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Research Article
COVID-19 Italian epidemic: quarantine with continuous spillover.
giannotta girolamo
Azienda Sanitaria Provinciale Vibo Valentia
Corresponding Author
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background. In December 2019, an epidemic started in China caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), probably derived from bats. The Italian COVID-19 epidemic begins on February 21, 2020.
Methods. We have collected and analyzed the data produced daily by the Civil Protection. We cataloged this data and produced tables and graphs to obtain dynamic curves for certain parameters. In addition, we also calculated the change in active cases with the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).
Findings. The number of total cases increased by about 40 times in the period 2-20 March (from 2,036 to 80,539). In the same period, the active cases increased by about 21 times (from 1,835 to 37,860). Active cases do not close quickly and remain open for a long time because those who enter in intensive care do not recover before 2-3 weeks. On March 19 Italy’s death toll surpasses China’s, becoming the country with the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world. On March 26 the deaths in Italy are more than the double of those of China (8,215 deaths in Italy, vis 3,287 deaths in China).
Conclusion. Poor management of medium cases, in accordance with WHO guidelines, inevitably leads to overload of intensive care units. The progression of clusters in Southern Italy is more pronounced in Campania, Puglia and Sicily. The main cause of the high mortality would be attributable to the collapse of the Italian health system.
Keywords
COVID-19, coronavirus, treatment, progression, quarantine management, Italy
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research Article
COVID-19 Italian epidemic: quarantine with continuous spillover.
giannotta girolamo
Azienda Sanitaria Provinciale Vibo Valentia
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 15 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background. In December 2019, an epidemic started in China caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), probably derived from bats. The Italian COVID-19 epidemic begins on February 21, 2020.
Methods. We have collected and analyzed the data produced daily by the Civil Protection. We cataloged this data and produced tables and graphs to obtain dynamic curves for certain parameters. In addition, we also calculated the change in active cases with the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).
Findings. The number of total cases increased by about 40 times in the period 2-20 March (from 2,036 to 80,539). In the same period, the active cases increased by about 21 times (from 1,835 to 37,860). Active cases do not close quickly and remain open for a long time because those who enter in intensive care do not recover before 2-3 weeks. On March 19 Italy’s death toll surpasses China’s, becoming the country with the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world. On March 26 the deaths in Italy are more than the double of those of China (8,215 deaths in Italy, vis 3,287 deaths in China).
Conclusion. Poor management of medium cases, in accordance with WHO guidelines, inevitably leads to overload of intensive care units. The progression of clusters in Southern Italy is more pronounced in Campania, Puglia and Sicily. The main cause of the high mortality would be attributable to the collapse of the Italian health system.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4