The Unemployment – Inflation Dynamics: the role of Entrepreneurship Development in Nigeria.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1820633/v1

The study empirically discussed Unemployment – Inflation Dynamics: as it impacts Entrepreneurship Development in Nigeria spanning the period of 1990 -2021.The technique of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to study the dependent variable of Private Sector Productive Capacity Index (PSPC) in Nigeria, proxy of Entrepreneurship Development, and the explanatory variables of Inflation rate (INFR);Commercial Bank Credit to Small Scale Enterprises as percent of total Credit to Private Sector (CBCER);Unemployment rate (UNEMPR);and Real Interest rate (RINTR). The findings revealed among others; a statistically significant positive relationship exist between UNEMPR and PSPC in Nigeria. As a result, non-inclusive and segregated approaches of institutions to government entrepreneurship development programmes especially on youth employment coupled with, institutional based constraints including property rights and justice system could be a cog on the wheel. RINTR resulted in a positively insignificant relation with PSPC yielding non-conformity to theoretical expectation owing to structural and financial inflexibility to enterprise development in Nigeria. Whereas, INFR conformed to expectation but statistically inadequate to expand the course of PSPC in Nigeria during the review period. However, policy recommendations based on research findings suggest proactive and practical steps be followed to adjust mundane policy frameworks and strict implementation to ensure financial inclusion to start – ups businesses and private sector to a large extent.

Macroeconomics

Entrepreneurship

Inflation

Unemployment

and Innovation

The subject matter under discourse seeks to shed light on the force of interaction between unemployment rate and the changes in inflation in Nigeria during the review period. Following the phenomenal upward growth path of both unemployment and inflation, scholars and industry experts have raise questions on whether a trade-off did in actuality exist between the twin evils of macroeconomics Orji (2016), Nenbee and Orji (2021). And, solutions to the unemployment – inflation remained less investigated in extant cases, creating a policy gap to public and private sector growth. In the light of this challenge, emanates questions on whether entrepreneurship development could dampen the unemployment rates?

Entrepreneurship entails creatively conceived efforts that result in valuable new ideas, products method or process. According to Kahan (2013), value creation is the heart and soul of business, innovation, and entrepreneurship design, with a focus on the roles of design in value creation, value ideation, and value delivery.The motives behind entrepreneurial spirit remained the sincere desire for independence; the opportunity for achievement; the need to avoid unemployment; and the drive to meet personal, emotional, psychological and financial needs, Opuala - Charles (2021).

Integrated design thinking is one of the ways an entrepreneur makes money. The capacity of entrepreneurs to come up with innovative ideas for products, services, systems, or processes and turn them into successful enterprises could have a big impact on job creation. Essentially, the person who starts a business, especially a commercial one, typically at a financial risk, which entails the formation of production components (resources) that are committed today in the hope of a future profit is attributed to an entrepreneur. Murphy (1989) characterized it as one who builds productive economic capacity and willing to bear risk; introducing new materials and methods to fashion out goods and services. Conceptually, the creation and innovative responses to the environment and an ability to recognize, initiate and exploit an economic opportunity is phenomenal to entrepreneurial spirit.

Further analysis in the work of Baker and Nelson, (2005) revealed that intention for reward assumes the driving force to the discovery of opportunity at the initial stage of venture formulation, which quickens the entrepreneur to leverage on that opportunity with the available resources, and later develop the opportunity into entrepreneurial competence. The entrepreneur may seek external financing and develop dynamic capabilities during the second stage of venture monetization. The dynamic capabilities depicted in the business model reconfigure entrepreneurial competence in order to sustain value creation and appropriate entrepreneurial reward. In a broad sense, entrepreneurship, as a resurgent catalyst of economic change, exerts significant influences on productive factors through the mobilization of capital and labor resources. Knight (1978) had it that entrepreneurs are the movers of factors of production, and that without the entrepreneurs; factors such as land, labour, and capital cannot transform themselves into economic value of products and services. Indeed, entrepreneurs bear risk and uncertainty which happened to be a subset of financial investment. Jhingan (2010) clarified financial investment that deals basically on stock market instruments including, shares, bonds, and securities from real investments which adds to capital stock. Investment can also be referred to as the cost of capital borne to acquire new assets or refurbish existing real capital. This set of activities could result from changes in capital stock including purchase of factory or machine. It follows that the quest for expansion of capital comes at a cost. Apparently, changes in real interest rate significantly impact on willingness to save or borrow for investment so as to enhance productivity. The forces that emanate from the dynamics of interest rate changes could be causative of inflation or unemployment.

