Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents
The sampled households were inhabitants of nine sub counties in Namisindwa district (Table 1). Majority of the respondents were male 80.7% (n = 271), while the rest were female. Going by religion, Catholics had the biggest proportion 38.4% (n = 129); followed by Anglicans at 35.1% (n = 118); Muslims at 15.8% (n = 53) and least were Seventh Day Adventists (Table 1). Considering education level, respondents had attained mainly primary education47.0% (n = 158) while a few of them had attained tertiary level education 8.7% (n=29) (Table 1).The major sources of income of the respondents were mixed farming 27.4% (n = 92) involving livestock and crop production.
Mortality and morbidity rates according to age, sex and breed of cattle
In terms of sex of the animals, male cattle were at more risk compared to their female counterparts (Table .2). Similarly, cross bred cattle and cattle at old age were more at risk compared to their respective counter parts. In terms of morbidity, the groups that were affected most were females (70.3%), old (41%) and cross bred (42.0%) cattle.
The following computations were made based on data obtained from primary sources
- Average price of hide UGX 15,455.357
- Average price of a newly born calf UGX 192,514.9
- Number of aborted calves were23
- Number of aborted cows were 23
- Average quantity of milk yield per cow 5.5 Liters
- Average price per litre of milk was UGX 1019.4
- Number of lactating infected cows were 76
- Average cost of treatment of LSD infected cattle UGX 110,979.3
- Average cost of vaccination UGX 2000
- Number of infected oxen’s 52
- Average days spent without ploughing 26
- Unit cost of ploughing an acre UGX 119,861.7
Economic impact of Lumpy Skin Disease in Namisindwa district
The total economic losses incurred by farmers in a single outbreak of LSD are estimated at UGX 574,999,741approximating to USD 155,406 in only investigated sub counties of Namisindwa district. The most prominent economic loss due to LSD is attributed to low milk yield in lactating cattle as well as poor drought power performance. Next major contributions to economic losses due to LSD after the aforementioned two factors are cost of veterinary services and mortalities of cattle. Economic losses associated with loss of calves, and skin losses were perceived to be the lowest (Figure 2).
Economic loss due to mortality of cattle as a result of LSD
Economic loss due to mortality of cattle as a result of LSD
= Number of cattle infected with LSD X Mortality risk X Average price of cattle …………………………………………………………………………………………..…(I)
Where Mortality risk (%) = [(Number of cattle dying of LSD)/(Number of LSD infected cattle)]X100 ……………………………………………………………………………………………(II)
Where, number of cattle dying of LSD = 39, number of cattle diseased with LSD = 199
Therefore, from equation (II) Mortality risk (%) = (39/199)*100 = 20%
From equation (I), economic loss due to mortality of cattle as a result of LSD = 199X 0.2 X1, 290,386.90UGX
Economic loss due to mortality of cattle as a result of LSD = UGX 51,357,398.62
4.4.2 Economic losses due to morbidity
Economic loss due to morbidity = (value of skin lost due to LSD+ value of calves lost due to abortion + value of milk lost due to LSD).
