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Research Article
Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa
Daihai He
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-654X
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
Background Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected on February 14, 2020, the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13, 2020.
Methods We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020, by using the simple exponential growth model.
Results We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day (95%CI: 0.20 – 0.24), and the basic reproduction number, R0, to be 2.37 (95%CI: 2.22-2.51) based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.
Conclusion The initial growth of COVID-19 cases in Africa was rapid and showed large variations across countries. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning.
Trial registration: NA
Keywords
COVID-19; reproduction number; pandemic; statistical modelling.
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 2
Posted 11 May, 2020
Published
On 16 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept
On 07 Jul, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 27 May, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 25 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 May, 2020
Editor assigned
On 25 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 24 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 24 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 11 Apr, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 08 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 07 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 07 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 01 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
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This preprint is under consideration at Infectious Diseases of Poverty. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa
Daihai He
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-654X
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 2
Posted 11 May, 2020
Published
On 16 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept
On 07 Jul, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 27 May, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 25 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 May, 2020
Editor assigned
On 25 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 24 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 24 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 11 Apr, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 08 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 07 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 07 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 01 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
Background Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected on February 14, 2020, the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13, 2020.
Methods We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020, by using the simple exponential growth model.
Results We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day (95%CI: 0.20 – 0.24), and the basic reproduction number, R0, to be 2.37 (95%CI: 2.22-2.51) based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.
Conclusion The initial growth of COVID-19 cases in Africa was rapid and showed large variations across countries. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning.
Trial registration: NA
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3