This prospective study of critically ill COVID-19 patients with comprehensive serial data has four main findings. First, in our study, diabetes mellitus and previously unknown diabetes mellitus were highly prevalent. Second, we showed that non-survivors had higher mean glucose levels and higher maximum differences in glucose concentrations per day during ICU stay compared to survivors. These associations were independent of age, sex, BMI, APACHE II score, chronic kidney, pulmonary, and liver diseases, and cardiovascular risk factors. However, the association between mean glucose and survival weakened and was no longer significant during the second compared to the first COVID-19 wave. Third, we found no evidence to support our hypothesis that the presence of known and previously unknown diabetes mellitus (by high HbA1c) or steroid use worsens glycemic variability associated with prognosis. Finally, total insulin dosage did not differ between survivors and non-survivors, irrespective of diabetes mellitus status, in this cohort of critically ill COVID-19 patients.
Glucose concentrations and glucose variability are independent risk factors for ICU and hospital mortality among various ICU populations 14–19. The prevalence of known and previously unknown diabetes mellitus in severe COVID-19 is high and associated with a poor prognosis due to glucose dysregulation and other risk factors such as obesity, hypertension, etc. 25,26. Furthermore, recent studies on critically ill COVID-19 patients showed that those with glucose concentrations between 3.9 and 10.0 mmol/l had lower mortality than those with higher glucose concentrations 7 and high fasting glucose concentrations 5,6. In addition, data on COVID-19 patients admitted to the general ward showed that fasting glucose variability is associated with poor outcome 23,24,27. However, in these studies, only fasting glucose concentrations were used in the first week 27, the first two days24, or the first three days 23 of general admission. Our study extends these observations by showing adverse effects of 24-h glucose variability on ICU survival that decreased over time. Therefore, we establish glucose variability as a biomarker of dismal prognosis in COVID-19 in ICU.
From this perspective, it is somewhat unexpected that we observed that HbA1c had no interaction with the association between high glucose variability and mortality. However, it should be acknowledged that an HbA1c below 48mmol/mol does not exclude diabetes mellitus 28–30. This could have had a possible diluting effect on the results of disease outcome. Nevertheless, we observed similar results for a history of known diabetes mellitus not influencing the association between higher maximum glucose difference per day and mortality. Thus, we found no evidence that diabetes mellitus, whether known or previously unknown, based on high HbA1c, and a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, leads to unfavorable outcomes independent of glycemic parameters/dysglycemia. Alternatively, the observation that glucose variability, as reflected by daily maximum glucose difference, is associated with mortality may also be explained by the suggestion that glucose concentrations are suggested as a biomarker of systemic inflammation, whereas HbA1c is a proxy of glucose control in the past three months 8.
We found no evidence to support our hypothesis that steroid use worsens glycemic variability-induced prognosis. Although mean glucose concentrations were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors, this is in line with earlier findings that hyperglycemia worsens prognosis in ICU-populations 10,11,19 and COVID-19 5–7. Furthermore, this association was only present in the pre-steroid era wave 1. Thus, even though steroids exposed more patients to hyperglycemia, any association between mean glucose concentration and mortality was weaker rather than stronger (hence losing statistical significance) in wave 2. These observations suggest that the beneficial effects of steroids on mortality in COVID-19 seem to outweigh the harmful effects of steroids on glucose control in this cohort. Despite the aforementioned, maximum glucose difference is shown to be a strong determinant of worse outcome in previous studies in general critical care, regardless of pre-existing diabetes mellitus 31. Since we observed an association between higher maximum glucose difference per day and higher mortality, independent of known risk factors, comorbidities, without effect-modification by wave and known or unknown diabetes mellitus, we provide evidence to focus supportive care on in order to ameliorate survival of critically ill COVID-19 patients.
Daily total insulin dosage was administered following a standard ICU regimen. This variable not being statistically significantly different between survivors and non-survivors could be due to our relative insensitive approach to lump total insulin dose within one day, in contrast to an hour-to-hour insulin variability. However, we had no hour-to-hour data on insulin, which is a limitation of our study. It could also be that insulin dosage has considerable confounding by illness severity precluding the study of direct beneficial/harmful effects of insulin itself. Previous work by Uyttendaele and colleagues however found higher insulin sensitivity in non-survivors, whereas hour-to-hour insulin variability was equivalent in both non-survivors and survivors among a mixed-medical ICU population, suggesting equal controllability 32. Perhaps not directly generalizable to the present severe COVID-19 population, our results in the perspective of the previous findings by Uyttendaele strengthen the importance of improving glucose control in critical care.
We need to address some limitations. First, the study is a single-center study. It is observational, so no conclusions with regard to causality can be drawn. Next, we used pandemic waves as a proxy of steroid use as steroids became standard of care and were protocoled in the Netherlands from wave 2 onwards. This per-protocol approach allowed for investigating effect modification in an interpretable way as adding daily dexamethasone data would be more complicated, and due to the protocolized administration of dexamethasone to all wave 2 ICU-admitted COVID-19 patients, an intention-to-treat approach would likely not change our results. Finally, we used HbA1c for diagnostic purposes since it is a reliable measure of chronic dysglycemia. However, a value less than 48 mmol/mol does not completely exclude diabetes mellitus diagnosed using glucose tests 29,30. For future studies, it would be interesting to see which glycemic patterns our population had in terms of fasting and non-fasting glucose concentrations before their admission to the intensive care unit. The strengths of our study are the prospective and extensively phenotyped cohort having systematic data collection performed using a predefined protocol 33. Furthermore, we provide serial glucose measurements daily, which is very informative in providing measures of glucose variability.
In conclusion, known and unknown history of diabetes mellitus were often present in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU. Non-survivors had significantly higher daily maximum glucose differences throughout their ICU stay compared to patients with COVID-19 that survived their ICU stay. This effect was independent of age, sex, BMI and APACHE II score, chronic kidney, pulmonary, and liver diseases, and cardiovascular risk factors but was not modified by a history of diabetes mellitus or dexamethasone use during ICU stay. Our results point toward preventing hyperglycemia and large glucose variability in critically ill COVID-19 patients in the ICU.