Table 1 List of CMIP5 GCMs used in the present study
Model
|
Grid Resolution
|
Contributing CMIP5 Modeling Center
|
|
Latitude
|
Longitude
|
|
CanESM2
|
2.79
|
2.81
|
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Canada
|
GFDL-ESM2M
|
2.02
|
2.50
|
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), USA
|
CNRM-CM5
|
1.40
|
1.41
|
Centre National de Recherches Me´te´orologiques (CNRM), France
|
MPI-ESM-MR
|
1.87
|
1.88
|
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Germany
|
IPSL-CM5A-LR
|
1.89
|
3.75
|
Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France
|
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0
|
1.87
|
1.88
|
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia
|
Table 2 Performance metrics of the bias corrected (raw) GCM output and multi-model ensemble for the training period (1980-2005).
Variable
|
Metric
|
CanESM2
|
CNRM-CM5
|
CSIRO-Mk3
|
IPSL-CM5A-LR
|
MPI-ESM-MR
|
GFDL-ESM2M
|
BMA Ensemble
|
Tmax
|
R2
|
0.90(0.90)
|
0.92(0.88)
|
0.91(0.90)
|
0.90(0.90)
|
0.92(0.88)
|
0.90(0.86)
|
0.94
|
PBIAS
|
3.7(-42.5)
|
2.20(-55.40)
|
1.90(-37.40)
|
4.70(-41.4)
|
3.90(-50.3)
|
2.60(-60.6)
|
0.00
|
NSE
|
0.89(0.06)
|
0.91(-0.54)
|
0.90(0.25)
|
0.89(0.11)
|
0.91(-0.25)
|
0.89(-0.84)
|
0.94
|
Tmin
|
R2
|
0.93(0.97)
|
0.95(0.91)
|
0.94(0.90)
|
0.92(0.87)
|
0.95(0.88)
|
0.92(0.89)
|
0.97
|
PBIAS
|
4.4(-47.2)
|
4.7(-123.2)
|
2.3(-67.2)
|
6.5(-64.2)
|
6.4(-100)
|
4.1(-135.4)
|
0.00
|
NSE
|
0.92(0.11)
|
0.95(-0.05)
|
0.93(0.63)
|
0.92(0.55)
|
0.95(0.22)
|
0.92(-0.29)
|
0.97
|
Prcp
|
R2
|
0.11(0.04)
|
0.16(0.02)
|
0.20(0.04)
|
0.18(0.03)
|
0.13(0.01)
|
0.13(0.05)
|
0.41
|
PBIAS
|
0.8(130.6)
|
-4.30(150.8)
|
-2.10(57.50)
|
-2.30(116.2)
|
0.10(194.2)
|
4.4(194.0)
|
0.00
|
NSE
|
-0.44(-7.0)
|
-0.28(-7.51)
|
-0.14(-1.62)
|
-0.57(-6.09)
|
-0.28(-10.8)
|
-0.45(-13.7)
|
0.35
|
Table 3 Projected changes in mean maximum temperature (Tmax), mean minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation (Prcp) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with respect to the baseline (1980-2010) for Jhelum basin
|
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
Variable
|
Model
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
Tmax (˚C)
|
CanESM2
|
1.13
|
3.00
|
3.57
|
1.27
|
3.63
|
6.02
|
CNRM-CM5
|
0.81
|
1.59
|
2.17
|
0.83
|
2.17
|
3.44
|
CSIRO-Mk3
|
1.12
|
3.01
|
3.66
|
1.03
|
3.24
|
5.64
|
IPSL-CM5A-LR
|
1.26
|
2.98
|
3.54
|
1.05
|
3.61
|
6.30
|
MPI-ESM-MR
|
1.42
|
2.55
|
2.95
|
1.66
|
3.35
|
5.71
|
