3.1. Dynamics of wheat production and mineral fertilizer use in Kazakhstan, descriptive analysis
The agriculture is an industry where Kazakhstan has a competitive advantage, which consists in massive availability of agricultural land (Table 3). Kazakhstan takes the ninth largest country in the world, with an area of 2,724,900 square kilometers. At that, area of agricultural lands is 110,971.8 thousand hectares, which is equivalent to 1 million 109,718 thousand square kilometers, and accounts for 41% of the entire country's territory, which stipulates the considerable production potential of the republic, especially under conditions of global challenges and rapidly growing world population.
Table 3
Categories of agricultural lands with a breakdown by regions of Kazakhstan*
Agricultural lands
|
Unit of measure
|
Croplands
|
Total agricultural lands
|
In Kazakhstan
|
Ths. ha
|
26 120.5
|
110 971.8
|
Ths. km2
|
261 205
|
1 109 718
|
Structure of agricultural lands
|
%
|
24
|
100
|
* Information submitted as of November 01, 2021. Source: Committee of Land Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan |
The regional specialization of the regions growing wheat in the country is as follows: As can be seen from Table 4, the main regions growing wheat are Akmolinskaya (31,1% of seeds in the republic is accounted for by this region), Kostanaiskaya (share – 29,9%) and North Kazakhstan (share – 18,6%) regions. The total specific weight of these regions is 79.6%, or three-quarters of all crops.
Table 4
Specialization* of regions growing wheat
Regions
|
Cultivated lands on average for 2015–2020, ths. ha
|
Share, %
|
Akmolinsk
|
3 693.3
|
31.1
|
Kostanaisk
|
3 543.4
|
29.9
|
North Kazakhstan
|
2 210.7
|
18.6
|
Karaganda
|
619.5
|
5.2
|
Pavlodar
|
508.1
|
4.3
|
East Kazakhstan
|
374.8
|
3.2
|
Aktobe
|
284.9
|
2.4
|
Turkestan
|
183.2
|
1.5
|
West Kazakhstan
|
180.2
|
1.5
|
Almaty
|
132.6
|
1.1
|
Zhambyl
|
121.8
|
1.0
|
Other
|
12.54
|
0.1
|
Republic of Kazakhstan
|
11 865.2
|
100.0
|
* specialization was determined through the ranking of cultivated lands. Source: ASPR of the of the RK of BNS |
The need for wheat per head of population is presented in Table 5 and calculated by using the conversion factors applied in the Tables 1,2.
Table 5
Provision of the population with wheat in accordance with consumption rates
Name
|
Unit of measure
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Population size
|
Ths. people.
|
17 918
|
18 157
|
18 396
|
18 632
|
18 833
|
Need (wheat) − 195 kg per capita per year
|
Ths. tons
|
3 494
|
3 541
|
3 587
|
3 633
|
3 672
|
Bulk yield
|
Ths. tons
|
14 985
|
14 803
|
13 944
|
11 452
|
14 258
|
Meeting the demands through domestic production
|
%
|
429
|
418
|
389
|
315
|
388
|
Source: Own calculations based on the methodology of ASPR of the of the RK of BNS |
In 2020, meeting the population's demand for wheat through domestic production was 388% and decreased slightly, by 41% compared to the same indicator in 2016. The decrease is due to an increase in population by 915 thousand people and a decrease in gross yield by 727 thousand tons during the analyzed period. The annual indicators for meeting the population's demand for wheat through domestic production show a fourfold overproduction of wheat in the country.
Figure 1. shows the yield indicators and the share of fertilized area from the cultivated land by wheat for 2009-2020s in Kazakhstan. The period under review shows the consistently low yields of wheat, while the share of fertilized area from cultivated land shows a marked increase from 4–22.5%. Therefore, there is no correlation between two indicators.
At that, conducted agrochemical analyses of soils suggest that soil fertility in Kazakhstan is different on every hectare, and soils are disparate. The mineral fertilizers are applied irrationally, without the use of methods of discriminatory application of mineral fertilizers. The applied volumes of mineral fertilizers do not meet the scientific demand of plants for mineral fertilizers.
Figure 2. shows the use of mineral fertilizers (nutrient nitrogen N + phosphorus oxide P2O5 + nutrient potassium K2O) per total area of croplands in different countries. One of the lowest values was in Kazakhstan − 2.9 kg/ha for the total area of croplands. In Canada, 105 kg/ha is used for the total area of croplands.
Figure 3. shows the production volumes of nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) fertilizers at the specialized facilities from 2010 to 2020.
According to analytical data, annual scientific demand for mineral fertilizers for the entire croplands of the republic is 2.5 million tons in gross weight (nitrogen 1.2 million tons, phosphate 1.3 million tons, potash 0.03 million tons) or 1.0 million tons in active ingredient. The Kazakhstani producers can provide only 40% of domestic scientific demand.
