This study has aimed to contribute to the growing field of research in risk perception of earthquake disasters, by providing evidence on the determinants of risk perception, revealing critical knowledge with respect to vulnerable population groups, in order to strengthen civil protection earthquake policies in one of the most earthquake prone areas in Europe: the Corinthiakos Gulf in Greece.
The present study on aggregate revealed that population living in Corinthiakos Gulf presented moderate earthquake risk perception levels not compatible to the seismicity and disaster experience of the localities in question. Even more, inhabitants in the municipality of Nafpaktia reported, notably, the lowest score of the entire study area. This may well be explained by the fact that the Nafpaktia community did not experience any recent major catastrophic earthquake. Contrary to Nafpaktia, in 1981, the municipality of Corinth was experienced a devastating earthquake (Ms = 6.7R, 6.4R, 6.3R) causing great damages and human losses (Papazachos et al., 1984; Bernard et al., 1997). The same applies to the municipality of Aigialeia that in 1995 was also hit by a 6.2R catastrophic earthquake. However, the low earthquake risk perception in Nafpaktia is still requires further study, taking into account the repeatedly recorded seismic events affecting this area during the last decade (Mesimeri et al., 2018; Kaviris et al., 2021).
Regarding the demographic, socio-economic and built-environment determinants of earthquake risk perception, the study revealed that older participants had higher earthquake risk perception attitudes, irrespective of their sex, education and economic status, whereas younger people lack risk perception, and this was more evident among younger men. Moreover, stratified analysis by income revealed that higher household income status was associated with reduced earthquake risk perception. Furthermore, inhabitants leaving in newly constructed buildings tend to present a lower earthquake risk perception status. Additionally, the study indicated that the recorded socio-economic determinants of education, household structure, savings and trust in civil protection authorities along with the build-environment determinant of building earthquake insurance were not significantly associated with earthquake risk perception. Finally, safety information-knowledge of individuals had a positive correlation with earthquake risk perception, irrespective of the age, sex, education, household structure, economic status and trust in civil protection authorities. Findings highlight a profile of an individual in Greece with moderate to low earthquake risk perception and define a set of people at high-risk of facing the harmful consequences of future earthquakes.
Evidence from recent studies on socio-demographic and built-environment determinants of earthquake risk perception show important linkages with the results of this study. Specifically, in terms of age, the high-earthquake risk perception among older people that observed here is in line with the results of other studies too (Beck et al., 2012; Tian et al., 2014; Bronfman et al., 2016). This can be explained by the fact that older people living in highly risky areas, like the Corinthiakos Gulf, have already experienced significant damages and losses and survived several earthquakes in the recent period. These people may feel more exposed and threatened than the younger participants, which consequently, may have resulted in the high-risk perception of earthquakes.
Sex has traditionally been regarded as an important demographic determinant of earthquake risk perception. Results from the present study revealed that men were significantly associated with lower risk perception. This result is in accordance with the outcomes of similar studies (Kung and Chen, 2012; Tian et al., 2014; Bronfman et al., 2016; Fernandez et al., 2018). Davidson and Freudenburg (1996) explained this sex difference in risk perception through social roles and everyday activities. Women perform more the role of nurturer and care provider which is associated with concern about health and safety issues, and consequently about risks. Another explanation was provided by Fynn et al. (1994), who concluded that sex differences in risk perception may relate to sociopolitical factors, such as unequal power relations and different level of trust in authorities and institutions. According to the European Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction Roadmap 2021–2030 (EFDRR, 2021), one of the main enabling approaches for achieving the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 is an all-of-society inclusive approach which would support and engage at-risk groups in strategic planning. In particular, it is highly recommended to strengthen sex-responsive and age-sensitive policies, strategies and frameworks at all levels promoting the engagement of different socioeconomic parts of society and a shared understanding of risk. Furthermore, the European Consensus on Humanitarian aid, which was signed by the Council, the European Parliament, and the European Commission in 2007, highlights that natural hazards or human-induced crises are not sex and age neutral and stresses the need to integrate sex and age considerations in policy design. Thus, civil protection authorities should design sex- and age-oriented policies and customized measures to the specific population groups revealed in the study.
During the past years, several researchers have also demonstrated that individuals’ earthquake risk perception can be influenced by their income status. Results of the present study revealed that risk perception was negatively associated with income. Households with higher income status had lower earthquake risk perception as compared to those with a low-level income. Similar results have been reported by other researchers, such as Slovic (2000), Tian et al. (2014), Lo and Cheung (2015). One possible explanation is that individuals with higher income have the resources’ capacity to cope with the damages a high-magnitude earthquake can cause and, hence, may have a (false) sense of security, feeling a higher degree of control over earthquakes and that their lives are less threatened.
