.722 0.748 <.05
Albumin 0.133 (0.057-0.208) 29.4 0.361 0.126 <.05
Statistically significant values are presented in bold.
AST aspartate aminotransferase; IL-6 interleukin 6; AUC area under curve; CI confidence interval
We conducted a Kaplan-Meier analysis of length for survival between COVID-19 patients stratified by different levels of the De Ritis ratio (Fig. 3). Comparing the estimated survival time of patients with De Ritis ratio ≥ 1.218 to those with De Ritis ratio <1.218, the De Ritis ratio was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (log-rank test: p<.001).
As demonstrated (Table 5), patients with higher levels of the De Ritis ratio were significantly associated with severity grade (Fig. 4), were significantly older, and had an increased occurence of ascites. In addition, we found AST and IL-6 were significantly higher, however ALT was significantly lower compared to patients with lower levels of the De Ritis ratio.