The data presented for the annual scientific demand for mineral fertilizers is not entirely correct, and represents the summary data. Any selected methodology for calculating the scientific demand of croplands in mineral fertilizers cannot be reliable since there is no reliable information about the soils condition at present.
3.2. Field tests
According to the results of many years of research conducted by scientists of the S. Seifullin KATU, it has been established that the crucial role in the formation of yields is played by: mineral nitrogen content before wheat plantings – N-NO3 in the 0–40 cm layer, mobile phosphorus in the 0–20 cm layer, its ratio and water availability.
In 2019, agrochemical monitoring was conducted at the demonstration plots, the results of which are presented in Tables 6 and 7.
The content of nitrate nitrogen in the 0–40 cm layer was high − 23.7 mg/kg of soil, which is quite acceptable for a fallow forecrop, refer to Table 6.
Table 6
Content of nitrate nitrogen in demonstration plots, mg/kg of soil
Number of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
Soil layer
|
N-NO3, mg/kg of soil
|
1
|
P0(without fertilizers)
|
0–20
|
29.9
|
20–40
|
17.4
|
0–40 (average)
|
23.7
|
According to the experimental evidence presented in Table 7, phosphorus content in the check of the experiment was low − 20.7 mg per kg of soil.
Table 7
Content of mobile phosphorus in the 0–20 cm layer in demonstration plots, mg/kg of soil
Number of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
P2O5, mg/kg of soil
|
1
|
P0(without fertilizers)
|
20.7
|
2
|
P60
|
27.1
|
3
|
P90
|
31.6
|
4
|
P1501
|
32.6
|
5
|
P1502
|
33.8
|
Based on the experimental evidence obtained by scientists of the S. Seifullin KATU over the multi-year period of experiments, in all years the highest yield of spring wheat was formed with the same content of Р2О5 in the soil – 35 mg/kg. The slight increase in mobile phosphorus content over 35 mg/kg had no effect on yield, but above 40 mg/kg has sharply reduced it. Based on the optimal level of P2O5 in the soil – 35 mg/kg, optimal amount was determined for the fertilizer needed for the experimental plot – P150.
According to the obtained yield, presented in Table 8, application of phosphorus fertilizers at the rate of P60, P90 and P150, has increased wheat grain yields to 33.2 dt/ha, 34.2 dt/ha and 38.1 dt/ha, respectively.
Table 8
Spring wheat yield at the demonstration plots, 2019
No. of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
Bunker weight, dt/ha
|
Content of impurities, %
|
Moisture, %
|
Refraction, %
|
Yields taking into account refraction, dt/ha
|
Р2О5, mg/kg
|
1
|
P0(without fertilizers)
|
26.5
|
0.16
|
18.5
|
4.66
|
25.3
|
20.7
|
2
|
P60
|
34.7
|
0.14
|
18.3
|
4.44
|
33.2
|
27.1
|
3
|
P90
|
35.7
|
0.14
|
18.1
|
4.24
|
34.2
|
31.6
|
4
|
P1501
|
36.7
|
0.16
|
18.2
|
4.36
|
35.1
|
32.6
|
5
|
P1502
|
39.7
|
0.14
|
17.8
|
3.92
|
38.1
|
33.8
|
Table 9 shows that the wheat had a good natural weight within 776–780 g/l, protein content has fallen within the limit of 14.17–15.45%, which corresponds to the worldwide standard. The content of gluten has increased from 20.2 to 31.8%. There is a clear relationship between the quality of spring wheat grain and the content of mobile phosphorus in the soil. With a low phosphorus content, content of gluten was very low, despite the good nitrogen supply.
Table 9
Quality of spring wheat by plots, 2019
No. of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
Р2О5 mg/kg
|
Natural weight, g/l
|
Protein, %
|
Crude gluten
|
Falling number, s
|
Content, %
|
FDM
|
1
|
P0(without fertilizers)
|
20.7
|
777
|
14.17
|
20.2
|
47.3
|
464.7
|
2
|
P60
|
27.1
|
776
|
14.47
|
26.72
|
34.4
|
459.7
|
4–5
|
P150
|
33.0
|
780
|
15.45
|
31.8
|
42.2
|
491.5
|
In the spring period, 2020, soil samples have been taken at all demonstration plots, with its subsequent analysis for the content of mobile phosphorus in the soil. In the fifth demonstration plot, phosphorus content was brought to an optimal level by applying additional 80 kg of active agent of ammophos. The accounting for the effects of fertilizers applied in 2019 was provided for the remaining demonstration plots. The results of the analysis are presented in Table 10.
