7.1. Evaluation methods
The Differential Diagnosis (DDx) performance evaluated was as follows:
- Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases
- Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking
In this study, the evaluation method for DDx performance differs from previous articles (compared subjects: Physicians vs. CDSS; target cases: Actual cases in clinical practice).
The reasons are:
- The compared subjects: Our CDSS vs. the conventional CDSS
- The target cases: Rare and difficult-to-diagnose cases in clinical practice
For this reason, we used the cases from case reports adapted for our purposes rather than actual cases.
The case citation was from case reports of "The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)."
The cases used in the evaluation were as follows:
- Disease with characteristic symptoms
- Acute intermittent porphyria [21]
- Difficult-to-diagnose disease with few characteristic symptoms
- Acute HIV-1 infection [22]
- Case with diagnostic errors
- Subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella [23]
- DDx performance using the Gumbel Approximate NDCG loss
- Acute intermittent porphyria [21]
- Acute HIV-1 infection [22]
In the interest of fairness, these cases were not used when training the model.
7.2. Evaluation results and Discussion
7.2.1. Disease with characteristic symptoms
We evaluated the Differential Diagnostic (DDx) performance of the disease with characteristic symptoms.
The DDx of these diseases is manageable to a conventional CDSS.
The case we used was acute intermittent porphyria (AIP). [21]
In this system, the confirmed disease, in this case, is as follows:
- Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP)
Table 14 and Table 15 show the Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases.
Table 16 shows the Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking.
In both systems, the predicted ranking of confirmed disease was 1st
In the predicted diseases of the system (A-NDCG), the excluded diseases for AIP (ex: lead poisoning) were listed at the top of the list. [24], [25]
In this case, the predicted diseases of the system provided useful information for the DDx process by physicians.
Regarding "Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking," in both systems, at the point where the characteristic symptoms (hyponatremia and abnormal liver function) were inputted, the final confirmed disease was listed at the top of the list.
For the DDx of diseases with characteristic symptoms, we believe that the DDx performances of both systems are not significantly different.
7.2.2. Difficult-to-diagnose disease with few characteristic symptoms
We evaluated the Differential Diagnosis (DDx) performance of the difficult-to-diagnose disease with few characteristic symptoms.
The DDx of these diseases is difficult to conventional CDSS.
The case we used was acute HIV-1 infection. [22]
In HIV infection, acute meningitis symptoms may develop at the time of initial infection. [26]
In this system, the related diseases, including the confirmed disease, in this case, are as follows:
- Acute HIV-1 infection
- Acute viral meningitis
Therefore, these diseases were also defined as related diseases to confirmed diseases.
Table 17 and Table 18 show the Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases.
Table 19 shows the Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking.
In this system (A-NDCG), the predicted rankings of related diseases were as follows:
1st Acute HIV-1 infection
3rd Acute viral meningitis
However, in the conventional system (MSE), the predicted rankings of related diseases were less than the 20th.
Regarding "Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking," in this system (A-NDCG), at the point where few symptoms were inputted, related diseases were listed at the top of the list.
In this case, many of these symptoms are common in other diseases.
For the DDx of difficult-to-diagnose diseases with few characteristic symptoms, we believe that the DDx performances of the system are superior.
7.2.3. Case with diagnostic errors
Cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias, are among the most frequent causes of diagnostic errors. [27]
We believe that CDSS is useful for preventing diagnostic errors.
We evaluated the Differential Diagnostic (DDx) performance of a case with diagnostic errors.
The final confirmed disease of the case was subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella. [23]
The title of the case report is "Copycat." In this case, this patient had a history of HCV infection. Initially, due to confirmation bias, the case report's authors did not focus on the characteristic symptoms of endocarditis (heart murmur, purpura, etc.) but this HCV infection. As a result, they reported the misdiagnosed case as mixed cryoglobulinemia by HCV.
In this system, the related diseases, including the confirmed disease, in this case, are as follows:
- Subacute bacterial endocarditis (SBE)
- Acute bacterial endocarditis
- Infectious endocarditis
Therefore, these diseases were also defined as related diseases to confirmed diseases.
In addition, the misdiagnosed disease is as follows:
- Mixed cryoglobulinemia
Table 20, Table 21, Table 22, and Table 23 show the Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases.
