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Research article
Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018
Chun-Quan Ou
Southern Medical University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6866-7213
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at BMC Public Health.
Background: This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008-2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention. Methods: A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. 7,265 individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days. Results: Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%-8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%-11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1-14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia. Conclusions: Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.
Keywords
Mortality, Seasonality, Children, China, Poisson model
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Posted 09 Jun, 2020
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On 16 Jul, 2020
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On 04 Jun, 2020
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Editor invited
On 03 Jun, 2020
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On 07 May, 2020
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Received 04 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 26 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 17 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 10 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Apr, 2020
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This preprint is under consideration at BMC Public Health. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research article
Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018
Chun-Quan Ou
Southern Medical University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6866-7213
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 2
Posted 09 Jun, 2020
Published
On 16 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 04 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 03 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 03 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 07 May, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 04 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 26 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 17 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 10 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 01 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 01 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at BMC Public Health.
Background: This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008-2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention. Methods: A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. 7,265 individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days. Results: Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%-8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%-11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1-14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia. Conclusions: Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.