Inflation is generally defined as a persistent increase in the general price level within a domestic economy. The definitive conceptualization of inflation was furthered by the scholarly view of Gbosi (2016), in which inflation adjudged bad because it reduces the purchasing power of a nation’s currency. Hence, its effects are broad based as it ranks top of the political and policy- makers, agenda, Mayer (2010).The regular pattern of commodity price changes of urban baskets of foods on average, as well as cost of energy (headline inflation) presents a high swing across critical sectors of Nigerian economy. Whereas, the core inflation remain at its relatively stable trend line. Evidence from data suggests that in Nigeria, the quarter inflation rate varies considerably across sectors of Nigerian economy. The consumer price index stood at 15.60 per cent in Q1, 2022 from the previous year’s rate of 16.47 per cent recorded in the Q1, 2021; providing a marginal growth rate of 0.87 per cent (NBS, 2022).However, unemployment trend in Nigeria has maintained an increasing trajectory from 27.1 per cent in Q2, 2020 to 33.3 per cent in Q1, 2022 by implication a change in 6.2 per cent represent a job losses and waste of man-hour resource which could effectively be utilized to advance productivity margin. Other than the high job losses resulted from novel Covid-19 scourge impact on economic sectors, rendering umpteen labour force unemployed of about 23.19 million Nigeria in the Q4,2020 (NBS,2021). The inflation and unemployment pose itself as a twin devils to socio- economic progress of nations not structurally immune with perfect automatic stabilizer. Structural changes shift patterns in demand for the products of various industries, and influences other than inadequate demand, including faster pace at which technology evolves, displacing workers not abreast to knowledge gap or had not build enough capacity to wedge job losses. More so, inflation furthered the deplorable livelihood of economic workforce by washing away the nominal income level, leaving the real value of a consumer disposable income as well as investments returns in a bad shape. The Nigerian case of inflation and unemployment dynamics is such that the policy efforts of government conducted through monetary policy mechanism as well as fiscal approach has not yielded the desired result. This impedes the chances of entrepreneurial survival in Nigeria. Besides, the unfriendly economic environment whose high taste for foreign made goods and services had adversely impacted the domestic industries more especially the infants type, the SMEs and gamut of real sector activities.

Joint survey of sectoral performances conducted in 2010 by National Bureau of Statistics alongside SMEDAN has it that, the Nigerian SME sector is strategically positioned to absorb up to 80% of jobs, increase per capita income, add value to raw material supply, increase export earnings, improve capacity utilization in key industries, and unlock economic expansion through output growth. The contributory power of SME sub sector to entrepreneurship development in Nigeria cannot be over emphasized, as it is perceived the supporting frame to any economy, as well as important contributors to employment, and export growth. SMEs in Nigeria account for 48 percent of national GDP, 96 percent of businesses, and 84 percent of employment. According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria contributed approximately 48 percent of national GDP over the last five years. With a total population of approximately 17.4 million, they account for approximately 50% of industrial jobs and nearly 90% of the manufacturing sector, according to PwC. (2021). Nigerian internal business environment constrained entrepreneurship development through inadequacy of capital funding to finance business enterprises, institutional bottlenecks to loans applications, poor state of infrastructure, basic macroeconomic volatilities. Other notable factors could be perceived as inconsistent government policies, poor knowledge on how to run a business which shown as technological deficiency due to lack of supports to research and development. It is against this back drop the study seek to investigate the dynamics of unemployment – inflation interactions and the role of entrepreneurship development in Nigeria.

The Structure of the Empirical Study

This article is structured to follow a standard format for scientific research; by arranging an idea under a particular title, and subsumed in a passage. The pattern flows from: (1) Introduction (2) Nigerian Entrepreneurship Development Outlook (3) The Hurdles of Entrepreneurship Development and Government Policies in Nigeria (4) Unemployment in our Neighbourhood: Are We Safe? (5) Inflation: friend or enemy in Nigeria? (6) The Theoretical Review (7) The Empirical Review (8) Material and Method (9) Results and Discussion (10) Recommendations and Policy Implications.

According to the global entrepreneurship monitor (GEM)standard, Nigerian entrepreneurship development is far below average, based on some selected parameters such as: financing for entrepreneurship; government support and policies; taxes and bureaucracy; governmental programs; basic school entrepreneurship education and training; post school entrepreneurship and training; research and development transfer; commercial and professional infrastructure. However, the outlook for Nigeria’s enterprise supports during the review period showed 2.3 per cent funding for entrepreneurs, while other parameters remained below 2.5 per cent, except post school training which stood at 2.95 per cent in 2011. The internal market forces peaked at 3.8 per cent in 2012, being the highest parameter that received more attention in Nigeria for the period under review. See Fig 2.1:

Legitimate concerns have been expressed over the erratic growth of entrepreneurship in Nigeria, and many human as well as capital resources are devoted to improve entrepreneurship development in Nigeria. Yet, Nigerian entrepreneurs are confronted with numerous difficulties.

3.1 Capital Funding Constraint: One of the main reasons why entrepreneurship in Nigeria has remained stagnant for so long may be the difficulty in obtaining start-up funding. Many startups fail due to a lack of funding. As a result, many excellent ideas were unable to be realized. Inadequate potential or innovation, as well as the entrepreneur's doubt and fear of promoting the business, can both result in a lack of funding. A new entrepreneur wants the business up and running, whereas a small group of financial investors is unwilling to put their money into an untested idea. Investors do not want to put their money at risk, so an entrepreneur’s ability to grow and create jobs is essential defeated by lack of funding.

3.2 The Issues of Property Rights:

The provision of land laws in Nigeria as it applies to States of Nigerian federation varied across time and space. The Land Use Act, 2004 remained the existing law on property rights, given strong reference to Sec 1, which provides: all lands comprised in the territory of each state in the Federation are vested in the Governor of that State and such land shall be held in trust and administered for the use and common benefit of all Nigerian in accordance with the provisions of the Act. The pursuant of this said Act was meant to make provisions of land and immovable facilities for commercial, agricultural and residential purposes mainly for enterprise development in Nigeria. But, the opposite effect applies wherein, erstwhile Gombe State governor- Yahaya Mohammed revoked 1,292 land titles allegedly misallocated to individuals in Gombe urban city. The combined issues of Stamp Duty Act, 2004 and impractical aspects some enabling Act have had practical implications on growth of enterprise development in Nigeria. For instance, the Stamp Duty Act imposes a strict short time line of 30 days for payment of stamp duties on land transaction instruments including deed of assignment, leases, or mortgages. Whereas, CAMA Cap 2020, Sec (191) provides that an enterprise may finance its venture through borrowing with a property, mortgage, or any other property holdings for any debt obligation of the enterprise.