We believe the causes of these results are biased information inputs by confirmation bias.
Despite the biased information, the system always listed the related disease at the top of the list. In the DDx process by physicians, if they had this information, we assume that their differential disease list would include not only HIV infection but also SBE.
We believe that the CDSS, including our system, will prevent diagnostic errors by physicians.
7.2.4. Differential diagnostic performance using the Gumbel Approximate NDCG loss
To evaluate the Differential Diagnostic (DDx) performance using Gumbel Approximate NDCG loss (G-A-NDCG), we compared the performance of G-A-NDCG and Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG).
The cases we evaluated were the following cases used before:
- Acute intermittent porphyria (AIP) [21]
- Acute HIV-1 infection [22]
Due to the memory space requirements when using G-A-NDCG, the batch size for training is set to 64.
Approximate NDCG loss (Batch size = 64) is referred to as "A-NDCG64."
Table 24, Table 25, Table 26, and Table 27 show the Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases.
From the predicted diseases of these cases, at this time, we do not believe there is a difference in DDx performance between G-A-NDCG and A-NDCG64.
As discussed before, due to the memory space requirements, we assume that the improvement of DDx performance when using G-A-NDCG was limited.
7.3. Figures and Tables
Table 14 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute intermittent porphyria:
A-NDCG
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Abdominal pain | | 1 | 1.41 | Acute intermittent porphyria |
2 | Constipation | | 2 | 1.21 | Diabetic coma imminent state |
3 | Hyponatremia | | 3 | 0.56 | Pesticide poisoning, Organophosphate toxicity |
4 | Abdominal tenderness | | 4 | 0.51 | Lead poisoning (almost chronic) |
5 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 5 | 0.45 | Heat stroke (hyperthermia) |
6 | Tachycardia | → | 6 | 0.31 | Cytomegalovirus infection |
7 | Photophobia | | 7 | 0.25 | Visceral rupture |
8 | Thirsty | | 8 | 0.16 | Hyponatremia |
9 | Borborygmus | | 9 | 0.13 | Portal vein obstruction |
10 | Dehydration | | 10 | 0.12 | Acetaminophen poisoning |
11 | Confusion | | | | ... |
Case: acute intermittent porphyria [21] |
Loss function: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Table 15 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute intermittent porphyria:
MSE
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Abdominal pain | | 1 | 9.25 | Acute intermittent porphyria |
2 | Constipation | | 2 | 8.17 | Enterohemorrhagic e. coli (EHEC) infection |
3 | Hyponatremia | | 3 | 7.64 | Visceral rupture |
4 | Abdominal tenderness | | 4 | 7.56 | Fibromyalgia (fibrositis) |
5 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 5 | 7.53 | Cancerous peritonitis |
6 | Tachycardia | → | 6 | 7.29 | Withdrawal symptoms of alcohol and drugs |
7 | Photophobia | | 7 | 7.28 | Colorectal cancer |
8 | Thirsty | | 8 | 7.26 | Irritable bowel syndrome, Functional dyspepsia (FD) |
9 | Borborygmus | | 9 | 7.23 | Drugs (laxatives, etc.) |
10 | Dehydration | | 10 | 7.07 | Eating disorder |
11 | Confusion | | | | ... |
Case: acute intermittent porphyria [21] |
Loss function: Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Table 16
Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking: Acute intermittent porphyria
| Inputted symptoms | Ranking | | |
| | Target disease | AIP | |
| | Loss function | A-NDCG | MSE |
1 | Abdominal pain | | --- | --- |
2 | Constipation | → | --- | --- |
3 | Hyponatremia | | 1 | 4 |
4 | Abdominal tenderness | →→ | 1 | 19 |
5 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 1 | 4 |
