As an emerging industry, e-commerce and modern logistics industry are an important part of the regional economy, and there is a strong correlation between the two. On the one hand, the development of e-commerce and modern logistics has a significant contribution to the economic development of a region; On the other hand, the development of regional economy can promote the development of e-commerce and modern logistics industry, and ultimately determine the development level of e-commerce and modern logistics.Freight volume is the most important indicator of logistics demand, which can reflect the scale of logistics market demand from the totalled-commerce transaction volume as an input factor of economic growth, the change in e-commerce transaction volume will be reflected in the change in freight volume.
As one of the most developed regions in China, the development of the e-commerce industry and the modern logistics industry, the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban economic circle has already reached a certain scale and level. The development of e-commerce industry and modern logistics also contributes to the economic growth of these regions. This chapter will analyse the contribution of e-commerce and modern logistics development region to its economic growth.
5.1 General introduction
The convenience of transportation provides the basis and guarantee for the smooth progress of e-commerce transactions. In terms of highways, the inter-regional expressways that have been completed and opened to traffic mainly include: Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, Shanghai-Hangzhou Expressway, Human Expressway, Ning nan Expressway, and 104 National Highway connecting Beijing-Jinan-Nanjing-Guangzhou; In terms of railways, the main railway lines are: Shanghai-Nanjing Railway, Shanghai-Hangzhou Railway, Hangzhou-Ningbo Railway, Zhejiang-Jiangxi Railway, Xuan hang Railway, and Mingling Railway. And in the transportation mode of high-speed rail trains, it provides a quick and cheap logistics choice for online trading of some fresh products. In terms of coastal ports . The port is above the seaport. The north wing includes six major inland river ports: Nanjing Port, Zhenjiang Port, Jiangyin Port, Zhangjiagang Port and Nantong Port. The south wing mainly includes ports such as Ningbo Port and Zhoushan Port. The above-mentioned overseas Takahashi Logistics Centre, Shanghai Pudong Airport Logistics Centre, Nanjing Longton Port Integrated Logistics Park, Hangzhou Modern Canal Logistics Park and other logistics Centre provide the foundation for the vigorous development of modern logistics.
5.2 Contribution analysis
Increasing the volume of e-commerce transactions, increasing the volume of freight, and accelerating the turnover rate of logistics are the key to improving the speed and quality of regional economic operations as a whole. Therefore, we can reflect the development trend of e-commerce and logistics industry by establishing a trend model of e-commerce transaction volume and freight volume. Using the least squares method (Equation 1), establish a trend model for e-commerce transaction volume and freight volume:
As shown in Figure 4, the freight volume showed a clear upward trend over time. According to the data of freight volume, using SPSS19.0 to establish a linear regression model, we can get the regression equation of freight volume and e-commerce transaction volume:
We need to test the above model. From the regression results, the sample correlation coefficient, the fitting coefficient, the degree of fitting is very high, and the representativeness of the regression equation is strong. In addition, since the sum of squared residuals (the sum of the squares of the differences between the sample values and the predicted values) and the sum of the squares of the regressions (the sum of the squared values of the predicted values and the mean values) are independent of each other, the sum of the squares of the total deviations is given under given sample conditions. (The sum of the squares of the difference between the sample value and the mean value) is fixed. The larger the square of the regression is, the larger the value of the F statistic used in the test is, the larger the value of the F statistic used for the test, the amount of freight and the amount of e-commerce transaction and time, the more linear the correlation is. After calculation, the value of the F statistic used in the test is 228.942, and the associated probability value indicates that the regression model established under the condition of the significance level of 0.05 is significant, that is, the linear regression model is reasonable.From the regression equation, the regression coefficients of the regression model are 5281.3827 and 10221.293, which indicates that the freight volume is increasing by an average of 1,021,293,300 tons per year, and the e-commerce transaction volume is increasing at an average annual rate of 528,138,770 yuan.
The development of the regional logistics industry has a significant contribution to the economic development of the entire economic region. Here, this study selects GDP as the explanatory variable, representing the level of economic development; Taking freight volume as an explanatory variable, it represents the development level of the logistics industry. By establishing a regression model of GDP to freight volume and e-commerce transaction volume, it reflects the contribution of regional logistics and e-commerce to the economic growth. Similarly, the regression model of GDP for e-commerce transaction volume and freight volume is:
The relationship between e-commerce transaction volume and freight volume is shown in Figure 5.