Table 10
Content of mobile phosphorus in the demonstration plots in the layer 0–20 cm during the waiting period, 2020, mg/kg of soil
No. of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
Р2О5
|
1
|
P0
|
17,3
|
2
|
P60–afteraction
|
22,5
|
3
|
P90–afteraction
|
25,5
|
4
|
P1501– afteraction
|
31,2
|
5*
|
P1502– afteraction + P80
|
36,0
|
* additionally applied 80 kg of active agent of ammophos. |
According to the data presented in Table 11, yield of spring wheat in the fifth demonstration plot was 34.1 dt/ha, in afteraction on the fourth demonstration plot 31.1 dt/ha, in afteraction on the first demonstration plot (without fertilizer) – 18.4 dt/ha.
Table 11
Output yield of spring wheat in the demonstration plots, 2020
No. of plot
|
Applied, kg of active agent
|
Bunker weight, dt/ha
|
Content of impurities, %
|
Moisture, %
|
Refraction, %
|
Yields taking into account refraction, dt/ha
|
Р2О5, mg/kg
|
1
|
P0(without fertilizers)
|
18,2
|
0,6
|
12,3
|
1,1
|
18,4
|
17,3
|
2
|
P60–afteraction
|
24,4
|
0,5
|
12,1
|
1,4
|
24,7
|
22,5
|
3
|
P90– afteraction
|
26,41
|
0,8
|
11,5
|
1,7
|
26,9
|
25,5
|
4
|
P1501– afteraction
|
30,57
|
0,6
|
11,6
|
1,8
|
31,1
|
31,2
|
5*
|
P1502– afteraction + P80
|
33,44
|
0,5
|
11,6
|
1,9
|
34,1
|
36,0
|
* additionally applied 80 kg of active agent of ammophos. |
In Kazakhstan, there are no grain producers using the full range of precision farming systems, including the discriminatory application of fertilizers. There are only pilot projects on the basis of several organizations subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture. The most grain-producing countries have long been using the precision farming systems and get the high yields.
Kazakhstan lags far behind other countries in the use of mineral fertilizers, resulting in low yields. The high cost of imported mineral fertilizers and the lack of industrial capacity for production of mineral fertilizers to meet the needs of the domestic market are among the reasons of this situation.
If we compare the average yield of wheat with Canada, which has the same climatic conditions for grain production as Kazakhstan and actively uses the precision farming technology, it equals to 31 dt/ha, which is two and a half times higher than the yields in Kazakhstan. This comparison is not correct since the grain production in Kazakhstan is in degradation, and large volumes of production are conditioned by the large amount of croplands. Currently, use of modern precision farming systems, particularly the use of discriminatory application of fertilizers turns to be possible. Even for the use of basic systems of precision farming technology, it is necessary to have the appropriate material and technical base, which is not available in Kazakhstan.
The conducted analysis has showed that the statistical data does not reflect the real condition of croplands in Kazakhstan, and the ongoing research and experiments demonstrate the problem of extreme soil depletion and confirm the feasibility of mineral fertilization. 30 years of continuous use of croplands and lack of necessary soil maintenance, including the use of mineral fertilizers, has resulted in soil depletion. With a view to ensuring the soil fertility recovery, it is necessary to apply the prodigious amount of mineral fertilizers. Currently, more than 75%, and a year earlier more than 85%, of croplands in Kazakhstan have been not fertilized. The most part of production has been associated with ancient methods based on the “sown-harvested” principle.
This situation was caused by the low ethical values in society, resulting in negative consequences for the development of industry.
The high level of corruption had an adverse impact on the land distribution process. As a result, new landlords have been not professional farmers and had no special knowledge about the agriculture; most of them were the former Communist elites who used their position to enrich themselves (Spoor 1999; Toleubayev et al. 2010).
The same situation has occurred with the personnel in agriculture, starting with the senior executives, most of them were not professionals and did not have the specialized knowledge necessary to choose the right model of development of industry and efficient use of budgetary funds.
Very often, a change of Ministers of Agriculture was followed by a change of owners of major agricultural establishments. The regulatory legal acts issued by the Ministers of Agriculture and regulating the distribution of subsidies have issued according to the needs and existing material and technical base of the privileged owners of major agricultural enterprises, who were in one way or another associated with public servants. The subsidies did not always reach small producers; Ministry's budgetary funds often ran out.
The unsteady situation has resulted in high risks faced by grain producers, and based on the circumstances, making the greatest profit in the short, or at best in the medium term, has become the main goal of the owners of croplands. The state of uncertainty was a major factor in the lack of concern among the grain producers to invest in the renovation of material and technical base and to look after their land.
It is evident that the government intervention seems to be advisable to support the agricultural development, however, this is only possible through viable, accountable, and transparent policy.