GFDL-ESM2M
|
1.09
|
2.05
|
2.46
|
1.30
|
2.86
|
4.67
|
BMA Ensemble
|
0.41
|
1.80
|
2.31
|
0.63
|
2.56
|
4.82
|
Tmin (˚C)
|
CanESM2
|
2.19
|
3.10
|
3.31
|
2.90
|
4.05
|
5.32
|
CNRM-CM5
|
1.20
|
1.67
|
2.00
|
1.47
|
2.15
|
2.95
|
CSIRO-Mk3
|
1.77
|
2.76
|
3.07
|
2.13
|
3.23
|
4.69
|
IPSL-CM5A-LR
|
2.29
|
3.02
|
3.26
|
2.74
|
4.03
|
5.36
|
MPI-ESM-MR
|
1.64
|
2.36
|
2.57
|
2.21
|
3.30
|
4.71
|
GFDL-ESM2M
|
1.55
|
2.06
|
2.30
|
2.30
|
3.14
|
4.23
|
BMA Ensemble
|
1.39
|
2.12
|
2.37
|
2.14
|
3.12
|
4.35
|
Prcp (%)
|
CanESM2
|
-19.88
|
-26.84
|
-12.05
|
-17.86
|
-17.36
|
-7.82
|
CNRM-CM5
|
-25.90
|
-13.51
|
-18.65
|
-28.57
|
-20.33
|
-11.36
|
CSIRO-Mk3
|
-17.98
|
-13.83
|
-9.35
|
-10.80
|
-5.52
|
-8.64
|
IPSL-CM5A-LR
|
-30.59
|
-19.61
|
-8.64
|
-25.61
|
-14.46
|
9.66
|
MPI-ESM-MR
|
-34.03
|
-30.26
|
-28.05
|
-27.52
|
-31.94
|
-30.84
|
GFDL-ESM2M
|
-25.02
|
-17.88
|
-15.60
|
-12.34
|
-13.71
|
-7.37
|
BMA Ensemble
|
-7.20
|
-5.88
|
-4.57
|
-4.75
|
-4.51
|
-2.47
|
Table 4 BMA estimates of the station scale changes in mean maximum temperature (Tmax), mean minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation (Prcp) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with respect to the baseline (1980-2010) for Jhelum basin
|
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
Variable
|
Station
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
Tmax(˚C)
|
Gulmarg
|
0.87
|
2.14
|
2.66
|
1.03
|
2.96
|
5.21
|
Kokernag
|
0.49
|
1.81
|
2.33
|
0.65
|
2.63
|
4.92
|
Kupwara
|
0.45
|
1.79
|
2.32
|
0.54
|
2.62
|
5.03
|
Pahalgam
|
0.71
|
1.88
|
2.34
|
0.84
|
2.63
|
4.72
|
Qazigund
|
0.62
|
1.93
|
2.45
|
0.71
|
2.66
|
4.93
|
Srinagar
|
0.48
|
1.68
|
2.19
|
0.60
|
2.48
|
4.69
|
Tmin(˚C)
|
Gulmarg
|
1.63
|
2.36
|
2.65
|
2.25
|
3.37
|
4.72
|
Kokernag
|
1.38
|
2.11
|
2.38
|
2.08
|
3.17
|
4.53
|
Kupwara
|
1.55
|
2.12
|
2.33
|
2.37
|
3.29
|
4.42
|
Pahalgam
|
0.97
|
1.69
|
1.99
|
1.62
|
2.73
|
4.11
|
Qazigund
|
1.61
|
2.26
|
2.50
|
2.31
|
3.31
|
4.57
|
Srinagar
|
1.43
|
2.05
|
2.27
|
2.14
|
3.12
|
4.35
|
Prcp (%)
|
Gulmarg
|
0.40
|
5.28
|
7.25
|
-5.26
|
-5.48
|
-4.39
|
Kokernag
|
-8.58
|
-7.87
|
-6.31
|
-6.92
|
-6.72
|
-5.01
|
Kupwara
|
-5.90
|
-5.44
|
-4.34
|
-3.87
|
-4.39
|
-2.72
|
Pahalgam
|
-4.60
|
-2.75
|
-1.74
|
-2.48
|
-1.69
|
0.46
|
Qazigund
|
-0.64
|
1.26
|
2.90
|
1.81
|
2.35
|
4.84
|
Srinagar
|
-0.51
|
0.08
|
0.15
|
0.29
|
0.39
|
0.74
|
Table 5 List of the sensitive parameters used in calibration of SWAT
Rank
|
Parameter Name
|
Definition
|
t-Stat