However, the encroaching case if intellectual property abuse and duplication of entrepreneurship novel idea without proper compensation are other burning issues militating against enterprise development in Nigeria.

3.3 Protective Rule of Law:

The concept of rule of law are closely associated with security of property rights, regulatory quality and government effectiveness. Rule of law describes the extent to which citizens repose trust in the enabling rules of the society including, the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts as well as security architecture to curb violence. Security of property rights captures the extent to which individuals have secure rights to property, including the fruits of their labour. Also, rule of law could be approached from government effectiveness which represents the quality of public and civil services and the degree of their independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies. Regulatory quality is defined as the government's ability to develop and implement sound policies and regulations that allow and promote private-sector development. Property rights protection and the rule of law are two of any society's most fundamental economic institutions. These two subcomponents of legal structure are critical to Nigeria's speedy justice system. The inflow of foreign investment funds could alleviate the entrepreneurial constraints associated with assessing domestic funding. Foreign investors will be willing to invest in Nigeria's knowledge sector if the stockpile of unresolved cases involving corporate investors and financial crimes is retired expeditiously and fairly. As a result, entrepreneurship growth and export markets for our ingenuity are boosted. A study conducted by Niklas et al ( 2019) on entrepreneurship and rule of law in European Union shows that the countries with the best judicial systems and the highest quality of government such as the Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, and Benelux countries, followed by Germany and France have the highest entrepreneurship funding supports especially from foreign investors, and ranked 4 – 7 in global scale (GEI in NIC,2016). It follows that, Nigerian government needs do away with delay in criminal justice dispensation, human rights abuses and police brutality. Rather, imbibe sound cultural practices of quality contract enforcements, property rights and ensure quality of public institution especially those under executive and judiciary arms of government.

3.4 Loan Application Rigidity:

Aside from the challenge of insufficient initial capital funding, the second challenge that entrepreneurs face is difficulty obtaining loans from financial institutions. Many potential Nigerian entrepreneurs face numerous challenges when it comes to gaining access to loan facilities. When Nigerian entrepreneurs approach a bank to obtain a loan to fund their business, they quickly discover that obtaining a loan is not as simple as it appears. According to empirical findings, banks and other financial institutions are hesitant to lend money to entrepreneurs who do not have prior business experience, a good credit history, or collaterized accounts with them. Banks, on the other hand, are more willing to lend to people who already own a small business. Also, the loan disbursement standards requirements, as well as the high lending interest rate, impede the success of entrepreneurship borrowing opportunity. To summarize, high borrowing rates are typically a deterrent to Nigerian entrepreneurs.

3.5 Gross Infrastructural Decay:

On average, entrepreneurs face infrastructure challenges, particularly those in the agricultural and industrial sub-sectors. Many businesses have died as a result of Nigeria's erratic power supply, poor transportation system, and systemic failure in the maintenance of public sector social overheads. As a result, entrepreneurs are turning to alternative power sources that are within their means, resulting in the use of foreign-made power generators to run their businesses at a high cost of diesel and premium motor spirit. Whereas Nigeria is endowed with large hydro, thermal, and solar resources, its potential to generate power from existing plants stood at 12,522MW, but it was unable to dispatch about 4,000 MW, implying that out of the 24 hours in a day, households and industries received only 6.8 hours of electricity(USAID, 2019). Also, the power failure significantly constrain citizen and businesses, resulting to annual economic losses estimated at $ 26.2 billion (WB, 2021).The effect of infrastructure collapse in Nigeria have led enterprises to relocate their business headquarters abroad and to neighboring nations.

3.6 Socio - Economic Instability: political crises across the country that is causative of unprecedented security lapses that resulted in religious and ethno-communal clashes (e.g., farmer- header crisis, Boko Haram insurgency, Eastern Security Network revolt). All of the socioeconomic issues and political unrest do not aid in the establishment of profitable enterprise. Furthermore, any form of economic or political uncertainty is fatal to businesses development in Nigeria.

3.7 Government Policy Summersault: Nigerian government policies suffer from a lack of consistency. In general, past policies were insufficient to establish the required conditions for corporate development in Nigeria though; modifications are on to amend the policies to suit entrepreneurship development. Nigeria’s national development policy, in retrospect, had swing from national economic empowerment and development strategy (NEEDS) as complemented by their State level (SEEDS) and local government (LEEDS) cadre implementation levels, which was directed at private sector to function as an engine of economic growth transcending to wealth creation, employment generation, and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, require greater independence and flexibility in order to effectively manage their businesses, given that non-farm micro, small, and medium enterprises account for more than 25% of total employment and 20% of Nigeria's GDP (SMEDAN, 2021). The government policy inconsistencies have had adverse impact on commercializing the output of entrepreneur to the rest of the world; limiting their global rating. Also, the policy fall out has distorted the expected entrepreneurship contribution to economic growth in Nigeria. This manifest itself in the difficulties that may impede the speed of entrepreneurial growth including, delayed business registration procedures with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), entrepreneurs normally have to wait 30 days or thereabout to receive certificate of incorporation, billed for at most 14 working days. It becomes even more difficult when it comes to registering with the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) or obtaining funds from the Bank of Industry (BOI).Other issues include multiple taxation; while businessmen are responsible for funding the government by paying taxes, entrepreneurs in Nigeria are subjected to multiple taxation, which has a negative impact on their businesses. While Nigeria's Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) has approved only 39 levies, local governments impose over 500 different taxes, the majority of which are duplicated and illegal.

