Baseline characteristics
A total of 2,142 female patients aged ≤ 40 who were diagnosed with anatomical stage I-III in the West China hospital, Sichuan University were enrolled. Specifically, we collected data from 13,399 females with primary invasive BC, 10,778 women over 40 years old were excluded, 6 patients were excluded for recurrent disease, 257 cases were deleted for missing HR information, 27 cases were eliminated for missing clinical stage information, and 135 cases were eliminated for having a follow-up period less than 0.5 months. Additionally, 9 patients were also excluded due to being diagnosed before January 2000 and another 45 patients were deleted for having stage IV disease (Fig. 1). The median follow-up period was 7.1 years. Common characteristics of the whole cohort are listed in Table 1.
To explore the change of BC baseline characteristics in young women from 2000 to 2017, we analyzed the age of patients at diagnosis, HR status, HER2 status, anatomic stage, and surgery pattern according to diagnosis year. During the three time periods before 2008, from 2008 to 2012, and since 2013, the number of women younger than 30 when diagnosed with early breast cancer (EBC) has been increasing. The proportion of women aged 30–35 diagnosed with EBC was slightly decreased, while this percentage fluctuated in the three phases in women equal to or older than 35 years. In all of the three time phases, the percentage of the HER2 negative subtype was the highest, while the percentage of the HER2 positive subtype continuously rose from 2000 to 2017. More patients were diagnosed with HR-positive tumors than HR-negative tumors since 2013 (36.6% vs. 28.0%), while a lower proportion of women were diagnosed with HR-positive BC than HR-negative BC between 2008 and 2012 (37.4% vs. 46.1%, P < 0.001). Interestingly, the proportion of clinical stage I-II increased from 2000 to 2017, and fewer patients were diagnosed with stage III disease. Regrettably, women with clinical stage 0 disease significantly decreased overall. Further, the number of breast conserving surgeries was remarkably increased in the last ten years and the percentage of radical/extensive radical surgeries decreased (Fig. 2). In the whole cohort, most women suffered from HR-positive disease in the three diagnosis time periods.
Intergroup differences in clinicopathological traits between HR-positive and HR-negative breast cancer
To explore the role of HR in young BC patients, we first analyzed intergroup differences in clinical and pathological characteristics between the HR-positive and HR-negative groups. Patients were divided into an HR-positive group (N = 1,606) and an HR-negative group (N = 536) based on HR expression status. The median age of both groups was 37 years old (P = 0.99). In addition, 30.5% patients suffered pT1 and 5.1% had pT4 disease in the HR-positive group, while only 27.6% patients suffered pT1 and 3.5% had pT4 stage tumors in the HR-negative group (P < 0.001). Additionally, there were fewer patients with pT3 disease in the HR-positive group than the HR-negative group (5.5% vs. 8.4%, P < 0.001). There were more patients without axillary lymph node metastasis in the HR-negative group than in the HR-positive group (49.4% vs. 46.2%, P < 0.001). The proportion of pN2 disease in the HR-positive group was 12.2%, and in the HR-negative group it was 9.5%. Furthermore, 68.6% of HR-positive patients suffered clinical stage II-III disease and in the HR-negative group, 65.5% had stage II-III disease. Fewer patients with stage 0-I disease (31.5%) were in the HR-positive group compared with the HR-negative group (34.5%, P < 0.001). Ki67 expression and HER2 status were also clearly different between the two groups. A higher percentage of HR-negative women had tumors with Ki67 ≥ 14% (76.5%) and HER2-positive expression (27.0%), while these proportions in the HR-positive group were only 64.2% and 16.1%, respectively (P < 0.001, Table 2).
Table 2
Intergroup difference of clinicopathological factors between HR-positive group and HR-negative group.
