This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate the influence of age on long-term mortality and net survival benefit of RT for early-stage FL. Although the cumulative incidence and pattern of LRD and non-LRD varied in an age-dependent manner, RT was associated with increased benefits of OS and RS over time. The 10-year OS and RS rates of 77.2% and 96.1% and SMR of 1.77 for RT were significantly better than CT, observation, or other/unknown treatments. RT versus non-RT was associated with better RS and SMR, regardless of age. The findings highlight the important role of RT in early-stage FL patients.
We found a linear pattern of increased mortality risk without an apparent age cutoff demarcating an OS difference in early-stage patients. The patterns and incidences of LRD and background mortality were not the same in all age-groups; patients over 60 years were at a higher risk of dying of other diseases than FL beyond 5 years of diagnosis. RT was associated with significantly better long-term OS and RS than CT, observation, or other/unknown treatments did, with an absolute gain of ~ 10% in 10-year OS and RS rates. In previous studies, the reported OS rates with RT were favorable at 5 years (85–97%), but decreased to 60–80% at 10 years.5–15 As expected, we observed a persistent decrease in OS rates over time regardless of treatment. The most interesting and somewhat unexpected result of our analysis is that the RS rate of patients with RT remained constant (as high as ~ 95%) over 10 years, whereas patients with CT, observation, or other/unknown treatments had initially lower, continuously decreased RS rates. Given the 10-year RS rate of 96.1% and SMR of 1.77, the life expectancy of early-stage patients receiving RT was favorable. The constantly high RS rates over 10 years support the idea that most patients can be cured with RT and they dispel the notion that early-stage FL is incurable.
We confirmed, for the first time, that patients’ age, as a continuous variable, was an independent prognostic factor, but this might not be a contraindication for RT. RT versus non-RT was associated with better OS/RS and lower SMR in all age groups, after balancing treatment selection bias and adjusting for covariates. The beneficial effect of RT among patients of almost all ages indicates there is no apparent cutoff age to guide RT. As low RT dose of 24 Gy is well tolerated,32–34 with only a 0.7% incidence of acute grade 3 to 4 toxicities at week 12,34 the choice of curative RT for older patients still depends on individual comorbid risk factors, without considering older age as a risk factor. The evidence of long-term RS benefit of RT vs. non-RT approaches across the age spectrum should be communicated to the patient at each individual treatment decision.
Multiple studies with large sample sizes (n > 100) have demonstrated that RT provides excellent locoregional control (~ 95%) and long-term OS in early-stage FL.5–12 Earlier comparative studies from the SEER (1973–2004) and National Cancer Data Base (1998–2012) have confirmed superior 10-year OS or DSS for RT than for CT or observation.34, 35 Despite this observation, only 27.0% of patients in the present study received initial RT. The decreased use of RT was simultaneously accompanied by the increased use of observation after the publication of the National LymphoCare Study (NLCS) in 2009 and 2012.3, 18 In addition, other studies reported satisfactory outcomes with CT, observation, immunotherapy, and immunochemotherapy. However, these studies were limited by their small sample size (n < 100),18–22, 36 short follow-up time (< 5 years),18, 21, 36 or lack of a comparative arm.22 Given the median survival time of ~ 10 years and high risk of non-LRD beyond 5 years in elderly patients, studies need to have a large sample size with an adequate number of patients at risk at 10 years (e.g., n > 200 in each treatment in this study), and long follow-ups to be able to show statistically significant survival differences between treatments. Previous studies with a small number of patients and few events have not been able to effectively analyze the value of non-RT approaches.18–22, 36 Moreover, we found the OS rates in early-stage patients decreased over time regardless of treatment, however, the OS differences persistently widened between RT and non-RT approaches over 10 years. Interestingly, RS rates remained as high as ~ 95% for RT over 10 years, but RS rates for other treatments continuously decreased. This time-dependent effect on OS and RS benefits of RT vs non-RT indicates the need for long follow-ups to define the greater survival difference between treatments. The 5-year survival as the primary benchmark of treatment success does not adequately reflect the continuously increasing risk of mortality experienced throughout the lifespan in indolent FL; and thereby any treatment strategies resulted in a similarly favorable 5-year OS.18–22
This study has strengths. The large number of patients allowed us to effectively compare the long-term survival difference between treatments and evaluate RT benefit in early-stage FL. The RS and SMR benefits of RT represent valid endpoints for evaluating how an indolent FL affects life expectancy, and it is in some ways better than OS and DSS endpoints for quantitative evaluation of RT curability, particularly for older patients at higher competing risk of other deaths. Moreover, the finding of a time-dependent survival benefit of RT, regardless of age, is unique in early-stage FL.
This study also has several limitations. First, information on immunotherapy was not available. A randomized trial reported a significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS) but not OS, for a combination of CT or immunochemotherapy with standard RT.23 Adding immunotherapy to RT may provide a unique combination for first-line therapy in early-stage FL.23, 37, 38 Another phase 3 trial comparing RT and RT with concurrent and maintenance rituximab is ongoing, with an appropriate primary endpoint of 10-year PFS (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01473628). Second, as FL staging varied during study periods, the treatment efficacy and prognosis might change accordingly. Because of improved selection and more accurate RT planning,12, 18, 39 incorporation of positron emission tomography (PET) staging into RT might have improved long-term outcomes.12 Third, other unknown confounders, such as performance status and comorbidities, that might affect treatment bias and outcomes in comparisons between treatments were not collected, and hence, not accounted for in the analysis. We believe that further prospective study is needed to validate the findings of this SEER data analysis and explore the incorporation of RT with effective systemic therapy.
In summary, clinicians should be aware of the role of RT in maintaining higher long-term OS and RS and lower SMR regardless of age. We still consider RT to be a standard of care for early-stage FL in the modern era.