HUA is defined by the finding of an abnormally high level of UA in the blood. HUA could be associated to factors from different aspects such as laboratory variables, food intake habits (including drinking history and smoking history) and education[17, 18]. Our previous study demonstrated correlations between lifestyle choices and HUA[4]. In the current study, we developed a RF based prediction model for HUA and analyzed its associated risk factors. In fact, we were the first to predict HUA using RF.
One important concern is parameters related to lipid metabolism. In our survey, TG showed the highest weight (feature value) in the judgment of RF models in both genders (Table 2). Elevated TG will lead to the production and utilization of more free fatty acid, accelerating synthesis of purines and UA[19]. Matsuura et al. has reported that visceral obesity patients had higher lipogenesis activity[20]. Tight correlations as further proof between weight, BMI, WC and HUA were made in our model. Besides, other indicators related to TG have been proved to be closely related to HUA: Chen et al. showed that the hyper triglyceridemic waist phenotype was strongly associated with HUA[21]. Xu et al. have shown that TG and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol have stronger relationship with HUA than other lipid indices[22]. All of these implied an important link between lipid metabolism and HUA.
FPG ranked tenth in males. Previous studies of relationship between UA levels and diabetes have yielded inconsistent findings, including positive, negative and no significant relationship[23–25]. Our current study demonstrated an inverse association between male FPG and HUA prevalence in diabetes individuals (OR = 0.446, CI = 0.311–0.639), and a positive association in individuals with normal glucose tolerance, while the latter disappeared when other covariates were included (OR = 1.073, CI = 0.897–1.284). Similarly, a bell-shaped relation between FPG and SUA levels has been shown in several studies[26]. The possible mechanism for a positive relationship between glucose and UA may be related to the dual biological properties of UA. UA usually has an antioxidative effect; however, it becomes a strong oxidant in the environment of metabolic syndrome[27]. Inflammation and oxidative stress induced by metabolic syndrome and HUA may predispose individuals to a higher risk for diabetes[24]. Biological mechanism underlying the relation between higher FPG and SUA levels is thought to be due to the uricosuric effect of glycosuria [28]. Glycosuria occurs when glucose in the renal tubules exceeds its maximum absorption capacity, which inhibits the reabsorption of UA at the same place. What needs to be emphasized here is that it is glycosuria, rather than FPG, that leads to increased UA excretion. Further studies, especially of UA in the normal glucose tolerance group, are urgently needed.
ALT ranked fifth in males and sixth in females. ALT is closely related to intrahepatic fat deposition and has been widely considered as a marker of nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFLD) in some epidemiological studies[29, 30]. Many clinical studies have shown that HUA and NAFLD have similar metabolic disorders, including insulin resistance, dyslipidemia and visceral obesity[6, 31, 32]. Therefore, there may be a positive correlation between elevated SUA and elevated ALT. Another plausible explanation for the link between HUA and ALT elevation is oxidative stress[33]. The production of UA is accompanied by the production of reactive oxygen species. In patients with NAFLD, increased SUA levels may alter endogenous antioxidant defenses of liver fat peroxidation, thereby promoting the progression of liver injury and leading to elevated ALT[29, 34].
The peak age of prevalence in females was completely opposite to that in males (Fig. 3). However, the curvilinear distribution of HUA prevalence between the sexes indicated that both sexes may be affected by hormonal factors with only a difference in degree. As one of the mechanisms underlying the gender discrepancy in the prevalence of HUA, the estrogen’s uricosuric effect has been widely recognized[35]. Multivariate analysis found a negative and a positive association between HUA prevalence and age in the female groups under and over 50 years old (OR = 0.894, CI = 0.852–0.938; OR = 1.046, CI = 1.007–1.086), respectively. While the question of whether androgen could independently affect SUA levels, as in the case of estrogen, remains controversial. The urate transporter 1, a specific urate transporter, expresses higher in male mice than in female mice, which are positively affected by testosterone(T)[36], and it also has been reported that androgen played a certain role in promoting the catabolism of nucleotide[37], both of which suggest that T levels are positively correlated with UA levels. Rosen et al. showed no difference in the serum T levels between asymptomatic HUA and normouricemic group[38]. However, a few studies found a negative association between T levels and SUA, which are consistent with us[36, 39]. It has been reported that serum total T and free T concentrations fall by 0.8% and 2% per year in middle-aged men, which may provide an explanation for the high prevalence in older men[40]. Insulin resistance, obesity, alcohol intake may also be associated with higher prevalence in HUA with age [41–43]. The phenomenon that the prevalence of male HUA decreases during the third to the seventh decades then shots up needs to be further studied. Besides, higher values among young male may be a secondary consequence of other pathological change[44].
SBP was only shown in female ranked tenth. Previous studies have shown that SUA helped to maintain blood pressure through both acute renal vasoconstriction (via stimulation of the renin angiotensin system) and chronical renal microvascular and interstitial disease (by inducing salt-sensitivity via activation MAP kinase, PDGF, and COX-2 systems)[45, 46]. When renal microvascular disease continues to progress (a lesion resembling arteriolosclerosis), and sufficient narrowing of the arteriolar lumen occurs, a component of the hypertension becomes salt-driven, renal-dependent, and independent of UA levels[47], which may also explain the no-significance association between SUA and hypertension in the older female group[48] and males. In addition, Cr of male and female HUA patients in our study was significantly higher than that of non-HUA patients. It has been reported that gout patients had lower Cr clearance and fractional UA excretion[49]. Obermayr et al. found that UA levels of 7-8.9 mg/dl nearly doubled the risk for incident kidney disease (OR = 1.74, CI: 1.45–2.09), while UA levels > 9.0 mg/dl got a tripled risk (OR = 3.12, CI: 2.29–4.25)[50].
The study also has some limitations. Firstly, the dataset was based on a cross-sectional, single-center study, which may have selection bias and lack of representativeness, and such a study cannot provide causality information. Secondly, all these ostensible subjects might have some diseases they do not know by themselves, which could influence SUA. Thirdly, data loss occurs when continuous variables are converted to categorical variables (labeled individual SUA levels with having HUA or not).