Characteristics
|
HR-positive
(n = 1606)
|
HR-negative
(n = 536)
|
P*
|
Median age (years)
|
37
|
37
|
0.99
|
Diagnosis period
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Before 2008
|
417(26.0)
|
139(25.9%)
|
|
2008–2012
|
601(37.4%)
|
247(46.1%)
|
|
Since 2013
|
588(36.6%)
|
150(28.0%)
|
|
Menopausal status at diagnosis
|
|
|
0.19
|
Post-menopausal
|
34(2.1%)
|
6(1.1%)
|
|
Pre-menopausal
|
1557(96.9%)
|
527(98.3%)
|
|
NA #
|
15(0.9%)
|
3(0.6%)
|
|
Education level
|
|
|
0.24
|
Elementary school and lower
|
111(6.9%)
|
34(6.3%)
|
|
Junior/senior high school ξ
|
972(60.5%)
|
333(62.1%)
|
|
College and higher
|
233(14.5%)
|
61(11.4%)
|
|
Other/NA*
|
290(18.1%)
|
108(20.1%)
|
|
Living region
|
|
|
0.14
|
Rural
|
431(26.8%)
|
161(30.0%)
|
|
Urban
|
1161(72.3%)
|
367(68.5%)
|
|
NA #
|
14 (0.9%)
|
8(1.5%)
|
|
BMI
|
|
|
0.40
|
BMI < 18.5
|
85(5.3%)
|
32(6.0%)
|
|
BMI ≥ 18.5 < 24
|
956(59.5%)
|
291(54.3%)
|
|
BMI > 24
|
308(19.2%)
|
108(20.1%)
|
|
NA #
|
257(16.0%)
|
105(19.6%)
|
|
Family history of breast cancer
|
|
|
0.48
|
Yes
|
19(1.2%)
|
4(0.7%)
|
|
No
|
1587(98.8%)
|
532(99.3%)
|
|
Family history of other malignant tumor
|
|
|
0.32
|
Yes
|
126(7.8%)
|
50(9.3%)
|
|
No
|
1480(92.2%)
|
486(90.7%)
|
|
pT stageδ
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
0
|
38(2.4%)
|
18(3.4%)
|
|
1
|
490(30.5%)
|
148(27.6%)
|
|
2
|
720(44.8%)
|
239(44.6%)
|
|
3
|
89(5.5%)
|
45(8.4%)
|
|
4
|
82(5.1%)
|
19(3.5%)
|
|
NA#
|
187(11.6%)
|
67(12.5%)
|
|
pN stageδ
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
0
|
742(46.2%)
|
265(49.4%)
|
|
1
|
501(31.2%)
|
165(30.8%)
|
|
2
|
196(12.2%)
|
51(9.5%)
|
|
3
|
166(10.3%)
|
55(10.3%)
|
|
NA#
|
1(0.1%)
|
0(0%)
|
|
Clinical stageδ
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
0
|
226(14.1%)
|
83(15.5%)
|
|
I
|
279(17.4%)
|
102(19.0%)
|
|
II
|
700(43.6%)
|
223(41.6%)
|
|
III
|
401(25.0%)
|
128(23.9%)
|
|
Ki67
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
< 14%
|
408(25.4%)
|
50(9.3%)
|
|
≥ 14%
|
1031(64.2%)
|
410(76.5%)
|
|
NA#
|
167(10.4%)
|
76(14.2%)
|
|
HER2
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
negative
|
1161(72.3%)
|
345(64.4%)
|
|
positive
|
259(16.1%)
|
145(27.0%)
|
|
equivocal
|
25(1.6%)
|
1(0.2%)
|
|
NA#
|
161(10.0%)
|
45(8.4%)
|
|
Surgery
|
|
|
0.16
|
Radical mastectomy
|
69(4.3%)
|
30(5.6%)
|
|
Modified radical mastectomy
|
1252(78.0%)
|
431(80.4%)
|
|
Breast-conserving surgery
|
206(12.8%)
|
53(9.9%)
|
|
No/other
|
79(4.9%)
|
22(4.1%)
|
|
Chemotherapy pattern
|
|
|
0.87
|
Neoadjuvant
|
232(14.4%)
|
82(15.6%)
|
|
Adjuvant
|
1285(80.0%)
|
429(79.8%)
|
|
Salvage
|
13(0.8%)
|
3(0.8%)
|
|
Never
|
76(4.7%)
|
22(3.8%)
|
|
Radiation
|
|
|
0.06
|
Pre-operational
|
20(1.2%)
|
5(0.9%)
|
|
Post-operational
|
655(40.8%)
|
185(34.5%)
|
|
Salvage
|
22(1.4%)
|
7(1.3%)
|
|
Never
|
909(56.6%)
|
339(63.2%)
|
|
Adjuvant endocrine therapy
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
AI
|
107(6.7%)
|
2(0.4%)
|
|
SERM
|
1210(75.3%)
|
43(8.0%)
|
|
Never
|
289(18.0%)
|
491(91.6%)
|
|
Neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Anthracycline
|
49(3.1%)
|
15(2.8%)
|
|
Anthracycline combined with PTX
|
156(9.7%)
|
42(7.8%)
|
|
PTX based
|
11(0.7%)
|
16(3.0%)
|
|
Others
|
16(1.0%)
|
9(1.7%)
|
|
Never
|
1374(85.5)
|
454(84.7%)
|
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy regimen
