Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa
Background Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected on February 14, 2020, the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13, 2020.
Methods We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020, by using the simple exponential growth model.
Results We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day (95%CI: 0.20 – 0.24), and the basic reproduction number, R0, to be 2.37 (95%CI: 2.22-2.51) based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.
Conclusion The initial growth of COVID-19 cases in Africa was rapid and showed large variations across countries. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning.
Trial registration: NA
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Posted 11 May, 2020
On 16 Jul, 2020
On 07 Jul, 2020
Received 27 May, 2020
On 25 May, 2020
Invitations sent on 04 May, 2020
On 25 Apr, 2020
On 24 Apr, 2020
On 24 Apr, 2020
On 11 Apr, 2020
Received 08 Apr, 2020
Received 07 Apr, 2020
On 07 Apr, 2020
On 07 Apr, 2020
Received 07 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
On 05 Apr, 2020
On 01 Apr, 2020
On 01 Apr, 2020
Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa
Posted 11 May, 2020
On 16 Jul, 2020
On 07 Jul, 2020
Received 27 May, 2020
On 25 May, 2020
Invitations sent on 04 May, 2020
On 25 Apr, 2020
On 24 Apr, 2020
On 24 Apr, 2020
On 11 Apr, 2020
Received 08 Apr, 2020
Received 07 Apr, 2020
On 07 Apr, 2020
On 07 Apr, 2020
Received 07 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
On 06 Apr, 2020
On 05 Apr, 2020
On 01 Apr, 2020
On 01 Apr, 2020
Background Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected on February 14, 2020, the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13, 2020.
Methods We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020, by using the simple exponential growth model.
Results We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day (95%CI: 0.20 – 0.24), and the basic reproduction number, R0, to be 2.37 (95%CI: 2.22-2.51) based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.
Conclusion The initial growth of COVID-19 cases in Africa was rapid and showed large variations across countries. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning.
Trial registration: NA
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3