This preprint is under consideration at Theoretical and Applied Climatology. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Palash Sinha
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7611-7382
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
This study presents the reversal nature in rainfall over heavy rainfall zone (HRZ; more than 80% of the long-period average (LPA) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR)) and low rainfall zone (LRZ; less than 40% of ISMR-LPA) in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) high-resolution (0.25˚×0.25˚) dataset is used from 1901 to 2016. The single and multiple change point detection techniques are used to find the change in rainfall pattern over both the regions. Further, the study period is divided into two halves P1 (1901-1958) and P2 (1959-2016) in order to study change in rainfall pattern in the recent and past periods. In P2, rainfall pattern gets reversed and interestingly ISMR has shown an increasing trend over LRZ and a decreasing trend is noticed over HRZ and the results are statistically significant. The increasing/decreasing number of moderate and high intensity rainfall events are the main cause for this reversal pattern. Additionally, the number of dry days is increased over the HRZ and deceased over the LRZ. This study further confirms that ‘dry becomes drier and wet becomes wetter’ paradigm is not solely acceptable for India. The present study provides information about changes in dry days and ISMR variability in the context of climate change, which will be useful to agricultural risk management, water resources, drought monitoring, model developers, and policy planer on the adaptation strategies for climate change.
Keywords
Indian summer monsoon, heavy and low rainfall, climate change, change point detection, dry days
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 17 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 08 Mar, 2021
Review #? received
Received 08 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 07 Mar, 2021
First submitted
On 04 Mar, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Climatology
Learn more about our company.
This preprint is under consideration at Theoretical and Applied Climatology. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Palash Sinha
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7611-7382
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 17 Mar, 2021
No community comments so far
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 08 Mar, 2021
Review #? received
Received 08 Mar, 2021
Editor assigned
On 07 Mar, 2021
First submitted
On 04 Mar, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Climatology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
This study presents the reversal nature in rainfall over heavy rainfall zone (HRZ; more than 80% of the long-period average (LPA) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR)) and low rainfall zone (LRZ; less than 40% of ISMR-LPA) in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) high-resolution (0.25˚×0.25˚) dataset is used from 1901 to 2016. The single and multiple change point detection techniques are used to find the change in rainfall pattern over both the regions. Further, the study period is divided into two halves P1 (1901-1958) and P2 (1959-2016) in order to study change in rainfall pattern in the recent and past periods. In P2, rainfall pattern gets reversed and interestingly ISMR has shown an increasing trend over LRZ and a decreasing trend is noticed over HRZ and the results are statistically significant. The increasing/decreasing number of moderate and high intensity rainfall events are the main cause for this reversal pattern. Additionally, the number of dry days is increased over the HRZ and deceased over the LRZ. This study further confirms that ‘dry becomes drier and wet becomes wetter’ paradigm is not solely acceptable for India. The present study provides information about changes in dry days and ISMR variability in the context of climate change, which will be useful to agricultural risk management, water resources, drought monitoring, model developers, and policy planer on the adaptation strategies for climate change.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Loading...