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Anthracycline
|
402(25.0%)
|
67(12.5%)
|
|
Anthracycline combined with PTX
|
677(42.2%)
|
301(56.2%)
|
|
PTX based
|
113(7.0%)
|
28(5.2%)
|
|
others
|
93(5.8%)
|
33(6.1%)
|
|
Never
|
321(20.0)
|
107(20.0)
|
|
Surgical castration
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Yes
|
191(11.9%)
|
13(2.4%)
|
|
No
|
1415(88.1%)
|
523(97.6%)
|
|
# Excluded by P-value calculation |
* Contained patients whose educational level was not available and unspecified |
δ Wilcoxon rank sum test |
Abbreviations: NA = not available, BMI = body mass index, PTX = paclitaxel |
Table 3
Survival outcomes in HR-negative group and HR-positive group
|
HR-negative (n = 536)
|
HR-positive (n = 1606)
|
|
|
N (%)
|
N (%)
|
Hazards ratioHR positive(95% CI)
|
Overall mortality
|
60 (11.2%)
|
143 (8.9%)
|
1.50(1.03–2.21) #
|
Invasive disease
|
77(14.4%)
|
242(15.1%)
|
1.47(1.05–2.05) *
|
# HR was additionally adjusted for diagnosis period(before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), education level (primary school or lower, high school, undergraduate or higher), pT (0–1, 2, 3–4, NA), pN (0,1, 2, 3), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), family history of non-breast cancer malignant disease (no, yes), chemotherapy pattern (never/salvage, adjuvant, neoadjuvant), radiotherapy mode (never/salvage, adjuvant/neoadjuvant), surgery (never, breast conserving, modified radical, radical/extensive radical) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, ,SERM). |
* HR was additionally adjusted for age, diagnosis period(before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), pT (0–1, 2, 3–4, NA), pN (0,1, 2, 3), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), surgical castration (never, yes), chemotherapy patterns, radiotherapy mode (never/salvage, adjuvant/neoadjuvant) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, ,SERM). |
First stratum of every factor was the reference. |
Treatment patterns and chemotherapy regimens
The main surgery types in this study included breast conserving surgery, modified radical surgery, and radical or extensive radical surgery. There was no significant difference in the surgery pattern between the HR-positive group and the HR-negative group. Differences in chemotherapy between the two groups were not obvious either. There were marginally more women free from radiotherapy during the whole disease process in the HR-negative group compared with their counterparts (63.2% vs. 56.6%, P = 0.06). In both groups, the percentage of patients receiving anthracycline combined with taxanes as neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy was the highest. Anthracycline was the second highest frequently used chemotherapy regimen. Taxanes were used more frequently in the adjuvant phase than in the neoadjuvant phase. Over 80% of women never received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, while approximately 20% of women were free from adjuvant chemotherapy in both the HR-positive group and the HR-negative group. In addition, 11.9% of women received surgical castration after a diagnosis of HR-positive BC, and 2.4% of women underwent surgical castration during the treatment process in the HR-negative group (Table 2).
