Tobacco use prevalence in Africa decreased during the study period, and this reduction was significantly associated with the fiscal “R” component of MPOWER (represented by cigarette price) among men in the entire dataset of 40 countries. Further subgroup analysis of the five sub-regions of Africa showed heterogeneities in this effect, with the strongest associations observed in Western and Northern Africa. In general, this study suggests that tobacco policies (especially the fiscal policies) have been fairly effective in Africa, although this effect is much less pronounced for smokeless tobacco use than for tobacco smoking. Since this is the first study to evaluate the MPOWER package with a specific focus on the African continent, there is a dearth of evidence against which to compare these results.
In their global study, Husain et al. (2020) analysed a subgroup which was half-constituted of African countries and found a positive association between MPOWER scores and tobacco smoking prevalence. The current study’s use of price as a more realistic proxy for the fiscal “R” policy likely explains our contradictory results. Also, unlike the 2-year lag used in this study, Husain et al, applied a lag of 1 year, which may not be sufficient for impact transmission of introduced policies, especially in African countries. Lastly, the current study’s stratified analysis by sex and UN African sub-region likely revealed important nuances which Husain et al.’s global study was unable to unearth. Winkler et al. (2015) conducted a study of West-African countries only, and reported a general negative correlation between MPOWER policies and tobacco smoking. Similarly, the strongest negative associations between MPOWER policies and tobacco use in this study were found in West Africa. Similar to the findings of Ngo et al. (2017), the MPOWER policies were not significantly associated with tobacco use among women in our primary analysis of all countries. However, the stratification by sub-region showed a significant negative MPOWER association with female smoking in all regions except Central Africa, and with female SLT use only in Northern Africa.
A novel and important finding of this study is the apparent low effectiveness of MPOWER policies in reducing smokeless tobacco use in Africa. The regional analysis showed a significant negative association between MPOWER policies and SLT use only in Western and Northern Africa. In the other regions, there was either no significant association (Central Africa) or a positive significant association (Southern and Eastern Africa). This indicates that, in their current state, tobacco control policies are not optimally designed to address SLT use in Africa, where these products remain quite popular (Eriksen et al. 2012). For instance, tobacco taxes may not affect locally sourced tobacco products like dry snuff and chewing tobacco. Also, the levels of public knowledge of the harms of SLT use are lower than that of tobacco smoking, as shown in an Ethiopian study by Peterson et al. (2018). In the same study, over 10% of respondents believed that SLT use was a good way of seeking protection from evil spirits. This exemplifies the traditional and religious footing of SLT use in many African societies, and reflects a need for special policies focused on SLT use, especially education-based initiatives targeted at rural areas.
Considering the reported high prevalence of tobacco use among African adolescents, there is a need for increased tobacco control in order to prevent a future tobacco epidemic in the continent (Eriksen et al. 2012). This will require financial investment in specific tobacco control initiatives recommended in the MPOWER package, including prevalence surveillance and smoking cessation programs. Unfortunately, Heydari (2019) reported that only 2.5% of WHO African countries (viz. Seychelles and Mauritius) scored up to 85% in tobacco control policy strength, compared to 22.8% for the Americas and 18.8% for Europe. Indeed, these two African countries are respectively high-income and upper-middle income countries, suggesting a role of financial status on national tobacco control capability. In the current study, African countries in the upper middle-, lower middle- and low-income groups scored 7, 8 and 10 MPOWER composite points lower than high-income countries respectively, on average. Similarly, the WHO (2015) reported that high-, middle- and low-income countries spent $1.26, $0.03 and $0.0004 per capita respectively on tobacco control in 2013/2014. This financial reality raises serious concerns about the prospects of tobacco control in Africa.
Fortunately, the tobacco problem comes with a convenient and effective remedy in the form of tobacco taxation – a measure that has been touted by the WHO (2010) as the single most effective tobacco control policy. The WHO recommends excise taxes as the ideal form of tobacco taxation, since it raises the price of tobacco products relative to other articles and does not simply aim to account for inflation. Indeed, a plethora of evidence exists about the effectiveness of tobacco taxes, both in terms of reducing tobacco consumption and generating revenue (Chaloupka et al. 2012; Olivera-Chávez et al. 2010). The current study also showed tobacco taxes (as reflected in cigarette prices) to be the most widely effective tobacco control policy in African countries.
However, increasing tobacco taxes often has the undesired effect of creating a conducive environment for tobacco smugglers, who provide tobacco products at significantly lower rates by evading taxes. This is a particular concern for African countries due to porous regulatory mechanisms and an attendant proliferation of black markets (Joossens et al. 2009). Despite this adverse effect of increased smuggling, the World Bank (1999) asserts that raising tobacco taxes would still produce increased revenue and a decrease in tobacco consumption. As such, given the effectiveness of fiscal policies in this study, African governments should actively introduce tobacco taxes and fund more tobacco control and cessation initiatives using the generated revenue. For, in the words of Adam Smith (1776), “Sugar, rum and tobacco are commodities which are nowhere necessaries of life, which are become objects of almost universal consumption, and which are therefore extremely proper subjects of taxation”.
Strenghts & Limitations
Important strengths of this study include its use of longitudinal data from 5 distinct time-points, the introduction of a 2-year lag to allow for the manifestation of policy impact, and the assessment of both smoked and smokeless tobacco use prevalence as outcome variables. However, this study also has some important limitations. First, due to the ecological design, the study is subject to the limitations of ecological studies, including the ecologic fallacy. Also, the study’s reliance on secondary data results in a susceptibility to the weaknesses of each data source, e.g. variabilities in the design and conduct of the national surveys in different countries may introduce some information bias. Furthermore, the MPOWER scores used in this study measure the presence of tobacco legislation and not its implementation. This limitation inspired the use of cigarette prices as a more practical proxy for the R component. Lastly, the 10-year duration of this study may not be enough time for the observation of tobacco policy impact in some countries, although the WHO expected concrete observable results within 10 years of policy implementation (WHO, 2006).