In recent times, environmental conditions have shown increased deterioration. For instance, the year 2021 alone had an average global temperature of about 1.110C; global temperature data from 2015 to 2021 persistently climbed above 10C, which exceeded the pre-industrial levels (Aladejare, 2022a). A notable culprit for this critical ecological condition is the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These GHG emissions result from human activities and permeate the atmosphere, especially from the quest to industrialise. It is on record that the growing scales of manufacturing activities are further amplifying the scales of GHG in the environment (Liu et al., 2018; Haseeb et al., 2020). Aside from the release of toxic particles creating palpable unbalance environmental conditions, they further interrupt biological conditions by causing contamination through chemical agents and energy particles (Zubair et al., 2017). These detrimental constituents emerge and reach the atmosphere through industrial sites emitting toxic smoke, vapour, and gases. The presence of these substances in the atmosphere triggers climatic changes and also harms the ecosystem.
Natural resources essential for industrial growth contribute to ecological degradation through destructive extractive processes. The quest for industrialisation has led to significant extraction of natural resources with consequential harmful environmental effects (Aladejare, 2022b). For instance, the extraction of non-renewable natural resources in minerals, crude oil, and natural gas is known to degrade the environment (Majeed et al., 2021; Xue et al., 2021; Aladejare, 2022a,c; Ganda, 2022; Adekoya et al., 2022; Adebayo et al., 2022). Another environmental challenge from industrialisation is the growing paradigm shift, especially in developing countries with social and economic potentialities from rural to urban areas. While the developed countries continue to intensify their degree of urbanisation, their developing counterparts have been experiencing rising rural-urban migrations (Salahuddin et al., 2019; Kundu, 2020; Quito et al., 2022; Yang and Khan, 2022). Such rapid urbanisation can be environmentally harmful if not properly managed.
Similarly, globalisation encourages advanced and developing countries to continue integrating due to the industrialisation drive. National economies are by the day knitted increasingly with other countries than ever before. The neoliberal stand has been that globalisation has been more beneficial than adverse in its effects, particularly from the lens of declining poverty and income inequality in developing nations. However, globalisation has also played an exacerbating role in ecological deterioration through the transfer of "dirty technology" from developed to developing countries for industrialisation. Hence, its ecological impact and consequences still generate debates from interested stakeholders. Also, industrialisation cannot occur without the required human capital investment. The rewards from such investment include quality human resources, improved economy, higher income, and better ability to create wealth (Opoku and Aluko, 2021). Thus, just as a country's industrialisation is significantly linked to human capital development, general policies and strategies can also enhance or reduce ecological atrophy.
The African continent has its fair share of the adverse effects of global warming arising from increasing ecological degradation. Many parts of the continent have recently been exposed to rising temperatures, sea levels, poor rainfalls, and extreme climatic conditions. These factors are exacerbating the threat to socioeconomic development, food and water supply, as well as human health and safety in the continent (WMO, 2020). Future predictions for the continent hold no respite by painting a gloomy ecological picture. For instance, it is predicted that by 2024, most Africa should expect further temperature rise above 20C, diminishing rainfall in North and Southern Africa, and flooding in the Sahel region (WMO, 2020). Aside from its mineral wealth, Africa is well-endowed in agricultural resources, and agriculture serves as the mainstay of the continent's livelihood (FAO, 2021). However, the current population of undernourished people in the drought-invested sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has escalated by 45.6% since 2012 (FAO, 2021). Consequently, Africa's environmental space has become vulnerably threatened by increasing pollution arising from notable human activities for survival.
Hence, this study analysed Africa's long-term ecological response to these rising cogent industrialisation drivers, including manufacturing activities, resource exploration, urbanisation, income growth, globalisation, and human capital development. Industrialisation is essential for sustained-inclusive growth in African countries. Industrial growth can be rewarding by employment creation, improved productivity and workforce capacities, and initiating novel equipment and techniques. An industrialised Africa is believed to be the answer to its poverty eradication quest through growth in employment and wealth creation (UNIDO, 2021). However, industrialisation can also be environmentally depreciating through its drivers. Thus, ecological sustainability may be jeopardised in attaining economic modernisation.