Survival outcomes
To estimate survival outcomes in the HR-positive and HR-negative groups, we drew Kaplan-Meier survival curves of OS and iDFS in the two groups. There was no significant difference in OS (Log-rank P = 0.075) between the two groups. Three-year and five-year OS were 92.7% and 89.8% in the HR-negative group, while three-/five-year OS in the HR-positive group were 97.3% and 94.7%, respectively (Fig. 3A). Univariate Cox hazards proportional regression demonstrated that HR status was not significantly associated with OS (HR 0.76, 95% CI: 0.56–1.03, P = 0.076). Factors including time-period diagnosed, patient educational level, other malignant diseases, family history (except for BC), tumor histologic grade, pT and pN, anatomic stage, Ki67 expression intensity in tumor tissue, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and endocrine therapy were all OS relative factors (P < 0.05, Fig. 4A). After additionally adjusting independent prognosis relative factors and HR status, the latter demonstrated remarkable relativity with OS (HR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.03–2.21, P = 0.04). Besides, more advanced pT and pN, Ki67 ≥ 14%, adjuvant radiotherapy, and endocrine therapy also independently prognosed worse OS in multivariate cox regression. The three-year and five-year iDFS were 90.0% and 86.6% in the HR-negative group, and the three-/five-year iDFS in the HR-positive group were 92.3% and 87.7%, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.85, Fig. 3B). Univariate Cox hazards proportional regression showed that age, time-period diagnosed, surgical castration, tumor histologic grade, pT and pN, anatomic clinical stage, Ki67 expression intensity in tumor tissue, chemotherapy and radiotherapy patterns, as well as endocrine therapy were all iDFS relative factors (P < 0.05, Fig. 4B). Factors that were significant in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariate Cox hazards proportional regression combined with HR status. The HR-positive status predicted worse iDFS in the multivariate analysis (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.05–2.05, P = 0.02). Diagnosis after 2008 and receiving endocrine treatment with SERMs were independent favorable outcome predictors, while higher pT and pN stage, surgical castration, and Ki67 ≥ 14% were independent risk factors in multivariate cox regression analysis.
Considering the important role of HR status in young female BC, we further analyzed factors related to OS and iDFS in HR-positive and HR-negative subgroups. Factors which were associated with OS and iDFS (P < 0.1, Supplementary Fig. 1/2) in univariate cox regression were further adopted in multivariate analysis. Higher gravidity, more advanced N stage, Ki67 ≥ 14% and radical mastectomy were independent risk factors while endocrine therapy was independent protective factor in HR-positive subgroup for OS (Table 4). In HR-negative subgroup, higher T stage and N stage independently predicted worse OS while modified mastectomy prognosed better OS. Multivariate analysis also showed that later diagnosis period and endocrine therapy independently prognosed better iDFS and more advanced T stage, N stage and histological grade related to worse iDFS outcomes in HR-positive subgroup (Table 4). Only women who diagnosed with BC at older ages prognosed better iDFS in HR-negative subgroup (Table 4). Endocrine therapy significantly improved OS (HR AI = 0.25, 95%CI 0.09–0.65, P = 0.005, HR SERM = 0.27, 95%CI 0.17–0.44, P < 0.001) and iDFS (HR AI = 0.58, 95%CI 0.32–1.09, P = 0.09, HR SERM = 0.60, 95%CI 0.42–0.86, P = 0.006) outcomes in HR-positive subgroup patients after adjusting all the prognosis associated factors (Supplementary table 1/2).
