Water is the lifeline of man, and it is predicted that the Third World War would be fought over water (Singh, 26 Sep. 2021). In recent years all the conventions on climate change have emphasised water conservation. The COP26 concluded in Glasgow in 2021 and passed a resolution whereby all the member countries agreed to conserve water. This was evident from the Water Pavilion discussions (United Nations, 2021; Breslin, 27th Oct. 2021). Water conservation is needed for the sustenance of all the economic activities, especially agriculture which still remains the largest livelihood provider and its contribution to the economic income of the countries is also substantial. As per World Bank (April 1, 2022), agriculture contributed 4 per cent to the global GDP and in some developing countries, it was as high as 25 per cent. India is also an agrarian economy with 20.2 per cent of the GVA coming from this sector (MoSPI, 2022). Groundwater has a direct impact on agriculture production. The groundwater level depletion is not an issue which is limited to developing countries or agrarian economies. Developed countries like USA and Australia are also showing signs of water level drowning drastically (Konikow and Kendy, 2005; Kong et al., 2022). The situation is more alarming in developing countries like India because of the government policies like power subsidies (Famiglietti, 2014; Rodell et al. 2018; Bierkens and Wada, 2019; De Graaf, 2019). India used 230 cubic kilometres of groundwater per year as per the World Bank report (2012) and by 2050 it is estimated that 60 per cent of all aquifiers will be in dire condition (Das & Burke, 2013).
The shift in irrigation sources from surface water to groundwater is phenomenal in India as the percentage change in the use of groundwater increased from 10.4 per cent in 1970 to 62 per cent in 2019 (Roy & Shah, 2002; Ministry of Water Resources, 2007; Gulati et al. 2019). One of the primary reasons for the exponential increase in the consumption of groundwater is the lackadaisical attitude of the state in completing the ongoing irrigation projects, maintenance of surface water infrastructure and there is also an expansion in land cultivation intensity due to the availability of democratic resources (Gulati et al. 1999; Roy & Shah, 2002, Gulati et al, 2019, Tripathi et al 2016). On the other hand, the overuse of groundwater is now at alarming level. Climatic factors can also be attributed to the fall in the groundwater level (Shah, 2009, Tack et al. 2017; Kumar, 2018; Zaveri and Lobell, 2019). The maximum temperature has soared high, there is an asymmetry in day and night temperature, and increased humidity are all factors that are affecting the groundwater level (Papadakis, 1970; Rupakumar et al. 1994; Rupakumar et al. 2002; Mall et al. 2006; Radhakrishnan et al. 2017). All these climatic conditions along with average groundwater pumping level, high electricity subsidies, adoption of high-water consumption crops like paddy, flat tariff policy on electricity, change in the cropping pattern and irrigation intensity have depleted the aquifer of groundwater by 2 cm. every year in the Northern region and by 1 to 2 cm. in the Southern region (Singh, 2012; Kaur and Vatta, 2015; Baweja et al., 2017; Asoka et al., 2017; Shah, 2018; Badiani and Jessoe, 2019, Sidhu, 2020; Kishore et al., 2020; Bhattarai et al., 2021; Dangar, 2021). Thus, the above-mentioned factors increase the ratio of irrigational intensity to agriculture production putting groundwater sources under threat of exhaustion due to the non-availability of substitutes (Prihar et al., 1990; Singh, 1991).
The situation in the Grain Basket of the country is also not different. Punjab led the Green Revolution in terms of production and productivity of food grains. The Green Revolution led to the shift in cropping pattern to high yielding variety seeds that needed four times more water than normal (Srivastava, 2015 & Eliazer Nelson et al. 2019). Punjab is naturally endowed with ample water supply and had one of the most established canal systems in the country. The green revolution however prompted a shift from canal to tube-well irrigation because of its flexibility and reliability (Dhawan, 1988; Kaul & Sekhon, 1991; Singh, 1991). This is evident from the fact that the area under tubewell in irrigation has increased from less than 20 per cent in 1950 to 72 per cent in 2020 (Dhawan 1990, Shaw 1998, Shah et al. 2003, Chandrakant 2021). One of the positives of this shift was that the state got relief from the problem of waterlogging and salinity as the water table went up but there was excessive exploitation of groundwater (Dhawan, 1993). In the last decade of the last century, groundwater depletion became a cause of worry in many states. Punjab ranked first at the global level and at the national level, it was marked as an “overexploited area” (World Bank 1998, Mohan, 2019). In the late 1980s, the crisis became acute because of the rising intensity of wheat rice crop rotation and increase dependency on groundwater for irrigation (Singh, 1991; Dhawan, 1993; GOI 2007). Bansil (1992) showed that water table depletion in eight major districts of Punjab ranged between 0.5 to 4 metres in the period between 1978 and 1986. In the same year. Parihar et al. (1990) showed that out of nineteen agro-climatic zones fifteen zones showed a falling trend in per year average to the tune of 0.04 metres to 0.47 meters. Singh (1991) while commenting on groundwater use in Punjab stated that changing rainfall and land use activity were the main culprits for the fall in groundwater level. One of the primary reasons for the increase in tubewells was the subsidised electricity provided from 1997. Other reasons are an unsuitable combination of the crop with soil quality, minimum support price, convenient agronomic practices of farmers like transplanting rice before time and increasing the puddling intensity (Bhullar and Sidhu 2006, Singh 2009). Most of the literature on agriculture and groundwater depletion from the state of Punjab point out that anthropogenic factors that are causing groundwater depletion are wheat rice cropping pattern groundwater irrigation, procurement policy, electricity policy, technological change and unregulated market infrastructure (Sarkar 2011; Singh 2012; Sarkar and Das 2014; Kang and Kaur, 2017; Kaur et al. 2017; Singh and Park 2018).
All these literatures point out to the fact that groundwater depletion is a serious issue in Punjab. So far the studies on Punjab have two basic limitations- either they study one district/Zone or they have studied the state as an aggregate (Prihar et al. 1990; Singh, 2008; Mahajan et al. 2009; Singh, 2012; Sarkar& Das, 2014; Bajwa, 2020). This study takes seventeen districts of Punjab at 23 time points along with other variables to have detailed analysis.