This chapter discusses and presents observation results of climate variability and change, local peoples‟ perception of climate change, impacts of climate change, coping mechanisms and adaptation practices and barriers to adaptation in the study area based on results obtained from the household survey, historical rainfall and temperature records, and qualitative information generated from various groups of the community and concerned officials through FGDs and interviews.
Of the total 191 respondents, 84% (161) and 26% (30) were male and female respectively. According to the field survey, the age-sex composition of the sample population is presented in Table 2. On the other hand, 42% of the respondents are aged between 34–64, the age between 18–33 42% and 12% is > 65. This means that both young (physically active) and old people are involved in farming. In some studies, the age of farmers has a direct bearing on the availability of able-bodied manpower for agricultural production and also on the ease of adoption of climate change adaptation strategies (Adebayo et al 2012). Also (Montle and Tewelde medhin 2014) showed that the age of household head influences agricultural production.
Table 1
The age and sex composition of the sample house were discussed.
Variable | Sample household |
| Freq | % |
Sex | Male | 161 | 84 |
Female | 30 | 26 |
Total | 191 | 100 |
Age | 18–33 | 80 | 42 |
34–64 | 87 | 46 |
> 65 | 24 | 12 |
Total | 191 | 100 |
Source, Field survey, 2020 |
3.1. Marital Status and Household size
According to the field survey, the distribution of the household by the number of people is mainly dominated by a household with 4–6 members. The household head with less than or equal to 3 members makes up 8.4%. Households with 4–6 members constituted 74.7% and households with 7 and above constituted the remaining 16.9%. Some studies show that large household size might have a positive impact on the improvement of productivity especially if members fully participate in farming activities and those households are more likely to adapt to climate change (Mugula and Mkuna 2016). Also, Gbetibouo (2009) showed that households with large sizes are more willing to choose soil conservation techniques as labor-intensive adaptation measures, especially in small-scale farming.
3.2. Educational status
Scholars believe that education is important to determine readiness to adopt new ideas, enables people to realize the diversification or specialization of livelihood activities and technology, within the framework of adaptation strategies on the impact of climate change.
Table 2
Shows that the educational status of respondents
Variable | Educational Status Responses |
Freq | % |
Educational Status | Illiterate | 59 | 30.9 |
Read and write | 11 | 5.8 |
1–8 | 22 | 11.5 |
9–12 | 71 | 37.1 |
> 12 | 28 | 14.7 |
Total | 191 | 100 |
(Survey, 2020) |
As shown in table.2, from the total number of respondents 30.9% are illiterate, 5.8% can read and write, 11.5% of them are categorized in grades 1–8, and 37.1% of them are 8–12, and 14.7% of the above grade 12. This shows that most of the HH of the Woreda are illiterate or able to read or write. Although, the illiterate may harm the local community in seeking an appropriate and feasible solution from their experience and traditional system to cope with and adapt to the changing climate change-induced shocks so they have their indigenous knowledge and experiences.
3.3. Climate change as perceived by the local people
If climate change is happening, it has a direct or indirect impact on life. By having this understanding, the respondents were asked their feeling about the situation of rainfall, temperature, and related issues. According to the survey, almost all of the respondents and the focus group from selected kebeles discussion participants indicated that there is a change in the duration of rainfall from the past two to three decades onwards. In addition, the respondents showed that the temperature is increasing. They mentioned some pieces of evidence as for the problems related to the change. Some of the occurrences related to climate change are stated in their order of severity in the table below.
Table 3
Problems related to climate change
Experiences | Responses |
Yes | No |
Frequency | % | Frequency | % |
Inconsistence of rain fall | 150 | 78.5 | 41 | 21.5 |
Increasing temperature | 158 | 83 | 33 | 17 |
Heavy rains and hails | 119 | 62.3 | 72 | 37.7 |
Crop disease with outbreak | 120 | 62.8 | 71 | 37.2 |
Food shortage | 108 | 56.5 | 83 | 43.5 |
Drought | 34 | 17.8 | 157 | 82.2 |
Water scarcity | 100 | 52.4 | 91 | 47.6 |
Indicators of climate variability between 1986 and 2020 in Anlemo the study was designated to understand whether the farmers had experienced climate variability during the last 20–33 years. Through questionnaires, the study showed that most farmers had experienced increasing temperature (83%), inconsistence of rainfall (78.5%), problems with frost (72%), crop diseases outbreak (62.8%), food shortages (56.5%) as well as drought (17.8%) and Water scarcity (52.4%) (Table, 3). Further, the study established that these farmers’ experiences may also serve as key indicators of climate variability in Anlemo. As one of the household respondents put it:
“The rain does not fall as it used to. We used to know the time it will rain, but
these days it can rain even during harvesting time and it is misleading people.
