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Using an initial manifold approach, an ensemble forecast methodology is shown to simultaneously increase lead and realizable skill in long-range forecasting of monsoon over continental India. Initial manifold approach distinguishes the initial states that have coherence from a collection of unrelated states. In this work, an optimized and validated variable resolution general circulation model is being adopted for long range forecasting of monsoon using the multi-lead ensemble methodology. In terms of realizable skill (as against potential) at resolution (~ 60km) and lead (2–5 months) considered here the present method performs very well. The skill of the improved methodology is significant, capturing 9 of the 12 extreme years of monsoon during 1980–2003 in seasonal (June-August) scale. 8-member ensemble average hindcasts carried out for realizable skill with lead of 2 (for June) to 5 (for August) months and an optimum ensemble is presented.
Keywords
monsoon variability, initial manifold approach
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View the published article at Theoretical and Applied Climatology.
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Posted 09 Mar, 2021
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Editorial decision: Accept as is
On 09 Mar, 2021
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On 17 Feb, 2021
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On 11 Feb, 2021
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Subject Areas
Climatology
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See the published version of this preprint at Theoretical and Applied Climatology.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Theoretical and Applied Climatology.
Version 1
Posted 09 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept as is
On 09 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 17 Feb, 2021
First submitted
On 11 Feb, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Climatology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Theoretical and Applied Climatology.
Using an initial manifold approach, an ensemble forecast methodology is shown to simultaneously increase lead and realizable skill in long-range forecasting of monsoon over continental India. Initial manifold approach distinguishes the initial states that have coherence from a collection of unrelated states. In this work, an optimized and validated variable resolution general circulation model is being adopted for long range forecasting of monsoon using the multi-lead ensemble methodology. In terms of realizable skill (as against potential) at resolution (~ 60km) and lead (2–5 months) considered here the present method performs very well. The skill of the improved methodology is significant, capturing 9 of the 12 extreme years of monsoon during 1980–2003 in seasonal (June-August) scale. 8-member ensemble average hindcasts carried out for realizable skill with lead of 2 (for June) to 5 (for August) months and an optimum ensemble is presented.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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