Table 4
Hormonal receptor subgroup multivariate cox regression
HR-positive subgroup
|
OS
|
|
DFS
|
Factors
|
Hazards ratio (95% CI)
|
P
|
Factors
|
Hazards ratio (95% CI)
|
P
|
Gravity
|
1.14(1.01–1.28)
|
0.03
|
Diagnosis period
|
|
|
pN stage
|
|
|
2008–2012 vs. Before 2008
|
0.6(0.43–0.83)
|
0.002
|
1 vs. 0
|
1.58(0.87–2.89)
|
0.14
|
Since 2013 vs. Before 2008
|
0.69(0.47–1.01)
|
0.06
|
2 vs. 0
|
2.44(1.26–4.74)
|
0.008
|
Castrate vs. Never
|
1.77(1.28–2.45)
|
0.001
|
3 vs. 0
|
4.63(2.37–9.04)
|
< 0.001
|
pT stage
|
|
|
Ki67
|
|
|
2 vs. 0–1
|
1.34(0.93–1.92)
|
0.12
|
≥ 14% vs. <14%
|
2.11(1.17–3.82)
|
0.01
|
3–4 vs. 0–1
|
2.57(1.66–3.98)
|
< 0.001
|
Surgery pattern
|
|
|
pN stage
|
|
|
Conserve vs. Never/salvage
|
0.4(0.07–2.25)
|
0.3
|
1 vs. 0
|
1.43(1.01–2.03)
|
0.04
|
Modified vs. Never/salvage
|
1.35(0.5–3.67)
|
0.55
|
2 vs. 0
|
1.88(1.26–2.81)
|
0.002
|
Radical vs. Never/salvage
|
3.28(1.08–9.91)
|
0.04
|
3 vs. 0
|
2.94(1.96–4.42)
|
< 0.001
|
Endocrine therapy
|
|
|
Ki67
|
|
|
AI vs. Never
|
0.20(0.08–0.55)
|
0.002
|
≥ 14% vs. <14%
|
1.70(1.18–2.45)
|
0.005
|
SERM vs. Never
|
0.32(0.20–0.51)
|
< 0.001
|
Histology grade
|
|
|
|
|
|
III vs. I-II
|
1.38(2.01–0.09)
|
0.09
|
|
|
|
Endocrine therapy
|
|
|
|
|
|
AI vs. No
|
0.54(0.31–0.97)
|
0.04
|
|
|
|
SERM vs. No
|
0.55(0.39–0.76)
|
< 0.001
|
HR-negative subgroup
|
OS
|
|
DFS
|
Factors
|
Hazards ratio (95% CI)
|
P
|
Factors
|
Hazards ratio (95% CI)
|
P
|
T stage
|
|
|
Age
|
|
|
2 vs. 0–1
|
1.7(0.77–3.76)
|
0.19
|
≥ 30 < 35 vs. <30
|
0.49(0.22–1.07)
|
0.07
|
3–4 vs. 0–1
|
4.19(1.73–10.17)
|
0.001
|
≥ 35 vs. <30
|
0.51(0.26–0.98)
|
0.04
|
N stage
|
|
|
T stage
|
|
|
1 vs. 0
|
1.36(0.66–2.78)
|
0.41
|
2 vs. 0–1
|
1.75(0.95–3.24)
|
0.07
|
2 vs. 0
|
3.76(1.71–8.30)
|
0.001
|
3–4 vs. 0–1
|
2.18(1.00-4.75)
|
0.05
|
3 vs. 0
|
3.36(1.53–7.39)
|
0.003
|
N stage
|
|
|
Surgery pattern
|
|
|
1 vs. 0
|
0.97(0.54–1.71)
|
0.91
|
Conserved vs. Never
|
0.59(0.16–2.18)
|
0.43
|
2 vs. 0
|
1.78(0.85–3.70)
|
0.13
|
Modified vs. Never
|
0.37(0.14–0.98)
|
0.04
|
3 vs. 0
|
2.32(1.19–4.55)
|
0.01
|
Radical vs. Never
|
0.46(0.14–1.47)
|
0.19
|
|
|
|
Propensity score matching (PSM)
There were significant differences in baseline clinicopathological characteristics between patients receiving or not receiving chemoradiotherapy. To investigate the effects of these treatments, PSM was first conducted to achieve post-randomization. Before matching, variables including diagnosis time-period, pT, pN, Ki67, histological grade, and HER2 status were imbalanced between patients receiving or not receiving all three treatments. HR status was also significantly different between patients receiving or not receiving adjuvant radiotherapy (Table 5). We matched patients based on their propensity to receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, and adjuvant radiotherapy. The propensity score (PS) was the conditional probability of receiving an exposure given a group of covariates that can be used to adjust intergroup bias to estimate the effects of different treatment patterns. The intergroup difference of all variables had been eliminated after PSM (Table 5), and the balance of covariates of the three treatments in Table 5 was substantially improved after matching (Fig. 5). We did not conduct PSM for surgery because most of the patients received modified radical surgery (77.7%, Table 1).
