OSeMOSYS
The Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) tool was used to model the scenarios in this study and the Simple And Nearly Done (clicSAND) interface was used for easier accessibility within OSeMOSYS (Howells et al., 2011; Cannone et al., 2022b). OSeMOSYS is a bottom-up, cost-optimisation model used for modelling future energy supply systems, and it ensures that all energy demands and constraints are met in its solution to the scenarios (Howells et al., 2011).
Energy supply follows a linear pathway in OSeMOSYS. Energy sources (e.g., imported natural gas) are converted into fuels (e.g., natural gas) which are then converted by technologies (e.g., natural gas powerplant) to meet a certain demand (e.g., industrial high heat). This is depicted in the Reference Energy System diagram (Fig. 3).
The main limitation of OSeMOSYS is that it does not model the flexibility of its generated energy pathways or the impact on natural resources like land and water. However, the scenarios in this study can be input into modelling tools like FlexTool (which models the flexibility of different energy sources for the electricity grid) and CLEWS (Climate, Land use, Energy and Water Systems model, which models the impact of energy production on different natural resource systems) to assess these effects (IRENA, n.d.; Beltramo et al., 2021).
Modelling Input
The scenarios in this study were created using the Morocco Starter Data Kit (Cannone et al., 2021). The Morocco Least Cost (Version 2) model was used as the foundation for all the scenarios (Cannone et al., 2022a). The time slices in the model were reduced from 96 to 8 for this study (to decrease the runtime with minimal loss of detail): winter day and night (December to February), spring day and night (March to May), summer day and night (June to August) and autumn day and night (September to November). The day slices represent 06:00 to 18:00 and the night slices represent 18:00 to 06:00.
The energy demand for 2015–2021 was taken from the Starter Data Kit (Cannone et al., 2021). However, the projected annual growth rate of energy demand from 2022 onwards was changed to 1.5% in 2022–2050 and 1% in 2050–2070 using the projected growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) and population in Morocco, because these are strongly correlated with energy demand (World Bank, 2022; United Nations, 2022). The percentages of each demand (residential cooking, industrial high heat, commercial electricity, etc.) within the total demand for each year were kept the same.
Transport demand was removed to allow for a more realistic investigation into energy security. Although transport constitutes approximately 35% of energy demand in Morocco, Morocco relies predominantly on oil imports to meet this demand (IEA, 2019c). Therefore, modelling the Independence 2050 scenario with transport produced infeasible results. Thus, transport was removed as a demand from all scenarios to allow comparison to Independence 2050.
The maximum imported electricity amount was set to the 2021 level for the full time period in all scenarios except the Independence 2050 scenario, to remove the choice of importing more electricity to meet demand (imported electricity was constrained to 0 by 2050 in the Independence 2050 scenario). The exported electricity amount was also set to the 2021 level for the full time period in all scenarios except the Independence 2050 scenario, to represent the continuation of Morocco’s geopolitical export relationships (exported electricity was reduced to 0 after 2021 to represent a fully independent energy system that only provides for local energy demands). Future planned electricity export pipelines (to Spain and the UK) were not input into the model because they will likely be dependent on private RE projects being built specifically for these export purposes, and this study solely focuses on the provision of local demand and existing exported electricity demand (Africa Energy Portal, 2019; Power Technology, 2022).
Figure 3 shows the current flow of energy in Morocco as a Reference Energy System (RES), using the data from the Morocco Starter Data Kit (Cannone et al., 2021). Imported energy commodities and local energy resources are listed along the left, feeding into the relevant power generators to meet demand on the right. The RES is a simplified depiction of how OSeMOSYS uses energy commodities to meet demand.
Scenarios
Base scenarios
Least Cost (LC):
The Least Cost (LC) scenario has no additional constraints applied.
Fossil Future (FF):
The Fossil Future (FF) scenario has a maximum energy infrastructure capacity investment constraint of 0 for all RE infrastructure from 2022 onwards, except biomass. Although biomass is not a fossil fuel, it is permitted in this scenario because it releases high quantities of carbon emissions, thus it could be considered to fit into a ‘Fossil Future’.
NDC:
The NDC scenario has a maximum capacity investment constraint of 0 on coal power plants from 2021 onwards (representing Morocco’s pledge for ‘no new coal’ at COP26 in Glasgow, 2021) (Jones, 2021). A limit on CO2 emissions of 75 Mt per year is added from 2030 onwards to represent Morocco’s target to reduce its CO2 emissions by 45.5% compared to an unrestricted emission trajectory (Royaume du Maroc, 2021). Morocco’s RE targets are added as minimum electricity generation constraints; see Table 1 in Background for details).
Security scenarios
Gas Diversification:
All NDC targets are included. The upper restriction on imported natural gas in the model is reduced to 30% of its original consumption in the Least Cost scenario, from 2022 onwards. This simulates the loss of imported natural gas from Algeria in late 2021, which provided approximately 70% of the natural gas needed in Morocco (Ratcliffe & Oriheula, 2022). A secondary imported natural gas commodity is added, with a price that is $5/GJ higher than the projected prices for the original imported natural gas commodity. This represents a more expensive LNG import that Morocco may have to rely upon to compensate for the loss in natural gas from Algeria. There is no upper restriction on the consumption of this secondary natural gas commodity. This scenario represents a ‘diversified dependence’ interpretation of energy security.
No Gas:
All NDC targets are included. The upper activity limit on natural gas power plants and fuel is constrained to 0 from 2022 onwards, to model the effect of removing natural gas from Morocco’s energy system completely.
Independence 2050:
All NDC targets are included. The upper activity restriction on imported electricity decreases from its 2021 activity level by one-third each decade after 2030, reaching 0 in 2050. Exported electricity is also constrained to 0 from 2021 onwards. The upper restriction on primary fuel imports (oil products, biomass, coal, natural gas and uranium) is set to 0 from 2050 onwards. Energy-efficient technologies are allowed to operate in this scenario to reduce demand (to allow the scenario to run feasibly). This scenario examines the impact of relying on local energy generation completely, representing an ‘energy independence’ interpretation of energy security.