Africa has begun to experience the effects of industrial growth. Many countries have been experiencing a stable expansion of manufacturing value added. For instance, in 2021, South Africa, Rwanda, and Nigeria, had manufacturing outputs expand by 39.3%, 30.2%, and 4.6%, respectively (UNIDO, 2021). If these expansions are not environmentally sustainable, the continent's future prosperity path may be bleak. Industrialisation drives within and outside Africa and also heighten the demand for natural resources. Africa's overwhelming extractive sector is estimated to account for about 30% of the world's minerals reserves (UNEP, 2022); likewise, the continent houses 40% of the world's gold deposits and about 90% of the world's chromium and platinum (Aladejare, 2020a; UNEP, 2022). Furthermore, the continent's oil and natural gas endowments account for about 12% and 8% of the world's total reserves, respectively (UNEP, 2022). Increased exploration and exploitation of Africa's natural wealth with poor environmentally-friendly technologies is emboldening its ecological atrophy (Aladejare, 2022a).
The continent is also experiencing rising urbanisation due to the industrialisation drive. It is estimated that Africa will possess the highest urban growth rate in the world by 2050 (OECD/SWAC, 2020). However, urban agglomerations could emerge due to improper planning, which can pose future ecological threats to the continent. In addition, Africa has the most youthful population in the world; with an average population growth of 2.7% per annum (WDI, 2022), human resource is the continent's greatest industrial asset. Nevertheless, there is a shortage of quality human resources due to inadequate learning outcomes, high adult mortality and morbidity, a mismatch between labour market requirements and education outcomes, lack of government support, etc. (Woldemichael and Shimeles, 2019). These human capital challenges can result in undue environmental demands and jeopardise ecological sustainability.
It is noteworthy stating that extant studies on the subject matter for African economies are scant. Related studies have concentrated on developed economies (Yuan et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2021; Rahma et al., 2021; Nasir et al., 2021; Sarkodie, 2021; Usman et al., 2022a; etc.) and other developing economies (Liu et al., 2018; Kundu, 2020; Zafar et al., 2020; Haseeb et al., 2020; Wang and Li, 2021; Zahoor et al., 2022a,b; Gallego-Bono and Tapia-Baranda, 2022; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente, 2022; etc.). Others have also examined the effects in developed and developing countries (Gabriel and Ribeiro, 2019; Yang and Khan, 2022; Quito et al., 2022). To the best of our knowledge for Africa, the existing few include Mesagan et al. (2022a,b). However, they differed significantly from this study in their choice of indicators and estimation techniques. While Mesagan et al. (2022a) were interested in the corporate finance-industrialisation impact on the environment, Mesagan et al. (2022b) were concerned with the financial integration-industrialisation effect on environmental quality. Aside from both studies capturing industrial performance with manufacturing value-added, the ecological responses from other cogent determinants of industrialisation, such as natural resource wealth, urbanisation, globalisation, and human capital development, were ignored. Thus, this study extends the literature on this front.
The empirical inferences for this study were robustly derived through a battery of advance estimation techniques. They include second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests, generalised estimating equation (GEE), generalised least squares mixed effect model (GLMM), dynamic common correlated effect (DCCE), Driscoll-Kraay (D-K), and the panel corrected standard errors (PCSEs) methods. Applying these robust econometric approaches circumvented methodological challenges observed in prior studies regarding heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and heteroscedasticity. Notable findings from these methodologies revealed that an increase in manufacturing value-added, natural resources exploration, income growth, globalisation, and human capital diminishes ecological quality in Africa. However, urbanisation was found to be environmentally-enhancing.
The remainder of this research follows this order: the literature review is in Section 2; data and methodology in Section 3; empirical outcomes and discussion of findings in Section 4; and the conclusions and policy implications in Section 5.