6 | Tachycardia | →→→ | 1 | 1 |
7 | Photophobia | | 1 | 1 |
8 | Thirsty | →→→→ | 1 | 1 |
9 | Borborygmus | | 1 | 1 |
10 | Dehydration | →→→→→ | 1 | 1 |
11 | Confusion | | 1 | 1 |
Case: acute intermittent porphyria [21] |
Target disease: acute intermittent porphyria (AIP)
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
---: 20th and lower
Table 17 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute HIV-1 infection:
A-NDCG
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Fever | | 1 | 1.61 | Acute HIV-1 infection |
2 | Headache | | 2 | 1.51 | Polyneuropathy |
3 | Sore throat | | 3 | 0.91 | Acute viral meningitis |
4 | Consciousness indistinctness | | 4 | 0.88 | West Nile fever |
5 | Chills | | 5 | 0.77 | Cat-scratch disease |
6 | Muscles ache | | 6 | 0.46 | Acute Q fever |
7 | Swallowing pain | → | 7 | 0.23 | Epidemic hepatitis A |
8 | Pharyngolaryngeal abnormality | | 8 | 0.21 | Chronic fatigue syndrome |
9 | Aphasia | | 9 | 0.13 | Sepsis |
10 | Apraxia | | 10 | 0.12 | Toxoplasmosis |
11 | Fatigue | | | | ... |
12 | Muscle weakness | | | | |
13 | Anorexia | | | | |
14 | Weight loss | | | | |
15 | Dementia | | | | |
Case: acute HIV-1 infection [22] |
Loss function: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Table 18 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute HIV-1 infection:
MSE
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Fever | | 1 | 10.16 | Epidemic hepatitis A |
2 | Headache | | 2 | 9.93 | Acute Q fever |
3 | Sore throat | | 3 | 9.75 | Acute pharyngitis |
4 | Consciousness indistinctness | | 4 | 9.66 | Polyneuropathy |
5 | Chills | | 5 | 9.28 | Lymphocytic choriomeningitis |
6 | Muscles ache | | 6 | 9.17 | Herpes labialis |
7 | Swallowing pain | → | 7 | 8.99 | Side effects of interferon |
8 | Pharyngolaryngeal abnormality | | 8 | 8.86 | Sepsis |
9 | Aphasia | | 9 | 8.74 | Chronic fatigue syndrome |
10 | Apraxia | | 10 | 8.73 | Retropharyngeal infection |
11 | Fatigue | | | | ... |
12 | Muscle weakness | | | | |
13 | Anorexia | | | | |
14 | Weight loss | | | | |
15 | Dementia | | | | |
Case: acute HIV-1 infection [22] |
Loss function: Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Table 19
Inputted symptoms and the target disease's ranking: Acute HIV-1 infection
| Inputted symptoms | Ranking | |
| | Target diseases | HIV-1 | | AVM | |
| | Loss functions | A-NDCG | MSE | A-NDCG | A-NDCG |
1 | Fever | | --- | --- | --- | --- |
2 | Headache | | --- | --- | 9 | 1 |
3 | Sore throat | | 14 | --- | 10 | --- |
4 | Consciousness indistinctness | → | --- | --- | 3 | 10 |
5 | Chills | | --- | --- | 2 | 9 |
6 | Muscles ache | →→ | --- | --- | 3 | --- |
7 | Swallowing pain | | 14 | --- | 5 | --- |
8 | Pharyngolaryngeal abnormality | →→→ | --- | --- | 9 | --- |
9 | Aphasia | | --- | --- | 6 | --- |
10 | Apraxia | →→→→ | --- | --- | 2 | 19 |
11 | Fatigue | | --- | --- | 2 | --- |
12 | Muscle weakness | →→→→→ | 12 | --- | 2 | --- |
13 | Anorexia | | 12 | --- | 1 | --- |
14 | Weight loss | | 1 | --- | 3 | --- |
15 | Dementia | | 1 | --- | 3 | --- |
Case: acute HIV-1 infection [22] |
Target diseases: acute HIV-1 infection (HIV-1)
acute viral meningitis (AVM)
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
---: 20th and lower
Table 20 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella:
In progress: n = 5
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Weight loss | | 1 | 0.78 | Hodgkin lymphoma |
2 | Itching | | 2 | 0.60 | Heart tumor |
3 | Fatigue | | 3 | 0.41 | Mitral valve stenosis |
4 | Tachypnea | | 4 | 0.32 | Infectious endocarditis |
5 | Heart murmur | | 5 | 0.17 | Aortic stenosis |
6 | | | 6 | 0.16 | Acute Q fever |
7 | | | 7 | 0.04 | Hyperthyroidism |
8 | | | 8 | 0.03 | Immunoblastic lymphadenopathy |
