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Research article
sean mccafferty
University of Arizona
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Purpose
Evaluate the correlation between state mandated social interventions and Covid-19 mortality
Design
Prospective design and retrospective analysis of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) state data.
Methods
Twelve European Union countries were selected on April 12, 2020 from IHME data which had clearly defined and dated establishment of statewide mandates for social distancing measures to include: School closures, stay at home orders, severe travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. The state Covid-19 mortality prevalence was defined as total normalized deaths to the peak daily mortality rate. The state mortality prevalence was correlated to the total number of mandates-days from their date of establishment to the peak daily mortality date. The slope of the maximum daily mortality rate was also correlated to mandate-days.
Results
The slope of standardized mortality per country did have a slight negative correlation to the total mandate days (R2 = 0.083, p= 0.36), though the negative correlation was not statistically significant. The standardized mortality prevalence to the peak mortality rate per country exhibited no discernable statistical correlation to the total mandate days (R2 = 0.004,p=0.85).
Discussion
The analysis appears to suggest a mandate effective reduction in the slope of the mortality rate, but no effective reduction in Covid-19 mortality to its defined initial peak when interpreting the mean-effect of the mandates as present in the data. The study is presented as a potential methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of state mandated social distancing policy.
Keywords
Covid-19, social intervention, standardized mortality prevalence, mortality rate
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research article
sean mccafferty
University of Arizona
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 01 Jun, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Purpose
Evaluate the correlation between state mandated social interventions and Covid-19 mortality
Design
Prospective design and retrospective analysis of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) state data.
Methods
Twelve European Union countries were selected on April 12, 2020 from IHME data which had clearly defined and dated establishment of statewide mandates for social distancing measures to include: School closures, stay at home orders, severe travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. The state Covid-19 mortality prevalence was defined as total normalized deaths to the peak daily mortality rate. The state mortality prevalence was correlated to the total number of mandates-days from their date of establishment to the peak daily mortality date. The slope of the maximum daily mortality rate was also correlated to mandate-days.
Results
The slope of standardized mortality per country did have a slight negative correlation to the total mandate days (R2 = 0.083, p= 0.36), though the negative correlation was not statistically significant. The standardized mortality prevalence to the peak mortality rate per country exhibited no discernable statistical correlation to the total mandate days (R2 = 0.004,p=0.85).
Discussion
The analysis appears to suggest a mandate effective reduction in the slope of the mortality rate, but no effective reduction in Covid-19 mortality to its defined initial peak when interpreting the mean-effect of the mandates as present in the data. The study is presented as a potential methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of state mandated social distancing policy.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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