This retrospective cohort study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Hyogo College of Medicine (#2566). We obtained clinical data of patients who underwent surgery at Surgical Center of Hyogo College of Medicine Hospital. As American Society of Anesthesiologists-physical status (ASA-PS) and preoperative CRP levels were reported to associate strongly with postoperative complications [14-17], we determined eligibility criteria for the present study as the following: age over 20 years, ASA-PS I–II, and preoperative CRP level <0.3 mg·dL-1. In a training cohort to develop the prediction model, patients who underwent elective mastectomy, spine surgery, laparoscopic surgery, open abdominal surgery, or thoracic surgery, were selected from November 2017 to December 2017, as CRP levels on POD1 were routinely measured after those surgeries. In two validation cohorts to verify the value of the prediction model, patients who underwent elective mastectomy (validation cohort A), and also patients who underwent elective laparoscopic or open abdominal surgery (validation cohort B), were selected from May 2018 to August 2018.
Perioperative management
All patients did not receive premedication. General anesthesia was induced with propofol, fentanyl and rocuronium, followed by insertion of a tracheal tube, and was maintained with sevoflurane / desflurane, fentanyl, rocuronium and a continuous infusion of remifentanil. The doses of remifentanil and fentanyl were adjusted to maintain mean blood pressure within a range of ± 20% of the pre-anesthesia level. Additional regional anesthesia was determined by anesthesiologists in charge. Bispectral index was maintained between 40 and 60 by adjusting the concentration of sevoflurane / desflurane. Rocuronium bromide was used for muscle relaxation during surgery, as needed. After surgery, continuous administration intravenous fentanyl, 25 – 50 μg.hr-1, was routinely performed until POD 1-2 for postoperative analgesia. Intravenous flurbiprofen axetil or acetaminophen was used for rescue analgesia after surgery.
Data collection
Information on serum concentrations of CRP before surgery and POD1, and complications occurring during hospitalization within 30 days after surgery were obtained from our institutional medical records. The normal range for CRP at our institution is below 0.3 mg·dL-1. Postoperative complications were graded according to the extended Clavien-Dindo classification [18]. Major complication was defined as the extended Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or greater.
Intraoperative nociceptive level
Figure 1 shows a typical anesthetic record, representing NR, SBP, HR, and PI during general anesthesia. The NR value typically decreases from 0.9 to 0.6-0.7 after induction of anesthesia, and then increases after tracheal intubation. At the time of skin incision, it increases again, then keeping around 0.7-0.9 during surgery. The NR value was calculated using the following hemodynamic equation: NR = -1 + 2 / (1 + exp (-0.01HR – 0.02SBP + 0.17PI)) [13]. NR value represents no nociceptive stimulus under 0.70, minor noxious stimulus like very small incision between 0.70 and 0.75, moderate noxious stimulus like laparoscopic surgery between 0.75 and 0.85, severe noxious stimulus like open abdominal surgery between 0.85and 0.90, and extreme noxious stimulus over 0.90. After we installed the equation of NR on our institutional anesthesia information managing system (ORSYS, PHILIPS, Amsterdam, Netherlands), the averaged value of NR data from the start to end of surgery (mean NR), which was considered the intraoperative nociceptive level, was obtained using the data-search software (Vi-Pros, Dowell, Sapporo, Japan) (Figure 1).
Statistics
All statistical testing was two-sided with a significance level of 5% and was performed using JMS Pro version 13.1.0 (SAS Institute Inc. Cary, NC, United States). To investigate the association between CRP levels on POD1 and preoperative/intraoperative variables (age, sex, BMI, ASA-PS, duration of operation, mean NR, and preoperative CRP level), we performed multiple linear regression analyses in the training cohort, and then developed the prediction model for CRP level on POD1. The prediction model was applied on two validation cohorts to evaluate its value using linear regression analysis between measured and predicted CRP levels. After 3 variables of BMI, duration of surgery, and mean NR were selected to construct the prediction model, we performed propensity score matching of patients who did and did not suffered major complications after surgery in the validation cohort B to confirm the associations between intraoperative nociceptive levels, postoperative CRP levels, and postoperative complications (Complication and Control groups, respectively). Propensity score was calculated by logistic regression analysis using age, BMI, ASA-PS, and duration of surgery as independent variables. Patients with major complications (Complication group) whose propensity scores deviated by more than 0.02 from those without major complications (Control group) were considered unmatched. The unpaired t-test, the chi-square test, the one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey’s test, or the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Mann-Whitney U-test, were used to compare appropriate variables. The prediction of major complications using this model was evaluated in the validation cohort B using a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.