As can be seen from Figure 5, there is a significant positive correlation between GDP and freight volume and e-commerce transaction volume. This shows that increasing the volume of goods and e-commerce in the whole society, and carrying out regional logistics activities and e-commerce activities will contribute to the economic development. According to the data of freight volume, using SPSS19.0 to establish a linear regression model, we can get the regression equation of GDP region as:
The above model is tested. From the regression results, the sample correlation coefficient , the fitting coefficient , and the degree of fitting are very high. In addition, the value of the F statistic used for the calculation test is 116.394, accompanied by the probability value , indicating that the established regression model is reasonable under the condition that the significance level is 0.05.It can be seen from Equation 4 that increasing the freight volume and e-commerce business and vigorously developing the regional logistics industry and e-commerce will contribute to the national economic growth. Through the above two models, we can see that because the located in the eastern coastal areas of China, it has obvious geographical advantages and economic development advantages. Therefore, the development of the logistics industry region has been developed earlier and has formed a certain scale, which has a certain contribution to the economic development of the region. Especially in recent years, the development of the logistics industry region has played an important role in the rapid development of the regional economy.
5.3 Analysis of the Differences in Regional Logistics and E-Commerce Contribution to Economic Growth
At present, the development of the logistics industry region has achieved certain achievements and has contributed to the growth of GDP. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Shanghai Modern Logistics Industry", "Jiangsu Province Modern Logistics Industry Development Plan", "Working Situation of Zhejiang Logistics Office in 2017", "China Logistics Development Report (2016-2017)", " Calculation of relevant data of Shanghai Statistical Yearbook (2017), Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (2017), Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook (2017), and 2016-2017 China E-Commerce Development Index Report, A comparison chart of the contribution regional logistics and e-commerce and other service industries to GDP growth is shown in Figure 6.
It can be seen from Figure 6 that from the perspective of the added value of the logistics industry and e-commerce business as a percentage of GDP, regional logistics and e-commerce have contributed to the growth of GDP and greatly exceeded other service industries. In addition, we can calculate the contribution rate of logistics industry and e-commerce to GDP growth. Assume that the combined effect of the growth of the various sectors of the national economy and the result is the growth of GDP in the whole society. The impact of various sectors on GDP is directly proportional to the proportion of GDP in the sector to the GDP of the whole society. Then define the contribution rate of the logistics industry to GDP growth as shown in Equation 5:
According to the above formula, the GDP of the logistics industry is represented by the GDP of the transportation, warehousing and postal and telecommunications industries (or by transportation, warehousing and postal services). The GDP of e-commerce transactions represents the GDP of e-commerce. According to the relevant data of 2010-2017 China Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Statistical Yearbook (2017), Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (2017) and Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook (2017), The result is shown in Figure 7.
In summary, the current logistics industry and e-commerce region have contributed to the growth of GDP, and in terms of the proportion of industrial added value to GDP, its contribution exceeds that of other service industries. The regional logistics industry and e-commerce belong to the service industry in the tertiary industry, and the optimization of industrial structure is measured by the development level of the tertiary industry. Therefore, to examine the proportion of the added value of the logistics industry and e-commerce region in the tertiary industry, we can find out the contribution of regional logistics to optimizing the industrial structure.
From any angle, the role of e-commerce and modern logistics in the development of the economy can be considered significant. As one of the important drivers of economic growth, the role of investment cannot be ignored. China is currently in a critical period of economic transformation. The role of the other party's openness in regional economic development is also significant. In the absence of domestic demand, the development of China's economy must be integrated into the development of the world economy. Under this circumstance, modern logistics and e-commerce are very important. Trade agreements and trade disputes in different regions of the world have escalated, and vying for the world's markets is an important means of upgrading the country's economy. China has always attached importance to foreign trade, and we cannot do without the positive impact that opening up has brought to our own economic development. Differences in the degree of openness of each other in different regions will affect the level of local economic development. The construction of the e-commerce network is based on the Internet. The original business model is based on the individual's development of the customer group, and establishes business relationships through communication and contact. The openness of e-commerce to the customer base is based on the network, and naturally there are large-scale potential customers. As long as the attention is paid on the Internet platform, the number of customers will be geometrically long. For example, the rise of Haiti Store opened the offline stores to the Internet, which made the original smaller shops face a wider customer base, thus promoting the expansion and development of business scale. The development of e-commerce has automatically led to the development of the offline logistics industry, thus complementing each other, promoting each other and developing together.