- Value of skin lost due to LSD = Number of infected cattle that did not die X average price of skin ………………………………………………………………………(III)
Where, Number of infected cattle that did not die = total number of infected cattle (n=199) minus total number of infected which died (n= 39) = (199-39 = 160; and average price of skin = UGX. 15,455.357
Therefore, from equation (III), Value of skin lost due to LSD = 160 X 15,455.357
Value of skin loss = UGX 2,472,857.143
- Value of calves lost due to abortion= number of calves lost due to abortion caused by LSD X Price of a calf
Where, number of calves lost due to abortion caused by LSD = 23 and price of a calf at birth was (192514.9± 65210.34)
Therefore, value of calves lost due to abortion=23 X 192,514.9
Since an animal produces at an average of once in a year,
Value of calves lost in abortion due to LSD= UGX4, 427,842.7
- Value of milk lost due to LSD in lactating cattle
= Value of milk lost due to abortion+ Value of milk lost among non-aborted infected cows due to LSD
Where, value of milk lost due to abortion = Number of animals that aborted X average quantities of milk produced per cow X price of each liter of milk……………………………………………………………………………………(IV)
Where, number of animals that aborted=23, average quantities of milk produced per cow = 5.5±3.1 liters and price of each liter of milk = UGX1019.4±124.6
Therefore, value of milk lost due to abortion = 23 X 5.5 X 1019.4 = UGX 128,954.1/= per day
Value of milk lost among non-aborted infected cows due to LSD= number of lactating infected cows X average quantities of milk produced per cow X average price of each liter of milk……………………………………………………………………………………….(V)
Where, number of lactating infected cows=76, average quantities of milk produced per cow per day= 5.5±3.1liters, average price of each liter of milk = UGX1019.4±124.6
Therefore, Value of milk lost among non-aborted infected cows due to LSD=76 X 5.5 X 1019.4
=UGX 426, 109.2 per day
Therefore, from equations (IV) and (V), total value of milk lost due to LSD in lactating cattle = 128,954.1+426, 109.2
=UGX 555, 063.3 per day
Therefore, on average 210 days of lactating, total value of losses associated with milk lost due to LSD = 555, 063.3*210
=UGX 116,563,293 per lactating period
- Cost of veterinary intervention
Cost of veterinary intervention= cost of treatment of infected cattle+cost of vaccination of cattle
Where, cost of treatment= Number of cattle infected X Average treatment cost per cattle…………………………………………………….…………………………………(VI)
Number of cattle infected=190, average treatment cost per cattle= UGX 110979.3±124227.8
Cost of treatment = 190 X 110979.3 = UGX 21,086,067
- Cost of vaccination of cattle against LSD
= Population of cattle at risk of LSD X Unit cost of vaccination
Where, population of cattle at risk of LSD in the district in the year 2017=25,000 and Unit cost of vaccination= UGX 2,000
Cost of vaccination of cattle against LSD=25,000 X 2000
=UGX 50, 000,000
Therefore, total cost of veterinary intervention= 21, 086, 067+50, 000,000
= UGX 71, 086,067 annually
(IV) Draught power
= Total number of affected oxen X Average number of days spent without ploughing X Unit cost of ploughing an acre in a planting season
Where, total number of affected oxen= 52, Average number of days spent without ploughing= 26.4±17.1 and Unit cost of ploughing an acre in a planting season = UGX 119,861.7±207400.2
Therefore, total value lost to draught power = 52 X 26.4 X 119,861.7
=UGX 164, 546, 141.8per planting season
In a year, there are two seasons, therefore, annual costs due to draught power losses = 164, 546, 141.8 X 2
=UGX 329,092,283.5
NOTE:
- Off take rate of beef was not considered in this study because farmers would not recall or estimate exact beef loss during the time of the outbreak.
- Reproductive rate was difficult to determine because it has long term morbidity and farmers cull animals that recover to guard against reoccurrence and transmission of the disease.
- Indirect losses or costs such as restricted trade and cattle movement was not considered in this study
Risk factors contributing to the occurrence and transmission of Lumpy Skin DiseaseinNamisindwa district
Households that frequently introduced new cattle in their herd[Odd ratio (3.9)]were 3time more likely to have cases of LSD in their farms than those that maintainedold herd, cattle from households that share common grazing places (e.g. play grounds, water points, and market grounds) [Odd ratio (OR) 10] were 10 times more likely to contract LSD than those in households practicing zero grazing system. Farmers with access to veterinary services were less likely to have cases of the LSD in their farms [Odd ratio (OR) 0.3] than those that never accessed veterinary services or do self-medication. Cattle on farms that never controlled ectoparasites were at a high risk of contracting Lumpy Skin Disease [Odd ratio (OR) 20.0] 20 times than those on farms that practiced control of ectoparasites through routine application of Acaricide on their cattle.
Regarding months when LSD outbreaks are common, respondents noted the months of July, August and September to be associated with peak periods of LSD (Figure 3).