Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention.
To improve forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to investigate the numerical spread of SARS-CoV-2 and eradication pathways.
Using the SEIR model, and including measures, such as city closure and holiday extension policy taken by the Chinese government which effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission R0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 0·476 / 6·66 in Wuhan, 0·359 / 5·03 in Korea, 0·400 / 5·60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines can greatly alleviate the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming the isolation rate alpha is 0·30 in Wuhan. If quarantine measures were taken from Mar 10, 2020 and the quarantine rate of alpha was also 0·3, the final number of infected people might be 11,426 in South Korea, and 147,142 in Italy.
Our mathematical models propose that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic thinking, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 medicine and vaccination, and some measures including city closure and holiday policy should be taken for SARS-CoV-2 eradication.