3.8 Business Knowledge Gap: A firm's failure is sometimes due to the entrepreneur's lack of experience and knowledge of how to be a successful businessman, rather than government politics, economic obstacles, or a lack of funds. While some people can take entrepreneurship classes, many others start their own businesses without the necessary entrepreneurial training and guidance. These individuals typically lack expertise, effective managerial skills, and the ability to build capacity in order to undertake a creative entrepreneurial venture. As a result, learning how to obtain relevant and adequate management and marketing information, as well as adequate problem-solving skills and financial market awareness through trend analysis, is critical.

3.9a Entrepreneurship Programmes adopted by Nigerian Government

The Nigerian government has previously adopted some of these programs to encourage the development of entrepreneurship through its agencies such as the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency (SMEDAN), N-Power, Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), and You-Win. These programs were designed to promote entrepreneurial activities by facilitating access to funds and other resources required by MSMEs.

3.9b SME Digital Academy:

The SME Digital Academy is a public-private partnership initiative led by the NCC, SMEDAN, and Sapphital Learning Limited, a leading digital learning platform, with the goal of providing micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) owners with digital skills to help them grow their businesses. The partnership also aims to provide information and communications technology (ICT) support to various sectors in the country, as well as to equip entrepreneurs and start-ups with the digital skills needed to navigate the increasingly digitized world. The Digital Academy was established in November 2020 as an avenue to support SME development during the Covid-19 lockdown, as well as to provide the required leverage for ICT development across digital space for entrepreneurs and start-ups across the federation's 36 states of Nigeria.

3.9c DBN Entrepreneurship Training: The Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) undertook to build the capacity of Nigerian MSME to enable them to access credit, in addition to providing funding and risk-sharing facilities to MSMEs and Small Corporates through participating financial institutions. The proposed strategy aimed to ensure DBN builds a quality and sustainable capacity building program that meets specific objectives such as improving MSMEs' capacity for efficient fund utilization, trade, investments, and market access, as well as ensuring MSMEs are well equipped with skills and competencies to defend sound and viable business proposals. In order to achieve this goal, partnerships were formed with Google, Enterprise Development Center, Pan Atlantic University, and Wilder Perspective Limited, as well as (1000) one thousand entrepreneurs in Lagos and Abuja, and about (1000) one thousand entrepreneurs in Lagos and Abuja out of (200) two hundred were selected on need base assessment and fewer than the selected entrepreneurs were shortlisted MSMES for pitching and funding (DBN, 2021).

3.9d The N-Power Programme: This is built to address the issue of youth unemployment and help increase social development across thirty states of Nigeria. The Program is designed to target Nigerians between the ages of 18 and 35 years old; preparing the young Nigerians for a modern, globalized economy by helping equip youths with skills and certifications for emerging global markets and to acquire and develop life-long skills for becoming change makers in their communities. The skill set is designed for the development of efficient farming techniques and practices to maximize productivity in the agricultural sector as well as technological and institutional development to farming communities in rural areas of Nigeria.

3.9e Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP): Through Bank of Industry, the Federal Government of Nigeria sought to provide financial inclusion and access to microcredit for Nigerians at the bottom of the economic pyramid. The programme aimed to provide beneficiaries with easily accessible capital to help them grow their businesses, as well as to integrate these beneficiaries into the formal financial system through bank accounts, mobile wallets, and formal identities. The agreement called for 98,000 people to be enrolled. As a result, qualified entrepreneurs stand to benefit from small no-interest loans ranging from N50, 000 to N300, 000 that are repayable in nine (9) months (BOI, 2021).

3.9f The Youth Enterprise With Innovation in Nigeria (You -WiN): The program is a collaboration between Nigeria's Ministries of Finance, Communication Technology, and Youth Development, with funding from the Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank. The programme's goal is to encourage innovation and job creation by establishing new businesses and expanding existing ones. The competition drew nearly 24,000 applicants. Some of the winners were chosen at random from a pool of semi-finalists, with US$36 million in randomly allocated grant funding providing each winner with an average of US$50000 (WB, 2016).

The unemployment is gradually becoming a household name to Nigerian, on average, due to its ravaging effect on household consumption spending, and tax impacts it poses on the revenue streams Nigerian government. With an increasing population of over 215 million persons living in Nigeria today ( NPC, Worldometer, 2022), consumption spending as percentage of GDP declined to 77.5 per cent in 2017 from 78.6 per cent in 2015; giving a consumption gap of 1.10 per cent during the period under review. Whereas, tax- to- GDP ratio decreased by about 0.3 percent, on average, from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 6.0 percent in 2019. Previous data revealed an uptick of about 9.3 per cent in 2010 to 10.01 per cent in 2011, a declining trend occurred shortly afterwards bring a shift in revenue downwards to 4.09 percent in 2016 (OECD, 2021). With this end in view, unemployment rate in Nigeria significantly approximates at 33.3 per cent in Q1, 2022; and a forecast of 40 percent by 2024 (Trading Economics, 2022).Moreover, The prevalent situation where persons of certain age bracket,say,14–64 years old of age who are willing and actively seeking for job could not find one within the reference period could be referred to as state of unemployment .That to say, whenever an active labour force offered labour services for estimated period lesser than at least 32 hours per week; such person(s) could be said to be unemployed. However, youth unemployment grows exponentially with the rising population growth rate of 2.5 per cent in 2020 (WDI knoema, 2020).

