Table 1. Seasonal months according to IMD
Seasons
|
Months
|
Winter
|
January – February
|
Pre-Monsoon
|
March – May
|
Monsoon
|
June – September
|
Post-Monsoon
|
October – December
|
Table 2. Detail of selected area of Uttarakhand, India
Stations
|
Altitude (m) (above MSL)
|
Meridian
(Degree)
|
Parallel
(Degree)
|
Data-Period
|
Almora
|
1676
|
29.59 N
|
79.65 E
|
1901-2016
|
Kashipur
|
183
|
29.21 N
|
78.95 E
|
1901-2016
|
Landsdown
|
1532
|
29.83 N
|
78.69 E
|
1901-2016
|
Mukteswar
|
2311
|
29.47 N
|
78.69 E
|
1901-2014
|
Table 3. Statistical parameters used in this study
Table 4. Developed WANN Models for rainfall predictions
Season
|
Model
|
Network
|
Monsoon
|
WANN-01
|
4-6-1
|
WANN-02
|
4-7-1
|
WANN-03
|
4-8-1
|
WANN-04
|
4-9-1
|
Winter
|
WANN-05
|
4-6-1
|
WANN-06
|
4-7-1
|
WANN-07
|
4-8-1
|
WANN-08
|
4-9-1
|
Pre-Monsoon
|
WANN-09
|
4-6-1
|
WANN-10
|
4-7-1
|
WANN-11
|
4-8-1
|
WANN-12
|
4-9-1
|
Post-Monsoon
|
WANN-13
|
4-6-1
|
WANN-14
|
4-7-1
|
WANN-15
|
4-8-1
|
WANN-16
|
4-9-1
|
Table 5. Statistical analysis of seasonal rainfall (mm) data for Almora
Statistical parameter
|
Winter
|
Pre- monsoon
|
Monsoon
|
Post-monsoon
|
Mean (mm)
|
91.05
|
112.42
|
746.82
|
60.40
|
Maximum (mm)
|
320.60
|
270.40
|
1187.20
|
374.50
|
Minimum (mm)
|
5.80
|
0.00
|
284.80
|
0.00
|
SD (mm)
|
57.05
|
59.27
|
185.58
|
65.56
|
CV (%)
|
62.66
|
52.72
|
24.85
|
108.54
|
CS
|
1.32
|
0.62
|
0.34
|
2.54
|
Table 6. Statistical analysis of seasonal rainfall (mm) data for Landsdown
Statistical parameter
|
Winter
|
Pre-monsoon
|
Monsoon
|
Post-monsoon
|
Mean (mm)
|
118.48
|
115.48
|
1586.58
|
75.60
|
Maximum
|
464.20
|
440.30
|
2826.70
|
540.80
|
Minimum
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
SD (mm)
|
95.94
|
81.59
|
519.00
|
103.82
|
CV (%)
|
80.98
|
70.65
|
32.71
|
137.33
|
CS
|
1.08
|
1.12
|
-0.06
|
2.67
|
Table 7. Statistical analysis of seasonal rainfall (mm) data for Kashipur
Statistical parameter
|
Winter
|
Pre-monsoon
|
Monsoon
|
Post-monsoon
|
Mean (mm)
|
62.51
|
48.45
|
1060.53
|
59.50
|
Maximum (mm)
|
248.40
|
208.30
|
2716.40
|
451.90
|
Minimum (mm)
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
212.00
|
0.00
|
SD (mm)
|
53.86
|
40.47
|
456.87
|
83.95
|
CV (%)
|
86.15
|
83.52
|
43.08
|
141.10
|
CS
|
1.07
|
1.16
|
1.05
|
2.43
|
Table 8. Statistical analysis of seasonal rainfall (mm) data for Mukteswar
Statistical parameter
|
Winter
|
Pre-monsoon
|
Monsoon
|
Post-monsoon
|
Mean (mm)
|
112.25
|
147.93
|
964.43
|
85.04
|
Maximum (mm)
|
336.90
|
376.00
|
1839.00
|
478.90
|
Minimum (mm)
|
2.80
|
18.80
|
467.10
|
0.00
|
SD (mm)
|
65.34
|
71.80
|
256.22
|
94.68
|
CV (%)
|
58.21
|
48.53
|
26.57
|
111.34
|
CS
|
0.88
|
0.82
|
0.65
|
2.29
|
Table 9. Selected models of all the seasons for Landsdown station
Station
|
Selected Model
|
Seasons
|
Network
|
Training
|
Testing
|
Overall
|
RMSE
|
CE
|
R2
|
R2
|
R2
|
Landsdown
|
WANN-08
|
Winter
|
4-9-1
|
0.870
|
0.557
|
0.665
|
49.073
|
0.732
|
WANN-10
|
Pre-monsoon
|
4-7-1
|
0.988
|
0.572
|
0.857
|
32.192
|
0.846
|
WANN-02
|
Monsoon
|
4-7-1
|
0.988
|
0.361
|
0.815
|
232.736
|
0.805
|
WANN-16
|
Post-monsoon
|
4-9-1
|
0.893
|
0.692
|
0.806
|
47.739
|
0.796
|
Table 10. Models of all the seasons for Almora station.
Station
|
Selected Model
|
Seasons
|
Network
|
Training
|
Testing
|
Overall
|
RMSE
|
CE
|
R2
|
R2
|
R2
|
Almora
|
WANN-08
|
Winter
|
4-9-1
|
0.874
|
0.456
|
0.822
|
24.804
|
0.810
|
WANN-09
|
Pre-monsoon
|
4-6-1
|
0.757
|
0.581
|
0.704
|
32.865
|
0.701
|
WANN-02
|
Monsoon
|
4-7-1
|
0.897
|
0.373
|
0.781
|
88.011
|
0.776
|
WANN-15
|
Post-monsoon
|
4-8-1
|
0.999
|
0.508
|
0.732
|
34.771
|
0.725
|
Table11. Selected models of all the seasons for Mukteswar station
Station
|
Selected Model
|
Seasons
|
Network
|
Training
|
Testing
|
Overall
|
RMSE
|
CE
|
R2
|
R2
|
R2
|
Mukteswar
|
WANN-05
|
Winter
|
4-6-1
|
0.801
|
0.769
|
0.748
|
32.575
|
0.748
|
WANN-10
|
Pre-monsoon
|
4-7-1
|
0.854
|
0.630
|
0.780
|
37.232
|
0.738
|
WANN-03
|
Monsoon
|
4-8-1
|
0.953
|
0.701
|
0.867
|
94.317
|
0.864
|
WANN-16
|
Post-monsoon
|
4-9-1
|
0.893
|
0.642
|
0.817
|
41.631
|
0.811
|
Table 12. Selected models of all the seasons for Kashipur station.
Station
|
Selected Model
|
Seasons
|
Network
|
Training
|
Testing
|
Overall
|
RMSE
|
CE
|
R2
|
R2
|
R2
|
Kashipur
|
WANN-08
|
Winter
|
4-9-1
|
0.8332
|
0.6220
|
0.785
|
24.785
|
0.782
|
WANN-10
|
Pre-monsoon
|
4-7-1
|
0.9992
|
0.9960
|
0.998
|
01.240
|
0.999
|
WANN-01
|
Monsoon
|
4-6-1
|
0.9821
|
0.1421
|
0.770
|
239.490
|
0.731
|
WANN-15
|
Post-monsoon
|
4-8-1
|
0.9958
|
0.7240
|
0.864
|
34.118
|
0.839
|