Table 5
Clinical and pathological factors by treatment pattern before and after propensity score matching (PSM)
|
Before PMS
|
After PMS
|
Covariates
|
No adjuvant chemotherapy
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy
|
P
|
No adjuvant chemotherapy
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy
|
P*
|
N
|
427
|
1714
|
|
249
|
249
|
|
Diagnosis time period (%)
|
|
|
0.008
|
|
|
0.56
|
before 2008
|
86 (20.1)
|
469 (27.4)
|
|
71 (28.5)
|
82 (32.9)
|
|
2008–2012
|
187 (43.8)
|
661 (38.6)
|
|
103 (41.4)
|
95 (38.2)
|
|
since 2013
|
154 (36.1)
|
584 (34.1)
|
|
75 (30.1)
|
72 (28.9)
|
|
pT (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.97
|
0–1
|
118 (27.6)
|
576 (33.6)
|
|
84 (33.7)
|
84 (33.7)
|
|
2
|
159 (37.2)
|
800 (46.7)
|
|
104 (41.8)
|
107 (43.0)
|
|
3–4
|
117 (27.4)
|
118 (6.9)
|
|
34 (13.7)
|
34 (13.7)
|
|
NA
|
33 (7.7)
|
220 (12.8)
|
|
27 (10.8)
|
24 (9.6)
|
|
pN (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.89
|
0
|
134 (31.4)
|
873 (50.9)
|
|
105 (42.2)
|
105 (42.2)
|
|
1
|
139 (32.6)
|
527 (30.7)
|
|
82 (32.9)
|
77 (30.9)
|
|
2
|
70 (16.4)
|
177 (10.3)
|
|
37 (14.9)
|
43 (17.3)
|
|
3
|
84 (19.7)
|
137 (8.0)
|
|
25 (10.0)
|
24 (9.6)
|
|
HR-positive (%)
|
320 (74.9)
|
1285 (75.0)
|
1
|
195 (78.3)
|
196 (78.7)
|
1.00
|
Ki67 (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.63
|
< 14%
|
138 (32.3)
|
319 (18.6)
|
|
63 (25.3)
|
62 (24.9)
|
|
≥ 14%
|
240 (56.2)
|
1201 (70.1)
|
|
159 (63.9)
|
153 (61.4)
|
|
NA
|
49 (11.5)
|
194 (11.3)
|
|
27 (10.8)
|
34 (13.7)
|
|
HER2 (%)
|
|
|
0.001
|
|
|
0.97
|
negative
|
275 (64.4)
|
1230 (71.8)
|
|
192 (77.1)
|
194 (77.9)
|
|
positive
|
85 (19.9)
|
319 (18.6)
|
|
38 (15.3)
|
36 (14.5)
|
|
equivocal/NA
|
67 (15.7)
|
165 (9.6)
|
|
19 (7.6)
|
19 (7.6)
|
|
WHO grade (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.86
|
I-II
|
58 (13.6)
|
435 (25.4)
|
|
39 (15.7)
|
39 (15.7)
|
|
III
|
80 (18.7)
|
648 (37.8)
|
|
59 (23.7)
|
54 (21.7)
|
|
NA
|
289 (67.7)
|
631 (36.8)
|
|
151 (60.6)
|
156 (62.7)
|
|
Covariates
|
No adjuvant radiotherapy
|
Adjuvant radiotherapy
|
P
|
No adjuvant radiotherapy
|
Adjuvant radiotherapy
|
P#
|
N
|
1301
|
840
|
|
626
|
626
|
|
Diagnosis time period (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.28
|
before 2008
|
303 (23.3)
|
252 (30.0)
|
|
156 (24.9)
|
180 (28.8)
|
|
2008–2012
|
502 (38.6)
|
346 (41.2)
|
|
259 (41.4)
|
239 (38.2)
|
|
since 2013
|
496 (38.1)
|
242 (28.8)
|
|
211 (33.7)
|
207 (33.1)
|
|
pT (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.84
|
0–1
|
473 (36.4)
|
221 (26.3)
|
|
177 (28.3)
|
191 (30.5)
|
|
2
|
565 (43.4)
|
394 (46.9)
|
|
294 (47.0)
|
289 (46.2)
|
|
3–4
|
111 (8.5)
|
124 (14.8)
|
|
81 (12.9)
|
76 (12.1)
|
|
NA
|
152 (11.7)
|
101 (12.0)
|
|
74 (11.8)
|
70 (11.2)
|
|
pN (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.87
|
0
|
822 (63.2)
|
185 (22.0)
|
|
185 (29.6)
|
185 (29.6)
|
|
1
|
306 (23.5)
|
360 (42.9)
|
|
284 (45.4)
|
295 (47.1)
|
|
2
|
89 (6.8)
|
158 (18.8)
|
|
76 (12.1)
|
68 (10.9)
|
|
3
|
84 (6.5)
|
137 (16.3)
|
|
81 (12.9)
|
78 (12.5)
|
|
HR-positive (%)
|
950 (73.0)
|
655 (78.0)
|
0.011
|
490 (78.3)
|
484 (77.3)
|
0.73
|
Covariates
|
No neoadjuvant chemotherapy
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy
|
P
|
No neoadjuvant chemotherapy
|
Neoadjuvant chemotherapy
|
Pζ
|
N
|
1827
|
314
|
|
278
|
278
|
|
Mean age
|
35.77 (4.05)
|
34.89 (4.46)
|
< 0.001
|
35.03 (4.28)
|
34.94 (4.29)
|
0.80
|
pT (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.92
|
0–1
|
638 (34.9)
|
56 (17.8)
|
|
53 (19.1)
|
56 (20.1)
|
|
2
|
829 (45.4)
|
130 (41.4)
|
|
119 (42.8)
|
123 (44.2)
|
|
3–4
|
122 (6.7)
