To examine the accuracy of water level acquired by each mission, the errors of individual satellite were analyzed first. Then, absolute bias of GEDI was corrected and the combined long time-series lake levels were generated. In addition, influence factors on the accuracy of the observations were investigated.
Lake levels retrieved by ICESat-2
Consistency and relevance evaluation
Fig. 2 displayed the consistency and correlation between the estimated water levels and the in-situ gauge data. It indicated that there was a high consistency between the variation trend of estimated and observed water levels, and the difference between them was mainly caused by the inconsistency of water level height datum. Fig. 3 presented that even though the effective monitoring days are different, high correlations between altimetry and gauge data were found for four lakes. The most effective days of Hongze Lake were up to 36 days, and the highest correlation of Gaoyou Lake was up to 0.995 with P<0.001. Based on their high consistency and correlation, the offsets were considered to be the systematic bias between EGM2008 and Wusong elevation.
Relative and absolute accuracy evaluation
In order to remove the systematic bias, errors caused by the differences of geographical locations and observation time of laser footprints, we firstly chose the repeated tracks and the corresponding water levels measured nearly at the same time for relative accuracy evaluation. The differences derived from Eq. (2) mean the height difference of two adjacent dates from the observations of the repeated tracks, or the corresponding measurements difference of two dates’ water levels from the hydrological stations. The difference comparison of Lake Taihu was visually illustrated in Fig. 4. It can be seen that except for several pairs, most of the pairs had small differences. The quantitative MRBs of the four lakes were tabulated in Table 2. The MRB ranged from 0.01 m-0.05 m with the standard derivation of 0.07 m-0.20 m, which revealed that the relative error of water level estimation by ICESat-2 can reach within 0.05 m.
For direct comparison, the vertical datum of the in-situ data was adjusted to the EGM2008 datum by subtracting the mean system offsets. From Table 2, it can be seen that the MAE of four lakes spanned from 0.03 m-0.10 m with RMSE ranging from 0.04 m-0.13 m. Besides, the boxplot of MAE was detailed in Fig.5, which illustrated that the medians of four lakes were all under 0.08 m. Among them, Gaoyou Lake had the highest accuracy with minimum MAE and RMSE, then was Lake Taihu. However, several outliers (abnormally large errors) appeared on Lake Chaohu and Hongze. Lake Hongze had the largest MAE, RMSE, and relative larger outliers, which indicated that there was a relatively large difference between ICESat-2 estimations and the measured water levels.
Besides, the influence of strong and weak beams on the accuracy of water level extraction was also further analyzed. The MAE of four lakes’ strong beams observations versus that of weak beams improved within 0.01 m, which indicated that the performance of strong beams was slightly better than the weak beams for lake water levels’ estimation.
Table 2
The evaluation of ICESat-2 versus the in-situ water levels acquired nearly at the same time
Lakes
|
MRB(m)
|
MAE(m)
|
RMSE(m)
|
Chaohu Lake
|
-0.02±0.14
|
0.06±0.05
|
0.08
|
Hongze Lake
|
0.05±0.20
|
0.10±0.09
|
0.13
|
Gaoyou Lake
|
0.01±0.07
|
0.03±0.02
|
0.04
|
Taihu Lake
|
-0.01±0.07
|
0.05±0.03
|
0.06
|
Lake level retrieved by GEDI
Relevance and absolute accuracy evaluation
Fig. 6 showed the correlation between the GEDI estimated water levels and the in-situ measurements. The sub-figures illustrated that the effective days of GEDI were 18, 22, 17, and 10 days for Lake Chaohu, Hongze, Gaoyou, and Taihu, respectively, and the R spanned from 0.560-0.952, which demonstrated that the efficiency of data and the accuracy of GEDI were relatively lower and inferior to that of ICESat-2. Among them, Chaohu Lake had the highest correlation (R=0.952, P < 0.001), while the Taihu Lake had the lowest correlation (R=0.560, P > 0.05) and the fewest effective data. Compared to the total observation days, the number of effective days indiccated that GEDI had more outliers or data that could not be used due to the large uncertainty. We did not evaluate GEDI through indirect accuracy of repeated orbits due to fewer valid data and there were no repeated tracks among the effetive data. The MAE and RMSE as the direct comparision results were listed in Table 3, which ranged from 0.31 m to 0.38 m and 0.35 m to 0.46 m for the four lakes. Obviously, the larger postive bias turned out that GEDI overestimated the water levels with lower accuacy.
Fig.7 further dicpicted the boxplot of the MAE. The medians were 0.24 m, 0.37 m, 0.21 m and 0.33 m for Lake Chaohu, Hongze, Gaoyou and Taihu, respectively. And the MAE of Hongze Lake was larger than that of the other three lakes whether based on ICESat-2 or GEDI. This was perhaps due to that the the water velocity in the sub-areas of Hongze Lake was more sensitive to the change of wind speed resulting from wind-driven circulation that was absent in other lakes. Moreover, the conversion of vertical datum introduced additional errors.
