When taking into consideration the rough data description, it is evident that the relative frequencies of the wild-type and melanic phenotypes are not evenly distributed in the two lineages. Indeed, individuals that belonged to the eastern lineage showed a higher proportion of the melanic phenotype (25.5%), whereas in the western one only 7.0% of the observations showed the melanic colouration, suggesting that individuals belonging to the H. v. carbonarius subspecies are phenotypically more variable than those belonging to the other.
We showed that the gradient of phenotypic variability between the two morphs across their geographic distribution is not linear and follows very complex patterns for both longitude and latitude. Indeed, in H. v. viridiflavus the occurrence of the melanic phenotype is mainly restricted to Sardinia with only rare observations in the rest of its distribution. This finding is consistent with the current knowledge about the distribution of melanism in the species (Zuffi, 2007; Zuffi, 2008) as most melanic colourations in the H. v. viridiflavus subspecies have been reported for the Thyrrenian islands both in large ones (Sardinia and Corsica) as well as in smaller islets like in Tuscanian Archipelago. As a matter of fact, the evolution of body colourations is postulated to be determined by a broad variety of biotic and abiotic factors, among which predator avoidance plays a major role on their selection over time (Andrén and Nilson, 1981; Stuart-Fox et al 2008; Robledo-Ospina et al 2017). In the specific case of the Western whip snake, it is reasonable to expect that a full black colouration could be more easily detectable by avian predators against the terrain background, consequently suffering negative selection and thus becoming less and less frequent in comparison with more disruptive colourations over time (Andrén and Nilson, 1981; Castella et al 2013). However, given the high prevalence of melanic colourations in Sardinia, more than ¼ of individuals, such hypothesis seems unlikely. Alternatively, the occurrence of melanic colourations in this area could be potentially explained under the perspective of the thermal efficiency hypothesis for ectotherms (Clusella-Trullas, 2008), which predicts black individuals to be favoured in terms of thermoregulation compared with brightly coloured ones. Nevertheless, given that neither annual mean temperature nor temperature seasonality were correlated with the occurrence of melanic phenotypes in Sardinia, we hypothesize that such phenotypes are not favoured by specific climatic conditions and that their distribution in the area is the outcome of a past founder effect that has randomly fixed the occurrence of these two different patterns in a restricted locality (Kolbe et al 2012). From this point of view, the lack of any correlation between habitat variables and phenotype (apart from the marginal effect of wooded areas that should be investigated more in depth through field surveys) suggests that the two phenotypes undergo comparable environmental selective pressures and that, therefore, are not selected differently (Esquerré and Keogh, 2016), keeping phenotypes’ relative frequencies stable in the population. On the other hand, the scarcity of melanic phenotypes across the mainland distribution in this group could be ascribed to random mutations across populations that randomly generate melanic individuals, rather than to intrinsic genetic variability of these populations (Eales et al 2008).
The case of the eastern lineage instead is to be considered differently, indeed in this case the occurrence of the wild-type phenotype is more abundant and is localized almost entirely to the western populations of this group, where it contacts the H. v. viridiflavus populations (Fig. 1). In this case, the output of the climatic model for the probability to observe melanic phenotypes is consistent with the geographic model (Tab. 3). Hence, we hypothesize that the effect of mean temperature and seasonality is to be interpreted as a proxy of the geographical distribution of the phenotypes. However, concerning medium-large sized reptiles, the thermal hypothesis for ectotherms, which postulates that melanic individuals are favoured in terms of thermoregulation, fitness and growth rate in colder environments compared to normally coloured ones (Andrén and Nilson, 1981; Luiselli, 1995), is often considered a potential explanation for the occurrence of melanic phenotypes. Nevertheless, in our case this hypothesis does not support the distribution of phenotypes we observed, because the probability to observe melanic snakes in H. v. carbonarius is higher in warmer areas (e.g., Southern Italy; Pinna, 2017) and lower in inland regions where temperature seasonality is more marked, contrasting the core assumption of this hypothesis (Clusella-Trullas et al 2007; Clusella-Trullas et al 2008).
Finally, the significant and positive effect of the altitude on the expression of melanism in the western lineage, albeit weak, is consistent with both the thermal hypothesis and the ‘protection against UV radiation’ hypothesis as well. This hypothesis states that melanin protects effectively from incoming UV radiation by absorbing it (Cope et al 2001), hence at higher altitudes, where UV radiation is more intense (Blumthaler, et al 1997), reptiles should be selected to become darker. However, evidence to support robustly such hypothesis is still partly lacking, apart from few restricted cases such as for Psammodromus algirus (Reguera et al 2014); if confirmed, our investigation could be regarded as a second case in which this hypothesis is supported by data.
In summary, we believe that the evidence collected from this study points toward one direction: the marked differences in body colouration between the two groups are neither driven by specific habitat features, nor by climate on its own, but rather by the evolutionary history of the species, which is tightly linked to the geographic distribution of the two groups. From this point of view, climate acts as a proxy of the geographical regions where the species occurs. More in detail, the occurrence of the two phenotypes in the two lineages, which are separated by the Apennines, could be ascribed to past refugia during ice ages (Mezzasalma et al 2015), which have fixed the two phenotypes in different areas via bottleneck events. Eventually, subsequent warmer periods could have favoured the spreading of these two groups in the Italian territory, in France and in the main islands too, which is the distributional pattern we can observe at present day.
Interestingly, the occurrence of wild-type phenotypes in the eastern lineage populations in Northern Italy and along the Apennines is complicated to address; however, recently it has been suggested that these two groups might undergo a genetic admixture event along a putative contact zone running along the Apennines and in the Po plain in Lombardy and Piedmont (Senczuk et al 2020). In this scenario, concerning the current distribution of phenotypes across the transect we identified (Fig. 5), the transition line from the wild-type to the melanic phenotype does not match the mitochondrial border between the two subspecies. Indeed, this line is shifted eastwards, suggesting that the distribution of phenotypes, determined by nuclear genetic variability (Hánová et al 2021), does not match the mitochondrial lineages’ one and, specifically, that the eastern lineage populations tend to be phenotypically more variable than western ones. These considerations lead us to hypothesize that a complex genetic introgression process could explain thoroughly what was observed. Moreover, in accordance to our finding and to what we hypothesize for the whip snake, in the past years the Common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis) populations from the same geographic area, were expected to undergo asymmetric introgression event mediated by morphological traits, resulting in discrepancies in phenotypes (While et al 2015). Indeed, recent evidence has pointed out that gene flow between P. muralis lineages in this region is marked and asymmetrical and determines the occurrence of mismatching phenotypes we observe in the living populations (Yang et al 2018; Yang et al 2020), similarly to what we hypothesize for H. viridiflavus. The occurrence in two separate squamate species of such complex interactions between lineages after a secondary contact in the same geographic area suggests that the Italian peninsula can be of great interest to assess the microevolutionary processes involving reptiles, and thus that such genetic event could be part of a broader scenario that is not restricted to whip snakes only.
Additional evidence about genetic introgression events in this region would remark that the Italian peninsula is an excellent model to investigate evolutionary processes at a wide scale and across time.