|
113 (36.0)
|
|
88 (31.7)
|
84 (30.2)
|
|
NA
|
238 (13.0)
|
15 (4.8)
|
|
18 (6.5)
|
15 (5.4)
|
|
pN (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.81
|
0
|
951 (52.1)
|
56 (17.8)
|
|
58 (20.9)
|
55 (19.8)
|
|
1
|
552 (30.2)
|
114 (36.3)
|
|
97 (34.9)
|
103 (37.1)
|
|
2
|
181 (9.9)
|
66 (21.0)
|
|
53 (19.1)
|
58 (20.9)
|
|
3
|
143 (7.8)
|
78 (24.8)
|
|
70 (25.2)
|
62 (22.3)
|
|
HR-positive (%)
|
1373 (75.2)
|
232 (73.9)
|
0.684
|
204 (73.4)
|
203 (73.0)
|
1.00
|
Ki67 (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.78
|
< 14%
|
350 (19.2)
|
107 (34.1)
|
|
78 (28.1)
|
84 (30.2)
|
|
≥ 14%
|
1263 (69.1)
|
178 (56.7)
|
|
168 (60.4)
|
166 (59.7)
|
|
NA
|
214 (11.7)
|
29 (9.2)
|
|
32 (11.5)
|
28 (10.1)
|
|
HER2 (%)
|
|
|
0.001
|
|
|
0.91
|
negative
|
1312 (71.8)
|
193 (61.5)
|
|
180 (64.7)
|
184 (66.2)
|
|
positive
|
330 (18.1)
|
74 (23.6)
|
|
64 (23.0)
|
63 (22.7)
|
|
equivocal/NA
|
185 (10.1)
|
47 (15.0)
|
|
34 (12.2)
|
31 (11.2)
|
|
WHO grade (%)
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
|
|
0.99
|
I-II
|
447 (24.5)
|
46 (14.6)
|
|
44 (15.8)
|
45 (16.2)
|
|
III
|
667 (36.5)
|
61 (19.4)
|
|
62 (22.3)
|
61 (21.9)
|
|
NA
|
713 (39.0)
|
207 (65.9)
|
|
172 (61.9)
|
172 (61.9)
|
|
*Age was excluded from PSM for patients receiving or nor receiving adjuvant chemotherapy because an ideal balance could not achieve when age was included. |
#Only diagnosis time period pT, pN, and HR status were included in PSM for patients receiving or nor receiving adjuvant radiotherapy. Covariates included age, Ki67, HER2 status, WHO grade were balanced between the two groups and ideal balance could not be acquired when add any of these four covariates. |
ζCovariate of diagnosis time period was excluded from PSM for patients receiving or nor receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy because an ideal balance could not achieve when this factor was included. |
Multivariable Cox hazards proportional regression was done to explore the effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant radiotherapy in pre-matched and post-matched cohorts. The prognosis-related variables of OS and iDFS were adjusted in the regression models together with treatment status (Table 6). Before matching, neoadjuvant chemotherapy was an independent risk factor for OS (HR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.07–2.33, P = 0.02), adjuvant radiotherapy prognosed better OS (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.44–0.84, P = 0.003), while adjuvant chemotherapy showed no significant effect on OS (HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.54–1.06, P = 0.10). After matching, neoadjuvant chemotherapy was no longer a risk predictor for OS (HR = 1.48, 95% CI 0.93–2.37, P = 0.10). Adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.26–0.87, P = 0.02) and adjuvant radiotherapy (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.37–0.78, P = 0.001) significantly reduced the risk of death by 53% and 46%, respectively. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.10–2.05, P = 0.01) predicted unfavorable iDFS, while adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.93, P = 0.01) improved iDFS outcomes in the pre-matched cohorts. In the post-matched cohorts, adjuvant chemotherapy also predicted better iDFS (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38–0.94, P = 0.03), however, the impact of neoadjuvant chemotherapy on iDFS was reduced (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 0.98–2.06, P = 0.07). No association was seen between adjuvant radiotherapy and iDFS both before and after matching (Table 6).