Evidence from data revealed that, from 2010 to 2020, unemployment rates as defined by the National Bureau of Statistics consistently increased for young people as 7 per cent worked for 0–19 hours/ week in 2010.The trend increases along to 14 per cent in 2013 and climaxed to 30 per cent in 2018.Wheras, the youth engaged in full time jobs witness a cyclical declined trend line, with 71 per cent worked for 40 + hour/ week in 2010. The trend nosedived to 63 per cent and ebbs at 44 per cent in 2018. Youth unemployment (15–34 years old) stood at 35% in 2020 (Q2). Another 28% of young people in the labor force were considered underemployed (working 20–39 hours per week), while 37% worked full time (40 or more hours per week) NBS (2021).

It is remarkably, worthy of mention, that inflation has been identified as one of the Nigeria’s contemporary macro-economic problems Gbosi(2016).Persistence changes in domestic prices of goods and services significantly impact the value of real income; shifting downward consumption curve of fixed income earners in Nigeria . To a long term investor, inflation is a no friend as the value of returns in real terms declines whereas, a short term investor could benefit from increased value of returns due to increase in prices. According to a review of available data, prices of major agricultural export commodities increased further in May 2021. The increase was caused by increased global demand, protracted supply constraints, and production shortfalls in some food commodities. The all-commodities price index stood at 99.88 index points in May 2021, representing a 2.6% increase over the previous month's reading of 97.32. The overall index's price increase during the review month was largely due to significant increases in cotton, soya beans, and rubber prices of 6.5, 6.0, and 5.5 percent, respectively(CBN, 2021).This resultant effect of surge in Nigerian domestic agricultural export market deterred the demand for Naira in exchange of US Dollar for domestically produce agro based products. In addition, the external economic condition of crude oil price significantly dampen the foreign exchange reserve in Nigeria. Furthermore, the rising domestic commodity prices triggered high demand for U.S dollar as vehicle currency for imports abroad.

Graphical illustration of inflation induced exchange rate of Nigerian Naira-U.S Dollar

Table 4.1

The theory of entrepreneurial value creation theory describes the entrepreneurial experience in sufficient detail, from entrepreneurial intention and the discovery of entrepreneurial opportunity to the development of entrepreneurial competence and the appropriation of entrepreneurial reward (Mishra and Zachary, 2014). Entrepreneurship is more than just starting a new business; it is a value creation and appropriation process led by entrepreneurs in an uncertain environment. As a result, we will go over fundamental theories related to the topic of our discussion. The Schumpeter’s Theory of Innovation

Schumpeter stipulated that the role of the entrepreneur in the capitalist economy cannot be ignored. The entrepreneur is the major contributor of change which is the makeup of a capitalist society. That is, that the entrepreneur is seen as a change agent because he introduces change which is the fundamental fact of the capitalist society Mathew (2014). He argues that the upper class depends on the entrepreneur for their daily living. And that a situation where the role of entrepreneur is ignored or eliminated will lead to that society been stagnant. The strength to innovate is the final action in entrepreneurial development given that innovation in the words of Schumpeter, “is application of new things onto practical use “. It follows that, the core function of an entrepreneurial spirit is creation of new things- That is, invention and innovation are cardinal qualities of an entrepreneur development in any society. Entrepreneurialism dream of private kingdom is motivated by creation of new things followed by practical applications, this action point is preceded by research and development which propels ideas form new technology and methods of production aimed at employment generation and ultimately economic growth.

The Cost of Capital Theory of Investment.

The theory was developed by James Duesenberry. Theorists assume that the market rate of interest represents the cost of the firm’s capital, and this capital does not change with the amount of the firm’s investment. This means that the firm has access to unlimited funds at the prevailing market rate of interest. The firm source for funds through three avenues; retained earnings, borrowing from banks and the equity issue. According to Jhingan (2010), this theory analyzed the variance in profit level with national income level; and the optimal capital stock with aggregate profit level. If the capital stock exceeds the actual, there is increase in investment and profits. This theory was criticized based on the ground that empirical evidence in the theory of investment by Meyer Kuh (1957) indicated that, of all the macroeconomic policy instruments, monetary policy is the least effective. They observed that firms take a longer view while making investment spending, whereas Duesenberry pointed out a short-run model of investment. Their analysis showed that firm basically invest in expansion of capacity during the boom period and this will not affect their overall level of investment as much as predicted by Duesenburry’s short-run model.

Entrepreneurial Value Creation Theory: This theory investigates the deep entrepreneurial process through the use of a two-stage value creation framework and an appropriate framework. Mishra and Zachary (2014) classified value creation into stages, including venture formulation, in which an entrepreneur motivated by a desire for reward seeks to start an enterprise with little or no resources. This is accomplished through a bricolage mechanism (that is, entrepreneurs create business ventures by making do with available resources and seeking financial assistance from others, such as family members, friends, or customers). The second stage of venture monetization has it that, entrepreneur may seek for external resource such as venture capital or strategic alliances to build, and a joint dynamic capabilities. However, entrepreneur is committed to grabbing opportunity with the available resources at his reach and reconfigures it. This is underscored by competence to venture in a reward yielding enterprise. The process can better understand through the diagram below:

The Philips Curve: The theory emanates from the dispute of comparing money wage growth with unemployment in United Kingdom around 1861 – 1957.The empirical study of A. W. Philips revealed among others, the inverse relationship subsisting between the rate of change in money wages and unemployment. This exposition created a leeway for further scientific study years on, and evidence was confirmed of inverse trade – off between unemployment and inflation. Increase in aggregate demand may elicit growth of real GDP and employment. At near economy’s output capacity, inflationary pressures sets by rise in labour wage demand causing inflation. Whereas, monetarist view perceived inflation as a long run phenomenon, given the adaptive expectation idea of short term trade off of inflation and unemployment, coupled with, the rational thesis, suggesting the predictability of inflation by labour which makes easy in formation of expected inflation. It follows that, aggregate demand can be impacted by interest rate that affect entrepreneur’s investment decision and ultimately employment generation.