|
p-Value
|
1
|
V__TLAPS.sub
|
Temperature lapse rate (°C km−1)
|
-31.89
|
0.00
|
2
|
R__CN2.mgt
|
SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II
|
-17.29
|
0.00
|
3
|
V__GW_DELAY.gw
|
Groundwater delay time (days)
|
-12.37
|
0.00
|
4
|
V__RCHRG_DP.gw
|
Aquifer percolation coefficient
|
-9.12
|
0.00
|
5
|
V__SOL_AWC(..).sol
|
Soil available water storage capacity (mm H2O/mm soil)
|
6.18
|
0.00
|
6
|
V__SFTMP.bsn
|
Snowfall temperature (°C)
|
3.81
|
0.00
|
7
|
V__ESCO.hru
|
Soil evaporation compensation factor
|
-3.37
|
0.00
|
8
|
V__SURLAG.bsn
|
Saturated hydraulic conductivity (mm/h)
|
-2.52
|
0.01
|
9
|
R__HRU_SLP.hru
|
Average slope steepness (fraction)
|
2.15
|
0.03
|
10
|
V__EPCO.hru
|
Plant uptake compensation factor
|
-2.14
|
0.03
|
11
|
V__SMTMP.bsn
|
Snowmelt base temperature (°C)
|
1.65
|
0.10
|
Table 6 Performance metrics of SWAT model during calibration (2002-2011) and validation (2012-2016) periods
Gauge
|
Period
|
R2
|
PBIAS
|
NSE
|
p-factor
|
r-factor
|
Sangam
|
Calibration
|
0.72
|
-14.6
|
0.67
|
0.69
|
0.47
|
Validation
|
0.66
|
-19.6
|
0.62
|
0.63
|
0.54
|
Ram Munshi Bagh
|
Calibration
|
0.81
|
-7.4
|
0.72
|
0.84
|
0.39
|
Validation
|
0.76
|
-12.4
|
0.68
|
0.76
|
0.48
|
Asham
|
Calibration
|
0.75
|
-8.1
|
0.7
|
0.75
|
0.43
|
Validation
|
0.68
|
-17.3
|
0.64
|
0.66
|
0.52
|
Table 7 Projected changes in streamflow’s of Jhelum under multi-model ensemble climatic projections for 21st century
|
|
RCP4.5
|
RCP8.5
|
Gauge
|
Season
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
Sangam
|
Winter
|
-28.54
|
-37.10
|
-39.34
|
-15.89
|
-34.04
|
-37.46
|
Spring
|
-31.76
|
-32.33
|
-30.61
|
-28.97
|
-32.56
|
-37.22
|
Summer
|
-23.96
|
-40.80
|
-45.83
|
-21.61
|
-44.20
|
-61.34
|
Autumn
|
6.83
|
2.32
|
1.97
|
16.07
|
3.26
|
-4.82
|
Annual
|
-23.76
|
-30.53
|
-31.52
|
-19.07
|
-31.15
|
-39.78
|
Ram Munshi Bagh
|
Winter
|
-31.89
|
-39.81
|
-41.84
|
-19.82
|
-35.78
|
-36.84
|
Spring
|
-34.23
|
-35.21
|
-33.73
|
-31.80
|
-35.91
|
-40.84
|
Summer
|
-27.46
|
-43.55
|
-48.38
|
-25.22
|
-46.80
|
-62.95
|
Autumn
|
2.64
|
-2.34
|
-2.91
|
11.12
|
-2.01
|
-10.32
|
Annual
|
-26.87
|
-33.51
|
-34.52
|
-22.52
|
-34.24
|
-42.38
|
Asham
|
Winter
|
-31.13
|
-41.38
|
-44.50
|
-19.53
|
-38.54
|
-41.56
|
Spring
|
-35.06
|
-35.61
|
-34.59
|
-33.22
|
-37.27
|
-42.04
|
Summer
|
-27.91
|
-45.98
|
-51.91
|
-27.55
|
-50.65
|
-67.94
|
Autumn
|
1.92
|
-4.71
|
-5.75
|
9.80
|
-4.97
|
-12.93
|
Annual
|
-27.68
|
-35.45
|
-37.28
|
-24.53
|
-37.41
|
-46.31
|