9 | | → | 9 | 0.03 | Hepatic amyloidosis |
10 | | | 10 | 0.03 | Hashimoto's disease and autoimmune thyroiditis |
11 | | | | | … |
12 | | | | | |
13 | | | | | |
14 | | | | | |
15 | | | | | |
16 | | | | | |
17 | | | | | |
18 | | | | | |
Case: subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella [23] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
In progress: n = 5
Table 21 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella:
In progress: n = 9
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Weight loss | | 1 | 1.61 | Zieve syndrome |
2 | Itching | | 2 | 1.35 | Disseminated intravascular coagulation |
3 | Fatigue | | 3 | 0.94 | Chronic hepatitis |
4 | Tachypnea | | 4 | 0.77 | Wilson's disease |
5 | Heart murmur | | 5 | 0.76 | Acute hepatitis |
6 | Purpura | | 6 | 0.69 | Hepatic amyloidosis |
7 | Anemia | | 7 | 0.59 | Infectious endocarditis |
8 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 8 | 0.59 | (Compensated/ uncompensated) liver cirrhosis |
9 | Hyperbilirubinemia | → | 9 | 0.53 | Subacute bacterial endocarditis |
10 | | | 10 | 0.53 | Gastric cancer |
11 | | | | | … |
12 | | | | | |
13 | | | | | |
14 | | | | | |
15 | | | | | |
16 | | | | | |
17 | | | | | |
18 | | | | | |
Case: subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella [23] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
In progress: n = 9
Table 22 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella:
In progress: n = 14
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Weight loss | | 1 | 1.78 | Subacute bacterial endocarditis |
2 | Itching | | 2 | 1.35 | Hepatic amyloidosis |
3 | Fatigue | | 3 | 1.32 | Chronic hepatitis |
4 | Tachypnea | | 4 | 1.29 | Infectious endocarditis |
5 | Heart murmur | | 5 | 1.16 | Disseminated intravascular coagulation |
6 | Purpura | | 6 | 1.15 | Mixed cryoglobulinemia |
7 | Anemia | | 7 | 1.10 | Acute bacterial endocarditis |
8 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 8 | 0.99 | Idiopathic (or secondary) retroperitoneal fibrosis |
9 | Hyperbilirubinemia | → | 9 | 0.98 | Tuberculosis or syphilis |
10 | ESR elevation | | 10 | 0.90 | Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura |
11 | RA/RF positive | | | | … |
12 | Hematuria | | | | |
13 | Bacteriuria | | | | |
14 | Proteinuria | | | | |
15 | | | | | |
16 | | | | | |
17 | | | | | |
18 | | | | | |
Case: subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella [23] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
In progress: n = 14
Table 23 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella:
Final: n = 18
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Weight loss | | 1 | 2.70 | Mixed cryoglobulinemia |
2 | Itching | | 2 | 2.62 | Chronic hepatitis |
3 | Fatigue | | 3 | 2.03 | Subacute bacterial endocarditis |
4 | Tachypnea | | 4 | 1.48 | Hepatic amyloidosis |
5 | Heart murmur | | 5 | 1.47 | Rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis syndrome |
6 | Purpura | | 6 | 1.34 | Acute bacterial endocarditis |
7 | Anemia | | 7 | 1.27 | Infectious endocarditis |
8 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 8 | 0.94 | Polyarteritis nodosa |
9 | Hyperbilirubinemia | → | 9 | 0.78 | Autoimmune hemolytic anemia |
10 | ESR elevation | | 10 | 0.75 | Disseminated intravascular coagulation |
11 | RA/RF positive | | | | … |
12 | Hematuria | | | | |
13 | Bacteriuria | | | | |
14 | Proteinuria | | | | |
15 | Hypocomplementemia | | | | |
16 | Angiitis | | | | |
17 | Nephritis | | | | |
18 | Animal Origin Infections | | | | |
Case: subacute bacterial endocarditis caused by bartonella [23] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Final: n = 18
Table 24 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute intermittent porphyria:
G-A-NDCG
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Abdominal pain | | 1 | 5.86 | Acute intermittent porphyria |
2 | Constipation | | 2 | 5.46 | Diabetic coma imminent state |
3 | Hyponatremia | | 3 | 2.73 | Heat stroke (hyperthermia) |
4 | Abdominal tenderness | | 4 | -0.64 | Lead poisoning (almost chronic) |
5 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 5 | -2.97 | Drug side effects |
6 | Tachycardia | → | 6 | -3.85 | Hyponatremia |
7 | Photophobia | | 7 | -4.01 | Intussusception |
8 | Thirsty | | 8 | -4.51 | Genuine epilepsy |
9 | Borborygmus | | 9 | -4.57 | Visceral rupture |
10 | Dehydration | | 10 | -4.75 | Dumping syndrome |
11 | Confusion | | | | … |
Case: acute intermittent porphyria [21] |
Loss functions: Gumbel Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Batch size: 64
Table 25 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute intermittent porphyria:
A-NDCG64
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Abdominal pain | | 1 | 4.88 | Acute intermittent porphyria |
2 | Constipation | | 2 | 0.31 | Diabetic coma imminent state |
3 | Hyponatremia | | 3 | -0.15 | Visceral rupture |
4 | Abdominal tenderness | | 4 | -1.92 | Heat stroke (hyperthermia) |
5 | Elevated serum liver enzyme | | 5 | -2.19 | (Tumor-related) syndrome of inappropriate secretion of ADH |
6 | Tachycardia | → | 6 | -2.45 | Pesticide poisoning, organophosphate toxicity |
7 | Photophobia | | 7 | -2.59 | Lead poisoning (almost chronic) |
8 | Thirsty | | 8 | -2.90 | Acetaminophen poisoning |
9 | Borborygmus | | 9 | -4.01 | Hyponatremia |
10 | Dehydration | | 10 | -4.59 | Withdrawal symptoms of alcohol and drugs |
11 | Confusion | | | | … |
Case: acute intermittent porphyria [21] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG64)
Batch size: 64
Table 26 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute HIV-1 infection:
G-A-NDCG
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Fever | | 1 | 0.74 | Acute HIV-1 infection |
2 | Headache | | 2 | -0.95 | Herpes labialis |
3 | Sore throat | | 3 | -0.96 | (Idiopathic) normal pressure hydrocephalus |
4 | Consciousness indistinctness | | 4 | -1.18 | Histoplasmosis |
5 | Chills | | 5 | -3.34 | Polyneuropathy |
6 | Muscles ache | | 6 | -3.86 | Polymyalgia rheumatica |
7 | Swallowing pain | → | 7 | -4.85 | West Nile fever |
8 | Pharyngolaryngeal abnormality | | 8 | -5.16 | Side effects of interferon |
9 | Aphasia | | 9 | -5.51 | Chronic fatigue syndrome |
10 | Apraxia | | 10 | -5.58 | Cat-scratch disease |
11 | Fatigue | | | | … |
12 | Muscle weakness | | | | |
13 | Anorexia | | | | |
14 | Weight loss | | | | |
15 | Dementia | | | | |
Case: acute HIV-1 infection [22] |
Loss functions: Gumbel Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Batch size: 64
Table 27 Inputted symptoms and predicted diseases:
Acute HIV-1 infection:
A-NDCG64
| Inputted symptoms | | | Scores | Predicted diseases |
1 | Fever | | 1 | 1.39 | Acute HIV-1 infection |
2 | Headache | | 2 | -0.25 | West Nile fever |
3 | Sore throat | | 3 | -0.36 | Sepsis |
4 | Consciousness indistinctness | | 4 | -1.45 | Polyneuropathy |
5 | Chills | | 5 | -2.74 | Chronic subdural hematoma |
6 | Muscles ache | | 6 | -2.94 | Meningitis or encephalitis |
7 | Swallowing pain | → | 7 | -3.08 | Cat-scratch disease |
8 | Pharyngolaryngeal abnormality | | 8 | -3.15 | Lymphocytic choriomeningitis |
9 | Aphasia | | 9 | -4.28 | Autonomic imbalance |
10 | Apraxia | | 10 | -4.53 | Addison's disease |
11 | Fatigue | | | | … |
12 | Muscle weakness | | | | |
13 | Anorexia | | | | |
14 | Weight loss | | | | |
15 | Dementia | | | | |
Case: acute HIV-1 infection [22] |
Loss functions: Approximate NDCG loss (A-NDCG)
Batch size: 64