Amawu and Ekienabor (2019) empirically conducted a survey on unemployment and the role of entrepreneurial education in Nigeria, using a Chi-square test to survey a questionnaire of sample of size of 100 respondents. The findings revealed that entrepreneurship education has a significant and positive effect on unemployment eradication in Nigeria. Thus, the need for vocational skills centres was emphasized. In a similar node, Olufemi (2020) surveyed entrepreneurship as a best option to curb unemployment amongst youth in Nigeria. Stratified random sampling strategy was used to select the sample, and respondents were drawn amongst youth between the ages of 20 and 40 years. The output of the research finding was drawn using SPSS to analyze data. The study revealed that parents and family influences young ones’ decision to start a business rather than being innate. The study perceived limitations to entrepreneurship in Nigeria as dependent on lack of access to finance and financial risks. According to Sanyal (2014), the study on 59 microfinance banks in West Bengal, Nepal showed that access to microfinance loans has a positive impact on women entrepreneurial growth thereby increasing their social capital and their ability to influence social norms. In another clime, Miriam (2021) investigated the role of microfinance services on the development of women entrepreneurship in Rivers State. The descriptive survey method and data was collected through the use of questionnaire and oral interview. Using Taro Yamane sampling technique, sample of 400 out of 370 retrieved. Findings revealed that, lack of awareness programs on availability of microfinance services and high demand for collateral facilities are some of the major deterrents of restricted access to microfinance credit facilities.

The aspect is concerned with research methodology employed to study the force of interaction between unemployment and inflation, and their impact on entrepreneurship development in Nigeria. The time series data spanning the period 1990–2021 drawn from World Bank, Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, UNCTADS and Central Bank of Nigeria shall be utilized for the analysis. In reflection of the theoretical framework of Philips curve, the relationships between unemployment, inflation, interest rate and enterprise performance shall form the structural model specification for the study.

8.1 Model Specification

The model is structured to reflect the functional relationship of entrepreneurship development and the core financial indicators in Nigeria spanning the period of 1990–2021.Therfore, the study framework follows a structural equation:

Ẏ _t = ƒ (Ň) ^{………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. (6.1)}

Entrepreneurship development = ƒ (Inflation rate, Rate of commercial bank credit to small scale enterprises (%) total credit to private sector, Unemployment rate, and Real interest rate) ..^(6.2)

Where:

Ẏ = Entrepreneurship development which is measure by (1) the rate of new startups in Nigeria (2) the rate of private business ownership in Nigeria (3) the rate of self – employed in Nigeria.

t = Time series component of the data set

Ň = The explanatory variables

Econometrics Specification of the Model

Ẏ _t = ƒ = α_i + β₁X_1t + β₂ X_2t + β₃ X_3t + β₄ X_4t + µ_t^{………………………………………………………… (6.3)}

linPSPC = α_i + β₁linInfr + β₂ linCBCEr + β₃ linUnempr + β₄ linRintr + µ_t^{……………………….(6.4)}

Where:

PSPC = Private Sector Productive Capacity Index, proxy for Entrepreneurship development

α _i = Intercept Term

lin = The natural logarithms

β ₁₋ β₄ = The model parameters

Infr = Inflation rate

CBCE = Commercial bank credit to Enterprise (rate)

Unempr = Unemployment rate

Rintr = Real interest rate

µ _t = Stochastic disturbance

Explanation of Variables and Relationships

Productive Capacity Index: there is the measure of productive resources, entrepreneurial capabilities and production linkages that generally determines a country's ability to produce goods and services that will help her grow and developed (UNCTAD,2021). It was a response action point from the institute's resolution to pursue its mythological work aimed at measuring progress in developing countries as well as identify obstacles to development of production capacities. However, the choice of private sector productive capacity index to measure entrepreneurship development in Nigeria was borne out of the fact that, private sector is said to include any self-employed persons, or any employer of labour who does not belong to the government sector.

Inflation Rate

the measure of percentage changes in domestic consumer price index over given period of time. It is theoretically expected to have inverse relations with productive capacity. β_{1 ˂} 0.

Commercial Bank Credit to Private Sector Rate (CBCER): This is a measure of Commercial Bank Loans to Small Scale Enterprises as Percentage of Total Credit extended to private sector in Nigeria. The economic a priori expectation is positively related: β_{2 ˃} 0.

Unemployment Rate

This measure the proportion of labour force who is not actively and meaningfully engaged within the reference period. It is expected to have negative relations

β _{3 ˂} 0.

The Real Interest Rate

this measures specifically policy rate which controls broad range of commercial lending in Nigeria for a period of time. It is theoretically expected to have an inverse relationship with productive capacity. β_{4 ˂} 0.

This specifically concerned with the output of estimates and diagnostic of parameters of the models in line with the study of relationships between entrepreneurial development as dependent variables and the explanatory variables of inflation, commercial credit to private sector proportion, unemployment rate and real interest rate in Nigeria for the period under study. The method of auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was employed to scientifically study the dynamics of enterprise growth in Nigeria.

