Study design and setting
We conducted a retrospective cohort study on national hospital discharge databases. We reviewed discharges from acute inpatient care institutions between April 1st 2009 and March 31st 2012 for nine provinces and three territories, and between April 1st 2009 and March 31st 2011 for the province of Québec. CIHI provided all administrative and patient-level data.
Hospital selection
We included all Canadian acute care facilities with an emergency department and hospital-based acute inpatient care. We excluded cancer centres, children’s hospitals and heart institutes because they treat specific populations with very different case-mixes. For risk-adjustment purpose, hospitals were classified into one of four peer-groups (teaching, large community, medium community and small community) based on academic designation, patient complexity and volume (see Additional file 1).
Case selection
We included all patients discharged dead or alive from hospital during the study period if they met the following criteria: 1) Admission to hospital through the ED; 2) Discharge from hospital with one of the 37 mortality-related emergency-sensitive diagnosis groups captured in the ED-HSMR (see Additional file 2); 3) Age between 29 days and 120 years at hospital admission; 4) Hospital length of stay equal to or less than 365 days; 5) Canadian resident. Patients were excluded if: 1) they were deceased at ED arrival; and 2) they were discharged against medical advice. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were directly derived from the methodology employed by CIHI to calculate the overall Canadian HSMR.
Statistical Analysis
Characteristics of the institutions and patients
Where it appropriately applied, medians and interquartile ranges, means or proportions with 95% confidence intervals were used to describe the characteristics of the institutions and of the cases included. Unadjusted mortality rates for each one of the 37 emergency-sensitive diagnosis groups included in the ED-HSMR were calculated per hospital and per year of the study period.
ED-HSMR calculation
ED-HSMRs were calculated for the fiscal years (April to March) 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 with the following equation:
Actual number of deaths among patients with emergency-sensitive diagnosis groups in 2010-11 or 2011-12
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ x 100
Expected number of deaths among same patients based on mortality probabilities in the reference year (2009-10)
Expected deaths
We estimated the expected number of deaths in 2010-11 or 2011-12 using logistic regression models derived from the reference year (2009-10) for each hospital-peer group. After modelling mortality with different independent variables, the following covariates were retained in the final ED-HSMR predictive models: diagnosis groups, age (continuous), gender (dichotomous), in-hospital length of stay (6 groups: 1, 2, 3-9, 10-15, 16-21 and 22-365 days) and comorbidities (3 groups based on Charlson index score: Group 0 = score 0 (outside Québec) or scores 0 and 1 (Québec); Group 1 = scores 1 and 2 (outside Québec) or scores 2, 3 and 4 (Québec); Group 2 = scores 3 and more (outside Québec) or scores 5 and more (Québec); see Additional file 3). For managing missing data, we used a single imputation method, assigning most frequent values for categorical variables and medians, for continuous variables.
Probability of death at patient-level was calculated using the appropriate hospital-peer group specific model from the reference year. After conversion from the log odds of death (pdeath = elog odds of death / [1 + (elog odds of death)]), all individual patient probabilities were summed to get the expected number of deaths in a specific hospital, in 2010-11 or 2011-12. An ED-HSMR for a specific acute care facility was only calculated if more than 20 deaths were expected within the study year at the institution, as fewer deaths yield unreliable and volatile HSMR measures.(19)
Hospital-level and aggregated provincial ED-HSMRs
We report hospital-level ED-HSMRs through tables and caterpillar plots. Stratifications by peer-groups and provinces are graphically represented. Aggregated provincial ED-HSMR values were calculated by dividing the sum all observed (O) deaths with the sum of all expected (E) number of deaths of all institutions of a province or a territory (O/E x 100). All patients were included in aggregated measures, even those from hospitals with less than 20 expected deaths where no site-specific HSMR could be estimated. Analyses were performed using Stata version MP 11.2 (StataCorp, TX, USA).