Contrary to previous findings that have highlighted low education (Armas, 2006, 2008; Tian et al., 2014) and household structure, i.e., widowed/divorced (Xue et al., 2021) as significant determinants of earthquake risk perception, the present study did not demonstrate such association. The same finding regarding both education and household structure holds for similar analyses made by Qureshi et al. (2021) and Tekeli-Yeşil et al. (2011). An explanation that could be given is that the sense of security that capture risk perception is not provided via formal education, in Greece, which is in fact true. There is a considerable lack of information about natural disasters and how to protect against them in school programs. Only sporadic lectures may be given in some, but not all schools. The lack of association with household structure may be attributed to the fact that the percentage of singles, divorced or widowed participants was relatively low in our sample (i.e., 29%), making the analysis underpowered.
Moreover, the current study revealed that households living in relatively new buildings (i.e., constructed after 1996) have lower earthquake risk perception. The low perception of earthquake risk of households living in relatively new buildings has been also highlighted by Tian et al., (2014) and Eraybar et al., (2010), while other studies do not prove a statistically significant link between age of buildings and earthquake risk perception (Armas, 2006; Tekeli-Yeşil et al., 2011). This finding can be explained by the fact that individuals may believe that the extent of damages and losses is attributed to the age of a building and the level of implementation of Seismic Codes; that is, they may feel that the newer the building, the safer for them, which results in a sense of security and, thus, low risk perception. Hence, through several media channels, local authorities should convey the message to their intended population strata that living in newly constructed buildings do not definitely ensure a high security from earthquakes’ damages and losses and capacity to cope and recover from such events.
Building earthquake insurance and trust[4] to the civil protection authorities, have been considered by many (Dwyer et al., 2004; Athavale and Avila, 2011; Xu et al., 2019) as key determinants of earthquake risk perception. The findings however, of the current study did not reveal any strong association with risk perception for both of them.
An additional finding of the study has been the positive correlation observed between safety knowledge-information (provided to the inhabitants by the authorities) with risk perception. Safety knowledge-information has appeared to be exerting an all-embracing positive influence to the local population, irrespective of age, sex, education, household structure, economic status and trust in civil protection authorities. Evidence from previous studies confirms the linkage between risk perception and natural disasters’ knowledge and engagement in risk management (Mileti and Fitzpatrick, 1992; Tekeli-Yeşil, et al., 2011). The more the citizen is informed about natural disasters, the better the risk perception has. Indeed, with the increasing number of various natural disasters observed the past years in various countries, i.e., forest fires, floods, earthquakes, and recently pandemics, whether natural or man-made catastrophes, greater information, understanding, and cooperation seems to be essential to strengthen civil protection and risk management. Following the proposed recommendations of the Third Meeting of the Civil Protection Directors-General of the Union for the Mediterranean (held in Barcelona, February 2019), issues like “Volunteers in Civil Protection” and “Engaging citizens in disaster risk management” were further studied and discussed in detail, by the European Commission, Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). Key conclusions of these studies were that to inform and engage citizens is a key component in natural disaster management. Citizens should be active actors in civil protection and usually are the first responders. Consequently, civil protection authorities of Corinthiakos Gulf should plan and develop activities designed specifically to aware and prepare the population to prevent and face large emergencies like earthquakes. Social activities, like social media and volunteers have an important role to increase risk perception and engage the citizens.
Taking into consideration also the aforementioned findings of the study regarding demographic and socio-economic determinants of risk perception, civil protection authorities should focus on designing targeted communication and informational strategies providing tailored informational brochures and materials regarding earthquakes in Corinthiakos Gulf, in order to engage and motivate the revealed population groups with low earthquake risk perception taking steps and increasing their knowledge. Furthermore, key activities, such as informational events, preparedness discussions and drills, along with participatory design of earthquake management policies and communication strategies, should also focus on these specific population groups so as to encourage their participation and engagement in disaster risk management.
The Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022 (UNDRR, 2022) argued that policymakers continue to undervalue the role of risk perceptions in shaping decision-making. A key recommendation of the report was that designing and reframing risk approaches to factor in how human minds make decisions about risk is a key action to accelerate risk reduction. Hence, civil protection authorities of Corinthiakos Gulf should concentrate their actions in understanding individuals’ earthquake risk perception and identifying their key determinants. The revealed determinants in this study can have practical implications for policy-makers in the area, as they could serve as fruitful insights for improving earthquake policies and communication strategies and, by doing so, beneficially change behaviors and attitudes towards earthquakes.
Limitations
The sample of the present study was not national as it is a place-based study and participants were recruited only from the area of Corinthiakos Gulf and, therefore, cannot represent the total Greek population living in urban regions. In addition, our sampling was not designed based on societal characteristics of the referent population (i.e., socio-economic status, educational level, household structure etc.) because of lack of such information, but it was only based on demographic characteristics (i.e., age, sex distribution of the studied referent population). Thus, representativeness of the studied sample regarding the aforementioned societal characteristics may be a concern.
[4] the issue of trust in relation to risk perception studies requires far more systematic attention; see Han et al. (2022).