Table 9.1 Descriptive Statistics

	LINPSPC	LININFR	LINCBCER	LINUNEMPR	LINRINTR
Mean	4.010139	2.644124	0.389282	2.318529	3.080070
Median	4.241884	2.542300	0.461057	2.595255	3.090165
Maximum	4.356709	4.288265	3.297317	3.505557	3.586016
Minimum	3.280911	1.686399	-2.659260	0.587787	2.442347
Std. Dev.	0.432531	0.642363	2.128581	0.911778	0.266876
Skewness	-0.797567	1.134135	-0.078268	-0.611616	-0.726850
Kurtosis	1.709895	3.731857	1.325028	1.827995	3.556686

Jarque-Bera	5.611768	7.574218	3.773380	3.826523	3.230854
Probability	0.060453	0.022661	0.151573	0.147598	0.198806

Sum	128.3245	84.61196	12.45703	74.19292	98.56223
Sum Sq. Dev.	5.799576	12.79153	140.4566	25.77149	2.207901

Observations	32	32	32	32	32

Source: Authors Computation (2022).

The mean values for individual variables are presented in Table 9.1 with PSPC of 4.01 per cent being ranked the highest while CBCER of 0.39 per cent is the lowest score on average. The entire data set skewed to the left except INFR (1.13) that is positively aligned whereas, more variables score have flat curves including PSPC (1.71), CBCER (1.32), and UNEMPR (1.83) while other exhibit peaked curves distribution. In sum, the probability of Jarque-Bera statistic computed suggests the rejection of null hypothesis of normal distribution for PSPC, CBCER,UNEMPR and RINTR at 5 per cent level of significance but do not reject same for INFR. By implication, there exist unit root in the series thereby calling for stationarity test of data series

Table 9.2 Unit - Root Test Result

Null- Hypothesis: ADF computed value has a unit root.



VARIABLES	ADF STATISTIC @ LEVEL	CRITICAL VALUES @ 5%	ADF@ 1^ST DIFFERENCE	CRITICAL VALUES @ 5%	PROB*	ORDER OF INTEGRATION (REMARK)


PSPC	-1.224163	-2.960411	-6.101608	-2.963972	0.0000	I(1)
INFR	-3.039556	-2.963972	-4.263125	-2.963972	0.0023	I(0)
CBCER	-1.028535	-2.960411	-4.761074	-2.963972	0.0006	I(1)
UNEMPR	-0.905806	-2.960411	-5.634538	-2.670170	0.0001	I(1)
RINTR	-2.409843	-2.971853	-6.752021	-2.963972	0.0000	I(1)

Note: (i) Values (*) is Mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values

Source: Author's Computation (2022).

The result of Table 9.2 revealed the unit root test of stationarity of time series are of mixed order of integration, yielding a co integrating relationship of productive capacity index proxy of entrepreneurship development and explanatory variables of our model. Hence, we proceed to conduct a co integration Bound Test in order to be assured of long run variables interaction.

Table 9.3 Bound Test Co integration Result

Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist


Test Statistic		Value		k


F-statistic		0.894335		4



Critical Value Bounds


Significance	I0 Bound		I1 Bound


10%	2.45		3.52
5%	2.86		4.01
2.5%	3.25		4.49
1%	3.74		5.06

Source: Author's Computation (2022).

The Table 8.3 result of Bound test suggest no long run relationship since, the F- statistic of 0.894335 is significantly lower than I(0) bound series. Therefore it portends that a short run specification of the ARDL model be presented.

Table 9.04 Short Run Specification of the Model (ARDL)

Dependent Variable: LINPSPC

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.*


LINPSPC(-1)	0.299188	0.130328	2.295656	0.0304
LININFR	-0.022129	0.037791	-0.585549	0.5634
LINCBCER	0.008286	0.018083	0.458221	0.6508
LINUNEMPR	0.334343	0.067446	4.957192	0.0000
LINRINTR	0.028137	0.083006	0.338978	0.7375
C	2.013803	0.503801	3.997217	0.0005


R-squared	0.943720	Mean dependent var		4.027002
Adjusted R-squared	0.932464	S.D. dependent var		0.428854
S.E. of regression	0.111449	Akaike info criterion		-1.378512
Sum squared resid	0.310523	Schwarz criterion		-1.100966
Log likelihood	27.36693	Hannan-Quinn criter.		-1.288039
F-statistic	83.84178	Durbin-Watson stat		1.473376
Prob(F-statistic)	0.000000


*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
selection.

Source: Author's Computation (2022).

Results and Discussion

The adjusted R-Square of 0.94 per cent suggest a strong explanatory power of the model: about 94 per cent of total variation in entrepreneurship development in Nigeria is jointly explained by INFR, CBCER,UNEMPR and RINTR; given a fraction 4 per cent only to influences unobserved but impact the PSPC. While the average value of changes in PSPC is 2.01 per cent, all other explanatory variables being constant implies, Nigeria's productive capacity increases by about 2.01, on average during the review period.

However, the lag value of PSPC (-1) conformed to a priori expectation and exhibit a positively statistically significant (P- value ˃ 0.05) relationship with the previous year productive growth trajectory. That represents a 0.29 increase in the future entrepreneurship productivity in Nigeria, if all thing been equal. On the similar interaction point, INFR conformed to theoretical expectation but resulted in statistically insignificant(0.56) but negatively related to PSPC. By implication, PSPC decreases by about 0.02 per cent, on average, as a result of a unit change in Inflation rate in Nigeria under the review period. Also, similar effect transpired with CBCE, as it conformed to A priori expectation but statistically insignificant (P-value ˂ 0.5) to explaining changes in PSPC. That means, PSPC increases by about 0.82 per cent, on average due to a unit increases in CBCE in Nigeria.