Table 3
The evaluation of GEDI versus the in-situ water levels acquired nearly at the same time
Lakes
|
MAE (m)
|
RMSE (m)
|
Chaohu Lake
|
0.35±0.28
|
0.45
|
Hongze Lake
|
0.38±0.20
|
0.43
|
Gaoyou Lake
|
0.33±0.32
|
0.46
|
Taihu Lake
|
0.31±0.16
|
0.35
|
Coverage beams versus full power beams
To examine the influence of beam strength on the accuracy of water level measurements, mean water levels were computed first from coverage beams (beam 0000, beam 0001, beam 0010, and beam 0011) and full power beams (beam 0101, beam 0110, beam 1000, and beam 1011). Then the biases between different beams and the in-situ data were analyzed. The mean error between observations from coverage and power beams and in-situ water levels were 0.84 m and 0.72 m, 1.14 m and 1.06 m, 0.89 m and 0.64 m, 0.68 m and 0.65 m for Chao Lake, Hongze Lake, Gaoyou Lake and Tai Lake, respectively. The accuracies were correspondingly improved by 0.12 m (14.3%), 0.08 m (7.0%), 0.25 m (28.1%), and 0.03 m (4.4%), which proved that power beams can yield a higher accuracy in comparison to the coverage ones. Therefore, the power beam measurements were recommended for water level retrieval.
Time-series lake levels by combining ICESat-2 and adjusted GEDI
After adjusting GEDI’s results by subtracting the mean error between the in-situ measurements of each lake, long time-series lake water levels were derived. Fig. 8 illustrated the combined dynamics of Lake Hongze, and their corresponding in-situ measurements. It can be seen that even after bias adjustment, GEDI's overall water levels were higher or lower than that of Jiangba Station. For example, the water level of days on October 8, 2020, and August 5, 2021 were obviously higher than in-situ measuring data. Nevertheless, the overall change trend of the two was consistent. Both presented a decline trend in 2019 with the lowest water level 11.35 m on August 4, 2019, and an increase trend in 2020.
Moreover, Fig. 9 further displayed the monthly and annual changes. Except that there were only two months records in 2018, from the view of inter-annual change, it displayed that the water levels in the synchronous months of Hongze Lake showed a downward and then an upward trend from year 2019 to 2021. From the intra-annual change of 2019, both the estimated and in-situ data showed that the lake water levels were falling since February, until it reached the lowest water level in July. This condition was consistent with the news report that the average water level of Hongze Lake fell to 11.49 m (below the lowest navigable dead water level of 11.50 m) on July 17 due to the continuous drought and little rain in the summer of 2019, the increase of agricultural irrigation water and the absence of passenger water in the upstream. The estimated water level (Fig.9 (a)) in August was slightly 0.07 m lower than that of in-situ gauge (Fig.9 (b)). Then, the water level rose to its highest from August to September, and began to decline from October to November, finally, increased again in December. For the year 2020, both presented a decline trend from March to June, and then increased from June to October, the differences occurred in June with 0.16 m higher and September with 0.18 m lower than that of in-situ measurements. For year 2021, there was an upward trend from January to May and a downward trend from May to July. The combined estimated results in April were from GEDI observations and were much lower than that of in- situ water levels, which can also be seen from the water level of individual day in the above Fig.8.
Assuming that the water level in 2018 can be expressed by the last two months, and the annual average water levels for 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 were 12.42 m, 12.25 m, 12.45 m, and 12.99 m respectively. Compared with the previous year, the annual change were -0.17 m/yr, 0.20 m/yr and 0.54 m/yr with an average 0.19 m/yr. The corresponding annual average water levels from Jiangba station were 12.58 m, 13.32 m, 12.43 m and 13.00 m. It increased -0.26 m, 0.15 m and 0.53 m year by year with average annual increase 0.14 m/yr. The annual increase difference of two datasets was 0.05 m/yr, which turned out the combining of ICESat-2 and GEDI missions has a great potential to monitor long time-series lake water levels. Besides the Hongze Lake, the comparisons of the other three lakes’ annual change retrieved by the combined results and the in-situ measurements was tabulated in Table 4. The mean annual increase of the estimated and the in-situ water levels was -0.11 m/yr and -0.05m/yr, -0.11 m/yr and -0.09 m/yr, and -0.06 m/yr and -0.04 m/yr for Chao Lake, Gaoyou Lake and Tai Lake, respectively. The annual differences between both datasets were 0.06 m/yr, 0.05 m/yr, 0.05 m/yr and 0.02 m/yr.
Table 4
The comparison of yearly mean and increase of water level acquired by combining ICESat-2 and GEDI between in-situ data for four lakes
Lakes
|
Yearly change
|
Estimated lake level(m)
|
In-situ lake level(m)
|
|
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
Chaohu
|
Mean
|
7.85
|
7.38
|
7.86
|
7.50
|
9.08
|
8.90
|
9.42
|
8.93
|
Increase
|
|
-0.47
|
0.48
|
-0.35
|
|
-0.19
|
0.53
|
-0.50
|
Hongze
|
Mean
|
12.42
|
12.25
|
12.45
|
12.99
|
12.58
|
12.32
|
12.43
|
13.00
|
Increase
|
|
-0.17
|
0.20
|
0.54
|
|
-0.26
|
0.15
|
0.53
|
Gaoyou
|
Mean
|
5.97
|
5.58
|
5.76
|
/
|
6.19
|
5.71
|
6.01
|
/
|
Increase
|
|
-0.39
|
0.18
|
/
|
|
-0.47
|
0.30
|
/
|
Taihu
|
Mean
|
1.54
|
1.56
|
1.72
|
1.36
|
3.32
|
3.31
|
3.47
|
3.20
|
Increase
|
|
0.02
|
0.16
|
-0.36
|
|
-0.01
|
0.16
|
-0.27
|