Table 6
Cox proportional hazards regression analysis
|
OS
|
iDFS
|
|
Before PSM
|
After PSM
|
Before PSM
|
After PSM
|
|
HR
|
P
|
HR
|
P
|
HR
|
P
|
HR
|
P
|
Neoadjuvant chemotherapy
|
1.57 (1.07–2.33) a
|
0.02
|
1.48 (0.93–2.37) a
|
0.10
|
1.50 (1.10–2.05) b
|
0.01
|
1.42 (0.98–2.06) b
|
0.07
|
Adjuvant chemotherapy
|
0.75 (0.54–1.06) a
|
0.10
|
0.47 (0.26–0.87) a
|
0.02
|
0.71 (0.54–0.93) b
|
0.01
|
0.60 (0.38–0.94) b
|
0.03
|
Adjuvant radiotherapy
|
0.61 (0.44–0.84) c
|
0.003
|
0.54 (0.37–0.78) c
|
0.001
|
0.90 (0.70–1.16) d
|
0.43
|
0.80 (0.61–1.07) d
|
0.13
|
a HR was additionally adjusted for HR (negative, positive), diagnosis time period (before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), age, education level (primary school or lower, high school, undergraduate or higher, NA), family history of non-breast cancer malignant disease (no, yes), pT (0–1, 2, 3–4), pN (0, 1, 2, 3), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), HER2 status(negative, positive, equivoval/NA), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), adjuvant radiotherapy (no, yes) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, SERM) |
b HR was additionally adjusted for HR (negative, positive), diagnosis time period (before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), age, pT (0–1, 2, 3–4), pN (0, 1, 2, 3), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), HER2 status(negative, positive, equivoval/NA), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), surgery castration (no, yes), adjuvant radiotherapy (no, yes) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, SERM) |
c HR was additionally adjusted for HR (negative, positive), diagnosis time period (before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), age, education level (primary school or lower, high school, undergraduate or higher, NA), family history of non-breast cancer malignant disease (no, yes), pT (0–1, 2, 3–4), pN (0, 1, 2, 3), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), HER2 status(negative, positive, equivoval/NA), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), adjuvant chemotherapy (no/salvage, neoadjuvant, adjuvant) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, SERM) |
d HR was additionally adjusted for HR (negative, positive), diagnosis time period (before 2008, 2008–2012, since 2013), age, pT (0–1, 2, 3–4), pN (0, 1, 2, 3), Ki67(< 14%, ≥ 14%, NA), HER2 status(negative, positive, equivoval/NA), histological grade (I-II, III, NA), surgery castration (no, yes), adjuvant chemotherapy (no/salvage, neoadjuvant, adjuvant) and endocrine therapy (no, AI, SERM). |
To identify potential hidden biases which may have confounded our conclusions, we carried out sensitivity analyses. Patients with pT3-4 tumor or lymph node metastasis or HER2-positive BC or triple negative disease were included in the sensitivity analysis for neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy increased the risk of death and invasive disease events by 81% (HR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.07–3.04, P = 0.03) and 70% (HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.12–2.60, P = 0.01), respectively in the neoadjuvant chemotherapy cohort. Patients with pT3-4 tumor or lymph node metastasis (N = 1179) were grouped to conduct sensitivity analysis for adjuvant radiotherapy and adjuvant chemotherapy. After matching, adjuvant radiotherapy clearly improved OS by reducing death risk 51% (HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.33–0.73, P < 0.001). No iDFS benefit was found for adjuvant radiotherapy (HR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.61–1.14, P = 0.25). Furthermore, a significant iDFS benefit was attributed to adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.32–0.70, P < 0.001), while death risk was marginally decreased by adjuvant chemotherapy in this group of patients (HR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.25–1.02, P = 0.06).