Moreover, UNEMP do not conform to theoretical expectation but statistically significant (0.0000) to explaining variations in PSPC; which by that finding shown, PSPC increases by about 0.33 per cent, on average, as UNEMP increase by a unit in Nigeria. Finally, RINTR do not conformed to A priori expectation as yielded positive but insignificant relations with PSPC during the review period. That shows an increase in PSPC by about 0.03 per cent, on average, due to changes in RINTR in Nigeria.

Table 9.5 Correlation Matrix Result

	LINPSPC	LININFR	LINCBCER	LINUNEMPR	LINRINTR
LINPSPC	1
LININFR	-0.46490794774	1
LINCBCER	-0.811534775045	0.3662804773	1
LINUNEMPR	0.96644343658	-0.47347841169	-0.8307729212	1
LINRINTR	-0.33625656109	0.150689994	0.209827083	-0.37096035172	1

Source: Author's Computation (2022).

The output of Table 8.5 is to solidify the absence of multi collinearity in the explanatory variables using the bound of 85 per cent Gujarati (2004).The result revealed the variables of interest are below the accepted threshold in their interaction effect except for PSPC and UNEMP that yielded 0.96 per cent. By implication, PSPC and UNEMP in Nigeria are closely related.

Table 8.1 Post Diagnostics Results

Summary of Diagnostic Test Results

Table 9.10



Test Statistic (Hypothesis are in Null Form)	Test Type	Test Statistics	Probability	Decision


Residual Normality( Residuals are normally distributed)	Jacrque- Bera	3.184389	0.203433	Accepted
Serial Correaltion( There is no Serial Correaltion)	Breush -Godfry	2.480482	0.2893	Accepted
Heteroskedasticity( There is equal variance)	Breush- Pagan-Godfrey	14.04316	0.0628	Accepted
Functional Form(Model is correctly specified)	Ramsey Reset Test	8.079403	0.0900	Accepted

Source: Author's Computation (2022)

The post estimation results in Table 4.04 indicates that the Jacque Bera probability value of 0.203433 is greater than 5percent level of significance which allowed for the acceptance of the hypothesis that the model is normally distributed. It follows that, other dimensions of measurements of model stability conforms to the statistically accepted bounds at 5 percent level of significance.

The finding and discussions in section 9.0 will form the fulcrum for recommendations of the study, given the interactions of dependent variable of entrepreneurship development proxied by Private sector productive capacity in Nigeria and exogenously determined instruments including, Inflation rate; Commercial bank lending to SMEs; Unemployment rate; and Real interest rate. The following topical issues seek to be suggested:

The Finding revealed that Unemployment rate increases in Nigeria in spite the slight growth in entrepreneurship development. That portends a need for concerted effort in policy adjustments, monitoring and implementation of government programmes targeted at entrepreneurship development in Nigeria. The institutional based programmes should be subject to an independent review to ensure mandates are delivered, and within the framework.
The policy implication of this finding suggests the possibility of doubling the unemployment rate or keeping increasing trend of the rate over a longer period when and if adequate control measures are continued to be neglected in Nigeria's entrepreneurship development and employment space.
The output of Real Interest Rate suggests that policy rate of CBN as a benchmark rate for commercial and corporate lending should be reviewed from time to time to reflect the prevalent economic conditions rather than pitching it as annual exercise. Hence, the monetary policy rights of CBN to regulate, manage and control the cost of credit and money in circulation should be properly utilized to spur Deposit Corporations and Development Banks to extend soft advances to Start - up businesses and Enterprise development in Nigeria.
By policy implication, stringent interest rate allocation as well as rigidities in commercial loan to enterprise will dampened the expected growth of entrepreneurial spirit and ultimately growth of private sectors in Nigeria.
The Inflation upsurge largely militates against the entrepreneurship development in Nigeria according to the findings of the study. It makes for expedient innovative techniques to fashion out enhanced local tools and processes to produce raw materials with forward linkage effects, so as to curb cost push inflation as well as demand demand pull and imported inflations.
Policy implication on these cannot be over emphasized, since, the gamut economic activities in Nigeria dependent largely on processes and materials (productive input) imported abroad. However, the cost of doing business especially by SMEs and private sector is relatively high and challenging. As such, entrepreneurs are disincentivize to meaningful engage requisite resource to advance productivity in a scalable proportion.

Declaration of Data Sources

The data used for the analysis were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (various issues), and World Bank development Indicator.

Declaration of Competing Interest

None

Acknowledgment

We thank the Managing Editor, and our anonymous reviewer team for their time and cooperation.

Funding

The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2819-1665

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Table 4.1 is in the supplementary files section.

The Unemployment – Inflation Dynamics: the role of Entrepreneurship Development in Nigeria.

Status:

Version 1

Abstract

Figures

1. Introduction

2. Nigerian Entrepreneurship Development Outlook

3. The Hurdles of Entrepreneurship Development and Government Policies in Nigeria.

4. Unemployment in our Neighborhood: Are we safe?

5. Inflation: Friend Or Enemy In Nigeria?

6. Theoretical Review

7. Empirical Review

8. Material And Method

8.1 Model Specification

9. Results And Discussion

10. Recommendations And Policy Implications

Declarations

References

Tables

Supplementary Files

Status:

Version 1