3.1. First Elements
The estimated the value of life of an individual with the same characteristics as the ones in the clinical trial is 127,696 dollars. Note that if an individual has ARDS and is treated with lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol, then the patients has 44.7 percent of chance of surviving11. Therefore, this individual ARDS patient’s expected value of life becomes 57,080 dollars. Equivalently, if an individual has ARDS and is treated with conventional low PEEP protocol, has 50.7 percent of chance of surviving. Hence, this individual ARDS patient’s expected value of life becomes 64,678 dollars.
The individual’s mortality-avoidance adjusted value of life corresponds to the difference between the expected value of life of an individual treated with conventional low PEEP protocol and the expected value of life of an individual treated with lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration one. It corresponds to 7,598 dollars.
As the number of people potentially affected in a year is equal to 80,486 individuals, the value of potential lives saved can be calculated. The value of potential lives saved is equal to 611,528,960 dollars per year.
3.2. Main Results
The first result presented in this subsection is the potential gross benefit of the trial. Table 1 shows that if the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs was 50 percent, then the potential gross benefit of the trial is around 305 millions of dollars. The pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs equal to 50 percent corresponds to the base case assumption of this study.
Table 2 presents the effective gross benefit of the trial for different fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver protocols.
Table 2 shows that if the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs and fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since ART became public are both 50 percent, then the effective gross benefit of the trial is around 152 millions of dollars.
The clinical trial costs amount to 1,326,411 dollars. Hence, the net benefit of the trial under the assumptions of Table 2 are described in Table 3 below.
Based on the base case assumptions that the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs and fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since the ART findings became public are both 50 percent, then the net benefit of the trial is around 151 millions of dollars.
Note also that if no ICUs have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since the ART findings became public, among the ones that used to adopt such protocol in ARDS patients, then effective gross benefit is zero (Table 2) and the net benefit is negative (Table 3). On the contrary, if the ART findings were implemented in all ICUs (100 percent) that previously used the lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol, then the net benefit of the trial would be approximately 304 millions of dollars.
Table 3 also shows that the results of the ART findings needs to be implemented in only 0.4 percent of ICUs that previously used the lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol for benefits to exceed costs (under the base case assumption that the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs was 50 percent).
Lastly, the benefit-cost ratio, which is the ratio between net benefit and the clinical trial costs, is computed. Table 4 shows that the benefit-cost ratio of the trial for different pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs and different fraction of ICUs that had stopped using high PEEP since the ART findings became public.
Table 4 shows that under the base case assumption (the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs and the fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since the ART findings became public are both 50 percent), the benefit-cost ratio is around 114 dollars. That corresponds to a public return of the trial of 114 dollars for every one dollar invested. Table 4 also shows that if the ART findings were implemented in all ICUs that previously used the lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol, then a return of 229.5 dollar for every one dollar invested.
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analyses are used to investigate what would happen to the results if major assumptions used in calculations were to change. The following assumptions were tested through sensitivity analyses: a different estimated number of people potentially affected (moderate to severe ARDS incidence) in a year, and different values of statistical life.
Different estimated number for people potentially affected in a year. A sensitivity analysis of the public return of the trial is conducted by using moderate and severe ARDS incidence rate obtained by Caser et al.17. They found that the annual incidence rate (per 100,000 person-year) of moderate and severe ARDS is 6.3.
Table S1 in the Supplementary shows that the results of the ART findings need to be implemented in only 2.6 percent of ICUs that previously used the lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol for benefits to exceed costs (assuming that pre-trial fraction of high PEEP in ICUs was 50 percent). It also shows that under the base case assumption, then the benefit-cost ratio is around 18 dollars. That corresponds to a public return of the trial of 18 dollars for every one dollar invested. This sensitive analysis shows that the public return of trial is still remarkably high even when considering a low incidence rate of moderate-to-severe ARDS.
Different Values of Statistical Life. Table 5 presents these different studies and provide country-specific references of the value of a statistical life. Brito18 estimated the value of statistical life is 173.128.13 dollars. Yet, Ferrari et al.19 estimated the VLS in Brazil is equal to 119.687.02.
Based on Ferrari et al.19 Value of Statistical Life, Table S2 presents the net benefit and the benefit-cost ratio of the trial for different fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since the ART’s findings became public.
Table S2 shows that the results of the ART findings need to be implemented in only 0.5 percent of ICUs that previously used the lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration protocol for benefits to exceed costs. It also shows that if the pre-trial fraction of high PEEP plus lung recruitment in ICUs and fraction of ICUs that have stopped using recruitment maneuver procedure since the ART findings became public are both 50 percent, then the benefit-cost ratio is around 107 dollars. This shows that the public return of trial using Ferrari et al.19 Value of Statistical Life has the same magnitude of the public return obtained in a previous subsection (the base case assumption).