Once you plant the rain goes and the seeds dry up. So the rain is misleading
people”
3.4. Community Perception on the causes of climate change and variability
The communities' perception of climate variables and changes such as temperature and precipitation behavior of the area in past was investigated. The results reveal that a slightly higher proportion of farmers claimed that temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing and noted extreme weather change in the frequency of floods and droughts.
Change of climate was well perceived by farmers of the study area as most of them have been observing changes in temperature, precipitation, and timings of rainfall and related frequent drought. Particularly, perceptions on temperature and precipitation change of farmers of the study area (Table 4). The result indicates that most respondents, about 97.9%, perceive that there is a climate change, while 1.6% of respondents perceived that there is no change in climate or they did not know about climate change. Similarly, 91.1% of respondents feel that the temperature of Anlimo was increasing in the last three decades, whereas 4.2% of them noticed that they were not aware of temperature change or they did not feel the temperature change.
Furthermore, the farmers in the study area were experiencing climate change or variability. As revealed that about 95.3% of the respondents understand surely rainfall variability pattern in the area and they pointed out that it is a common phenomenon in the area nowadays. Rainfall comes late and goes early compared to the situation 15 years ago. On the other hand, 31.5% of the respondents reported that they understand the change of rainfall variability to some extent. Only 3.7 respondents said that they are not sure of the change or variability of the rainfall in the area. As observed from key informants and group discussion, there is a change not only in the total amount of rainfall but in the timing of the rains, with rain coming either earlier or later than expected and with rain withdraws before the normal time. About 79.1% of the respondents observed the late starting of rainfall from the normal date and 86.4% of the respondents approved the early termination of the rainy season from the normal date.
Table 4
Farmers’ perception of climate change and variability
Perception | Number of Respondents |
Yes, there is | No, there is no | I do not know |
Freq | % | Freq | % | Freq | % |
Do you think that there is climate change in your local area? | 187 | 97.9 | 3 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 |
Is there a change in the amount of rainfall during the main rain season? | 182 | 95.3 | 7 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 |
Has the timing of the onset of rain in the main season shifted? | 187 | 97.9 | 3 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 |
Has rain started late than normal? | 151 | 79.1 | 20 | 10.5 | 10 | 5.2 |
Is rain of main season early withdrawn than normal? | 165 | 86.4 | 12 | 6.3 | 8 | 4.2 |
Do you feel the temperature of the area is changing? | 166 | 86.9 | 13 | 6.8 | 12 | 6.3 |
Do you feel the temperature is increasing? | 174 | 91.1 | 9 | 4.7 | 8 | 4.2 |
Do you think that there is the fluctuation of rivers and streams water volume | 174 | 91.1 | 8 | 4.2 | 9 | 4.7 |
Do you feel frequent occurrence of drought | 174 | 91.1 | 14 | 7.3 | 3 | 1.8 |
Do you feel temperature is decreasing | 11 | 5.6 | 177 | 92.7 | 5 | 2.6 |
Do you think that decline of agriculture yields | 187 | 97.9 | 3 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 |
Source: Survey data 2020
3.5. Farmer’s perceptions about effect of climate change on food crops
In the study area, the shortage and fluctuation of rainfall that occurred due to climate change and/or variation have been highly affecting crop production. In the farmer interview, 91.6% of the respondents confirmed that climate change and/or variability harm crop production where 49% of these respondents indicated as the effect was very high, 42% and
22.5% reported as the effect was high and medium respectively. On the other hand, during the FGDs, the participants explained that some other factors like crop disease, pests, and crop weeds which have been mainly emerged due to climate change have contributed to crop failure in the study area.
Because of these, challenges, crops yield in the area decline from time to time. Comparing recent seasons’ harvest with that of what farmers used to produce using similar inputs, all FGDs, key informants, and most respondents indicated as current yield became lower in the area. In this regard, 28.5% of the respondents reported as yield became very low, 68% reported as it low and only 3.5% said as they produce the same yield. Besides, climate change/variability-induced challenges, high cost of inputs, and difficulty in accessing inputs were the other factors that contributed to the decline in crop yield in the area. Livestock rearing is the other agriculture segment affected by climate change/variability. Woreda agricultural experts, FGDs, and key informants have explained the existence of adverse influence of climate change/ variation on livestock production and productivity in their respective discussions. 97% of the respondents reported as climate change/variability adversely affects their livestock rearing. Shortage of water and pasture, and the occurrence of various diseases were the major problem that affected the livestock population in the area. It was also indicated as many farmers encounter a shortage of feed for their livestock mainly during drought seasons and as a result, many livestock became physically weak, farming animals unable to plow, their products like milk and meat declined, and livestock price became very low.
3.6. Climate data analysis
Temperature
According to NMSA (2019), the average annual minimum temperature over the country has increased by about 0.38℃, whereas, the average annual maximum temperature has increased by about 0.1℃ every decade (NMSA, 2019). Temperature distribution in the study area was characterized by a general trend of increased and annual variability. Temperature is one of the elements that determine weather conditions as well as the climate of an area. It is recorded as maximum and minimum daily, monthly and annual temperatures. Annual maximum, minimum, and average temperatures are presented in Annex 1 and it shows the warmest year was 2019, while the coldest year was 1990. Generally, the trend of temperature shows a slight increment from year to year. The average temperature of the study area has increased by 0.67ºC in the past 30 years with an annual increment of 0.22ºC. On the other hand maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 0.71ºC and 0.64ºC respectively in the past three decades.
According to the data obtained from NMSA, the average temperature of the woreda understudy ranges between 15.21 ºC and 18.45 ºC, while the average maximum temperature ranges between 21.7ºC and 24.3ºC. Accordingly, the annual minimum temperature ranges between 8.02ºC and 12.5 ºC in the past three decades.
The annual maximum temperature has shown a decreasing trend as well as the minimum the temperature has shown an increasing trend with a rate of 0.05 0c, even higher than the average annual temperature trend (Figure 2). Furthermore the mean average the minimum temperature has increased by about 7% and the mean annual maximum temperature decreased by about 2% from the year 1986 to 2020 with inter-annual variability of 5% and 2% respectively. From this, it is possible to conclude that though the mean annual maximum temperature has been decreasing, there has been an overall increase of temperature in the study area.
Rainfall The annual rainfall of Anlemo woreda ranges between 396 mm as the minimum, and 1180mm as maximum, for the past 30 years. The data analysis result shows annual rainfall has a decreasing trend in the past three decades. The amount of rainfall showed yearly fluctuation between 1986 and 2019 (Fig. 4). The average rainfall of the woreda is 1001 mm in the past three decades.
Source: NMSA
These slight reduction amounts and the high variability of rainfall brings difficult to predict the situation. This affects especially farmers whose life is dependent on rain-feed agriculture. Therefore, the sum-up of the perception of the people and the metrological data shows, the rainfall is slightly decreasing and highly variable.
Monthly rainfall distribution and variability
As in most of Ethiopian woreda’s Anlemo woreda’s rainy months are Jun, July, August, and September while November, December, and January are the lowest rainy months. As shown in the following figure, the wettest month is August, while the driest month is December with an average rainfall of 20.98 mm. On the other hand, the wettest season is kiremt (summer), while the driest season is bega (winter). Relatively, belg (spring) is the second rainy season in the woreda.
3.7. Climate change impact on agriculture and crop productivity
Ethiopia has historically suffered from climate variability and extremes. Rain failures contributed to crop failures, deaths of livestock, hunger, and even famines in the past. Even relatively small events during the growing season, like too much or too little rain at the wrong times, can spell disasters. Small farmers and cattle herders, who are already struggling to cope with the impacts of current climatic variability and poverty, face daunting tasks to adapt to future climate change.
3.8. Local Adaptive strategies
One of the intended objectives of this study was to assess some of coping and adaptation methods being practiced by farmers along with community-based adaptation strategies in response to negative effects of climate change and variability. As stated by World Bank, (2010), local existing knowledge is one and the most important adaptive strategies in overcoming the challenges of climate change and variability. In the study, the researcher has assessed both the previous and currently existing local community’s adaptation strategies/mechanisms.
Table 5
Local adaptation strategies by kebele
Current adaptation strategies | Responses |
Yes | No | Total |
Freq | % | Freq | % | Freq | % |
Diversify income source, use improved agricultural input, and sell livestock | 107 | 56 | 84 | 44 | 191 | 100 |
Using different type of crop varieties | 117 | 61 | 74 | 39 | 191 | 100 |
Applying short season crop variety | 128 | 67 | 63 | 33 | 191 | 100 |
Diversify income source | 101 | 53 | 90 | 47 | 191 | 100 |
Use irrigation | 10 | 5 | 181 | 95 | 191 | 100 |
Use improved agricultural inputs | 136 | 71 | 55 | 29 | 191 | 100 |
Use early matured crops | 71 | 37 | 120 | 63 | 191 | 100 |
(Survey, 2020) |
As indicated in Table 5, 56% of the interviewed farmers responded as they use diversified income sources, use improved agricultural input, and sell livestock adaptation strategies. Specifically, 67% responded as they utilize, Applying short-season crop, and the other 53% responded as they employ diversified income sources in their adaptation effort. The other, 71% of respondents reported that they use improved agricultural inputs. 37% of the total respondents indicated as they use early matured crops and 5% as they use irrigation.
The current generation also uses some of the above-mentioned and some more adaptation strategies. Diversify income sources, use irrigation practices, use improved agricultural inputs (improved seeds and), early mature crops, sell livestock, temporary migrate, support from relatives, and food aid. In many cases, adaptation choices among small-scale farmers are limited by inadequate financial resources and knowledge. Therefore, reducing vulnerability is a key aspect to improving small-scale farmers’ resilience.
3.9. Determinants of farmers land management practices as means of adaptation: logistic regression model
In the previous chapters, some of the specific research questions were discussed using descriptive statistics such as cross-tabulation and percentage distribution. Moreover, the the researchers tried to look at the relationship among the respondent’s socio-economic, demographic, and policy and institution-related characteristics of the farmer in the study area. In addition to this farmer perception about the problem of climate variability and their response to their coping mechanisms are discussed. However, this was not enough to make a deduction and explore the predictive power of the independent variables. The background variables of the respondents were also analyzed by applying the binary logistic regression model. In the field, the targeted populations were asked questions regarding their response to the problems. Among interviewed 191 respondents 88(73.3%) of the total population respond to land degradation as the problem of climate variability in different ways and the remaining 32(26.7%) farmer households did not respond to the the problem of land degradation as the problem of climate variability one way or another.
Age, sex, literacy, household size, farm size, contact with extension agents, Access to climate information, availability of credit services, farmers' perception as a problem were taken as predictors to fit the model. These predictors (independent variables) are believed to have the power to predict the probability of occurrence of the outcome variable (land management). This is to means that, the probability or likelihood a respondent has towards land management practices are explained by these independent variables. For this purpose, the binary logistic regression model is the multivariate statistical tool that was used for the analysis of the subject matter. For simplicity, only those variables statistically significant are discussed.
The binary logistic regression model showed that there is no significant relationship between the age of farmers and terracing, but the relationship is positive since the value of Exp (B) is greater than 1 (Apex 1). A one-unit increase in the age of farmers is found to have increased odds of manure application by a factor of 1.89 and the result is statistically significant (p < 0.05). On the other hand, male-headed households are expected to perceive climate change and adaptation, as better endowed with labor. In this research too, positive and significant relationships between the sex of household heads and perception are observed and the result is statistically significant (p < 0.05). For the analysis, male sex is given a code of 1 and for female sex code, 2 is given. Taking male-headed households as a reference group; the odds of perception among female-headed households was only 1.75 times that of the male-headed households (apex 1). The finding conforms with the assumption that men are more likely to perceive than women.